Culture|$176 Vol|
73 days 4 hrsWill the Powerball jackpot hit $1 billion by May 31? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.10 09:33 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The Powerball jackpot reset on March 2, 2026 (won in Arkansas), and currently stands at est. $58M for March 11. Only ~35 draws remain until the May 31 deadline. Historical data indicates that growing from a reset to $1B typically requires 38-40+ consecutive rollovers (approx. 3-3.5 months); for instance, the July 2023 $1B run took 39 draws. With 'jackpot fatigue' from the massive Dec 2025 win likely dampening ticket sales, the growth rate will likely trail historical frenzies. Even assuming zero winners for the next 81 days (statistically unlikely), 35 draws is likely insufficient to hit $1B. Thus, 'Yes' is deeply overvalued given the insufficient runway.
Sign up to view more information
Divergence
Market pricing (18%) is significantly higher than the statistical probability (<5%). The market appears to overestimate the likelihood of back-to-back mega jackpots, ignoring the mathematical constraint that ~35 remaining draws are likely insufficient to grow the pot from $58M to $1B (historically requiring 38+ draws).
