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Outcomes
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Value
Value
Edge
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 18:15 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 15, 2026, with only ~3.5 months (106 days) remaining until the June 30 deadline, the window for impeachment is virtually closed. Given the GOP's continued firm control of the House and the absence of any recent catastrophic scandals to trigger internal revolt, the political foundation for impeachment is non-existent. Furthermore, the legislative calendar is tight, making the procedural steps (investigation, hearings, vote) nearly impossible to complete in time. The current market price of ~5 cents primarily reflects an insurance premium for 'black swan' events and a floor for anti-Trump sentiment, rather than a rational fundamental probability.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Option_'No'
Plan Description:
With 'Yes' at 5 cents and 'No' at 95 cents, summing to 100, there is no direct risk-free arbitrage. However, given the GOP-controlled House and the critically short time window, the actual probability of impeachment is near 0%. Thus, buying 'No' at 95 cents represents a low-risk, high-probability yield strategy (Soft Arb), essentially shorting a negligible political tail risk.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 5¢
|Annualized yield: 18.1%
Hedging
DJT
S&P 500
If Trump were to be impeached again, it would trigger significant political uncertainty. DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group), acting as a direct proxy for his political fate, would face extreme volatility risk (likely a crash). The broader market (S&P 500) would react negatively to political turmoil, especially if impeachment proceedings disrupt key economic policies. DXY and Bitcoin might see volatility as hedges, but the correlation is secondary.
