What does the official US Senate legislative calendar for May 2026 look like, and are there any recesses or scheduling conflicts that could impact the passage of a reconciliation bill by the May 15, May 22, or May 31 deadlines?

AI-powered analysis for: What does the official US Senate legislative calendar for May 2026 look like, and are there any recesses or scheduling conflicts that could impact the passage of a reconciliation bill by the May 15, May 22, or May 31 deadlines?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

If there is no substantial progress on the reconciliation bill as mid-May approaches, how will time decay (Theta) specifically impact the odds of the May 15, May 22, and May 31 options?

AI-powered analysis for: If there is no substantial progress on the reconciliation bill as mid-May approaches, how will time decay (Theta) specifically impact the odds of the May 15, May 22, and May 31 options?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

When trading this Senate reconciliation bill market, what key fundamental indicators (e.g., opposing statements from swing Senators or a failed committee vote) should be set as a strict stop-loss red line for 'Yes' positions?

AI-powered analysis for: When trading this Senate reconciliation bill market, what key fundamental indicators (e.g., opposing statements from swing Senators or a failed committee vote) should be set as a strict stop-loss red line for 'Yes' positions?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

Politics|$10.6k Vol|

23 days 18 hrs

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...? - AI Found +39.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.05 04:03

Top Undervalued

+39.5¢

May 22(No)

+11¢

May 31(No)

+7.2¢

May 15(Yes)

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...? AI analysis: • +39.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Recent reports indicate that the Senate and House have just passed a budget resolution instructing c...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

May 22

YesNo

69.5¢

30.5¢

30¢

70¢

0¢

+39.5¢

May 31

YesNo

76¢

24¢

65¢

35¢

0¢

+11¢

Expand to view all 3 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Hedging

S&P 500

US 10Y Yield

Budget reconciliation bills typically involve massive fiscal spending or tax reform packages. The successful passage of such a bill materially alters market expectations regarding the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and corporate earnings, thereby triggering significant volatility in the S&P 500 (reflecting corporate earnings expectations) and the US 10Y Yield (reflecting inflation and debt issuance expectations).

Divergence

There is a severe divergence between market expectations and political reality, alongside a logical pricing error. The market implies a higher probability for passage by May 22 (51.5%) than by May 31 (44.5%), which is logically impossible as the former is a subset of the latter. Furthermore, the market assigns a 40.5% probability to passage by May 15, despite the fact that this is merely the deadline for committees to draft the bill, with leadership stating work will extend into late May, deeply contradicting the actual legislative timeline.