All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
YesNo
AI Insights:
1 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated, the regime has rapidly executed a succession plan, with the Assembly of Experts appointing his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader around March 9. The IRGC has imposed tight martial control across the country. According to US intelligence assessments cited by the Washington Post, the regime is consolidating power rather than disintegrating. Despite the ongoing war and internal protests, the probability of a total regime collapse satisfying the 'dissolution of core structures' criteria within the remaining 12 days is negligible. The current market price of ~4 cents primarily reflects a hedge against extreme tail risks (e.g., Mojtaba also being assassinated causing total chaos), while the realistic probability is close to 0.
Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Option_'No'
Plan Description:
The current price for Option 'No' is approximately 96 cents. Given that a new Supreme Leader is in place and the military controls the situation, the likelihood of a total regime collapse within 12 days is extremely low. Buying 'No' offers an absolute return of ~4%, translating to an annualized yield of over 120%, representing a highly attractive low-risk yield opportunity.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 4¢
|Annualized yield: 121.6%
Exotics
This is a serious geopolitical question, falling squarely into the standard macro category of prediction markets. While regime change is not a daily occurrence, the situation in Iran is a constant focus of international attention, making it neither absurd nor novel.
Hedging
Crude Oil
Gold
The fall of the Iranian regime would be a massive geopolitical shock. As a major oil producer and key controller of the Strait of Hormuz, the regime's collapse would create huge uncertainty regarding crude supply (whether due to production halts from civil war or expectations of sanctions relief), triggering extreme volatility in oil prices (Score 5). Additionally, such instability typically boosts safe-haven assets like Gold (Score 3). While the direct impact on US equities might be lower, a global energy shock would cause indirect volatility.
