All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
December 31
YesNo
March 31
YesNo
AI Insights:
16 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
For the 'December 31' option, the window (Sep 6 - Dec 31, 2025) has closed with no qualifying event; the Jan 3, 2026 'Operation Absolute Resolve' occurred outside this period, making the Fair Value 0. For the 'March 31' option, while the Jan 3 raid fell within the timeframe, it failed the 'establish control' criteria. U.S. forces withdrew immediately after the decapitation strike. Crucially, the U.S. formally recognized Delcy Rodríguez as the sole Head of State on March 11 and raised the flag at the Caracas embassy on March 14, restoring diplomatic ties. These actions confirm Venezuelan sovereign control, negating the 'invasion' condition. The probability of a new invasion in the remaining two weeks is negligible.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' on the 'December 31' option
Plan Description:
A Low Risk Yield opportunity exists. The 'December 31' option covers a timeframe (2025) that has already passed without an invasion. The current pricing (Yes at 12.5c, implying No at 87.5c) likely reflects illiquidity rather than probability. Since the event outcome is factually determined (No), buying 'No' and holding until the March 31 settlement offers a risk-free spread of ~12.5c (100 - 87.5). The annualized yield is calculated based on the remaining ~12 days to settlement.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 12¢
|Annualized yield: 365%
Exotics
A U.S. invasion of Venezuela is a frequently discussed geopolitical topic, especially during U.S. administration transitions, making it not entirely absurd or unimaginable. However, like most extreme geopolitical events, it remains in the realm of unconventional forecasting.
Hedging
Crude Oil
CVX
Gold
S&P 500
If a U.S. invasion of Venezuela were to materialize, the impact on Crude Oil prices would be structural (Score 5), as Venezuela holds massive oil reserves; even with diminished output, conflict would disrupt supply expectations. Oil majors with assets in the region, like Chevron (CVX), would face direct impact. Additionally, war risk would drive Gold hedging demand and likely trigger broad market risk-off sentiment (S&P 500 downside).
