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Outcomes
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Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
YesNo
AI Insights:
11 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although the market price lingers at 15.6 cents, a US military offensive intended to 'establish control' over Iran is logistically and physically impossible within the remaining 12-day window. Such operations require months of overt troop buildup (e.g., Iraq 2003), for which there is zero supporting open-source intelligence. As the March 31 expiration approaches, Theta (time value) will accelerate the price toward zero. The current premium is driven entirely by geopolitical tail-risk hedging or irrational speculation, disconnected from the actual probability of military deployment.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Option 'No'
Plan Description:
The 'No' option is priced at 84.4 cents, implying an absolute return of ~18.5% in under two weeks. Given that a full-scale invasion requires months of preparation, the probability of a surprise invasion in the next 12 days is negligible, making this a high-probability 'Low Risk Yield' opportunity (Soft Arbitrage).Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 15¢
|Annualized yield: 526%
Rule Risk
The definition of 'invade' is strictly tied to a 'military offensive intended to establish control' over territory. This creates a significant risk where punitive airstrikes, missile campaigns, or naval blockades—regardless of intensity—would resolve as 'No' if there is no intent to hold ground. This differs from the colloquial understanding of 'war' or 'attack'.
Hedging
Crude Oil
LMT
Gold
S&P 500
This event would be an extreme 'Black Swan'. An invasion of Iran would threaten global energy choke points (Strait of Hormuz), causing Crude Oil prices to skyrocket. It would trigger massive risk-off sentiment, crashing global equities (S&P 500) while driving capital into safe havens like Gold and benefiting defense contractors (e.g., LMT).
Divergence
There is a severe divergence between market pricing (~16% invasion probability) and real-world military analysis. Mainstream defense analysis and OSINT indicate no logistical preparations for an invasion, placing the actual probability near 0%. The prediction market reflects hedging demand rather than objective probability.
