Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
Tech|$83.9k Vol|
time229 days 1 hrs

Will Tesla release Optimus by...? - AI Found +11¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.12 16:55
Top Undervalued
+11¢
December 31(No)
+0.5¢
June 30(No)

Will Tesla release Optimus by...? AI analysis: • +11¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market prices still overestimate the probability of Optimus being released or available for ...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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"Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office

Top Undervalued
+24.5¢
>25m(Yes)
+24¢
22-25m(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
'Michael' grossed around $37 million in its third weekend. Following the typical trajectory for succ...
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Movers
May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026: The price of '>25m' surged from 49c to 65.5c, while '<19m' plummeted from 22c to 1.85c. This shift occurred because approaching weekend estimates and presales data indicated exceptionally strong legs for the movie, leading the market to rapidly price out the lower brackets.
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Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Although the GOP's House majority is razor-thin, a mid-session flip of the majority due to resignati...
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AI Analysis
Eurovision 3rd Place 2026
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time1 hrs 19 mins

Eurovision 3rd Place 2026

Top Undervalued
+15¢
Israel(No)
+7¢
Australia(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The implied total probability for the 3rd place market heavily exceeds 100% (significant vig), refle...
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Movers
May 12, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the Yes prices for multiple countries including Finland, Australia, Denmark, France, and Israel experienced massive volatility (swings of 20-30c). For example, Finland plummeted from 49c to 13c, while Australia spiked from 15c to 29c before retreating. This was caused by the conclusion of the semi-finals and final rehearsals, prompting the market to heavily reassess jury and televote potentials for this specific placement. May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the Yes prices for several countries (including Finland, France, Denmark, Israel, Italy, and Moldova) experienced extreme volatility, with many dropping from over 30c to the 10c-15c range. This was driven by semi-final performances and shifting public voting expectations, rapidly reshaping the highly specific third-place market.
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"Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office

Top Undervalued
+53¢
>15m(No)
+24.5¢
11-13m(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the release date approaches, updated tracking and pre-sales data indicate a much stronger opening...
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Movers
May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026: The price of the '<9m' option plummeted from 18.5c to 6c, and '9-11m' dropped from 27.5c to 9.5c. Meanwhile, '13-15m' saw high volatility, peaking at 35.5c. This shift was driven by better-than-expected late pre-sales data, leading the market to significantly upgrade its opening weekend box office projections.
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Eurovision 2nd Place 2026
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time1 hrs 19 mins

Eurovision 2nd Place 2026

Top Undervalued
+20¢
Australia(No)
+15¢
Finland(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of the 'Yes' prices for all options currently in the market far exceeds 100%, sitting at app...
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Movers
May 12, 2026 - May 14, 2026, prices for several top contenders (e.g., Denmark, Finland, Australia, Greece, Israel, United Kingdom) experienced severe fluctuations of over 10c (e.g., Australia dropped from 23.5c to 6c then rebounded, Denmark fell from 39c to 11c then rose to 19c, UK plummeted from 24c to 1.5c then back to 6c). This is due to low market liquidity and frequent shifts in public sentiment driven by rehearsal performances and media predictions nearing the final.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
December 31
YesNo
16¢
84¢
95¢
+11¢
June 30
YesNo
1.55¢
98.45¢
99¢
+0.5¢
⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
The definition of 'released' is very strict, requiring availability for purchase or paid preorder by the general public, excluding demos or non-paid waitlists. This differs significantly from a standard product unveiling. Additionally, the options list Dec 31 and June 30, but the rule text focuses on the June 30th deadline, creating potential confusion regarding the specific cutoff date for resolution versus the market expiration date.
Hedging
TSLA
This event is directly tied to Tesla (TSLA) delivering on the AI and robotics narrative supporting its high valuation. A successful public release of Optimus would be a massive technical milestone, likely causing significant stock appreciation (Score 4). Conversely, delays could hurt investor confidence. This volatility might have a minor spillover effect on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.

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