All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 31, 2026
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 22:10 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The core condition is whether a second meeting occurred before December 31, 2025. The current date is March 17, 2026, well past the deadline. Historical facts confirm that no second meeting meeting the definition took place between Trump and Putin in the latter half of 2025. This is a deterministic historical event with a 0% probability of occurrence. The remaining market price reflects only liquidity inefficiency or dead money; the final settlement will inevitably be 'No'.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' Option
Plan Description:
This is an absolutely risk-free arbitrage opportunity (Risk Score 5/5). Since the resolution window (deadline Dec 31, 2025) has closed and the event did not occur, the outcome is locked as 'No'. Buying 'No' at 97.75c and holding for approximately 13 days until settlement at 100c yields an absolute return of ~2.25%, translating to an annualized yield of ~64.6%.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 2¢
|Annualized yield: 64.6%
Rule Risk
Critical timeline conflict and logic gap detected. The resolution deadline (Dec 31, 2025) has already passed relative to the current system time (Feb 10, 2026), yet the market remains open. This implies either a typo in the rule text (meant 2026) or a 'zombie market' scenario awaiting confirmation of a past event. Furthermore, the distinction between a 'continuation' of the Aug 15 summit and a 'separate occasion' is subjective and prone to disputes.
Hedging
Crude Oil
Gold
S&P 500
A second meeting between Trump and Putin would strongly imply progress in Ukraine peace negotiations. Such an event would likely be interpreted as a de-escalation of geopolitical risk, causing a sharp drop in Crude Oil prices (removing the war premium), while potentially boosting equities (S&P 500) and reducing demand for safe havens like Gold.
Divergence
There is an extremely significant pricing divergence. In reality, the probability of the event occurring is 0% (as the deadline passed without the event happening), yet the prediction market still prices it at 2.25c (~2.25% probability). This divergence does not stem from conflicting opinions but from the 'dead money' phenomenon common in prediction markets—where, after an event is confirmed not to happen, holders are unwilling to sell at near-zero prices due to mental accounting or friction, preventing the price from strictly converging to zero immediately.
