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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↑ $110
YesNo
↑ $120
YesNo
↑ $100
YesNo
↑ $95
YesNo
↑ $105
YesNo
↓ $80
YesNo
↑ $115
YesNo
↓ $50
YesNo
↑ $150
YesNo
↑ $125
YesNo
↓ $70
YesNo
↓ $65
YesNo
↑ $170
YesNo
↑ $140
YesNo
↓ $40
YesNo
↓ $25
YesNo
↑ $200
YesNo
↑ $130
YesNo
↓ $60
YesNo
↓ $75
YesNo
AI Insights:
11 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Silver futures (May active contract) are trading around $79.30, having effectively breached the critical $80 psychological support. With only ~12 trading days remaining and a bearish trend dominating, the condition for '↓ $80' (hitting or dropping below $80) is virtually met, justifying a fair value near 99c. The market's focus has shifted to the '↓ $75' level; given Silver's high historical volatility (e.g., a 30% single-day drop in Jan), a test of this lower support remains plausible, pricing it around 56c. Meanwhile, as the time window narrows (Theta decay), premiums on deep OTM options like '↓ $70' and '↑ $95' are rapidly compressing.
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Hedging
Gold
Silver is often treated as a 'high-beta version of Gold,' with extremely high price correlation. While this event merely tracks price, if Silver triggers the extreme price options (e.g., a massive surge), it typically signals drastic shifts in macro inflation expectations or geopolitical risks. This would directly impact Gold and the Dollar Index (DXY) through correlation. Thus, this market serves as a direct hedging tool for precious metal portfolios.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of '↓ $70' dropped from 40c to 29.5c. The reason is that although Silver remains bearish (below $80), it has stabilized without a further panic crash. As expiration approaches (12 days left), accelerated Theta decay has significantly reduced the probability of reaching the extreme $70 target, causing this OTM option to sell off.
March 14, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the price of '↑ $95' plummeted from 27.5c to 12.5c. The reason is that the market further digested the reality of Silver breaking below the $80 threshold, essentially extinguishing hopes for a ~20% rebound by month-end, leading to an accelerated capital flight from out-of-the-money call options.
March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of the '↓ $80' option surged from 62.5c to 96c. This was caused by a sharp sell-off in Silver futures over the weekend and Monday morning, directly breaching the psychological $80 barrier and pushing this option deep into probable In-The-Money territory.
