All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
December 31, 2026
YesNo
September 30, 2026
YesNo
June 30, 2026
YesNo
March 31, 2026
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.10 16:47 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The core logic is based on the official 'Season 1' end date of May 18, 2026. 1. **March 31**: The campaign is still active, and with only 20 days left, a launch is logically near-zero probability. Market price (4.7c) is overvalued. 2. **June 30**: The 6-week window from May 18 to end of June allows for a standard 'Snapshot-Sybil-Claim' process. While tight, it is feasible. The market's 36.5% pricing reflects pessimism regarding habitual crypto delays; fair value should be higher (45%). 3. **Sept/Dec**: If June is missed, a Q3 launch is highly probable. The market pricing Dec 31 at only 71.5% implies a ~30% chance of total project failure or indefinite delay in 2026. Given the active campaign, this risk premium is excessive; fair value should be >90%.
Sign up to view more information
Divergence
There is a divergence between market pricing and standard operational timelines. The official season end date (May 18) logically supports a Q2 launch (by June 30), which is typically a project's goal. However, the market prices a June launch at only 36.5% and the full-year success rate (Dec) at only 71.5%. This indicates significant distrust in the project's execution capabilities, well below the typical probability for an active project.
