Between May 7 and May 8, 2026, the price of '78-79°F' plummeted from around 49.5c to approximately 21.5c. Meanwhile, '74-75°F' rose from 8c to 23c, and '76-77°F' increased from 21.5c to 33.5c. This was driven by the latest weather forecasts slightly downgrading the expected overnight/early morning low temperatures, shifting probabilities toward cooler ranges.

Predicting a specific city's daily low temperature is a standard weather derivative in prediction markets. However, to the general public, unless they have upcoming travel plans, almost no one actively thinks about such trivial and specific metrics.

May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026: The price of 11°C surged from 11.5c to 29c, and 10°C experienced wild fluctuations from 11c to 27.5c, while 12°C plunged from 23.5c down to 7.5c. This was caused by near-term weather models correcting their forecasts as the date approached, ruling out higher temperatures and concentrating the probability around 10°C and 11°C.

The title asks for the temperature in Seoul, but the rules explicitly specify the Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI). Incheon is a coastal city and its temperature often differs from central Seoul, creating a classic rule trap. Additionally, the resolution data uses only whole degrees Celsius, so attention must be paid to rounding or truncation rules.

Between May 7 and May 8, 2026, the price of the 10°C option surged from 11.5c to a peak of 28c before settling at 24c. Concurrently, the 12°C option plummeted from 24c to 8.5c. This was driven by updated weather forecasting models revising the projected nighttime lows downward, causing capital to shift towards cooler temperature ranges.

May 8, 2026 (06:23) - May 8, 2026 (09:38), the price of 16°C plummeted from 33.5c to 2.45c, due to a significant downward revision in temperature forecasts, heavily reducing the likelihood of this outcome. May 7, 2026 (18:28) - May 8, 2026 (07:28), the price of 14°C dropped from 25.5c to 10c, similarly driven by forecasts trending towards colder temperature ranges. May 7, 2026 (20:38) - May 8, 2026 (09:38), the price of 12°C surged from 9.5c to 33c, as updated forecasts indicated cold air impacts pushing the expected minimum temperature into this bracket.

May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, David Ford's Yes price surged from 25c to 49c, Andrew Putnam fluctuated around 45-49c, and Aaron Rai spiked from 1c to 25c, mainly due to extreme market illiquidity where isolated orders caused drastic price swings. May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, Yes prices for multiple players (e.g., Chandler Blanchet, Pierceson Coody, Nicolai Hojgaard) skyrocketed from ~1c to 43-49c due to severe illiquidity or market manipulation, pushing the implied total probability way over 100%. May 4, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the Yes prices for most top options plummeted from around 45-50c to approximately 1-6c. This was due to early market illiquidity causing artificially high prices; as liquidity increased, prices corrected to normal levels reflecting actual low win probabilities.

The implied win probabilities of multiple players sum up to well over 100% (e.g., Andrew Putnam 43.2%, David Ford 41.95%, Pierceson Coody 25.05%, Nicolai Hojgaard 25%), which is mathematically and practically impossible in a real golf tournament. This indicates a severe market pricing anomaly, completely diverging from rational odds in mainstream sports betting markets.