All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.11 15:55 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the geopolitical context of March 2026, the probability of 'Yes' is negligible. 1) Active War: The US and Iran are in open conflict ('Operation Epic Fury'), and US strikes on Feb 28 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, placing relations at an all-time low. 2) Personal Vendetta: Mojtaba Khamenei has just succeeded his father (killed by US forces) and, as a hardliner, would practically never accept a direct call with Trump within 20 days of his accession. 3) Official Stance: Iranian President Pezeshkian explicitly ruled out 'direct negotiations' with the Trump administration, agreeing only to 'indirect' talks via Oman, which does not meet the market's definition of a 'Talk'. 4) Time Constraints: With only 20 days remaining until March 31, arranging a direct head-of-state interaction amidst active bombings is virtually impossible. The current 4.5c price likely reflects a 'Trump volatility' premium rather than realistic odds.
Sign up to view more information
Hedging
Crude Oil
LMT
DXY
Gold
S&P 500
This event is directly correlated with the ongoing US-Iran war (March 2026). A 'Yes' resolution (a talk) would be perceived as a major de-escalation or ceasefire signal, causing a massive crash in Crude Oil (war premium) and Gold, a pullback in defense stocks (e.g., LMT), and a likely sharp rally in equities (SPX). Conversely, 'No' implies the continuation of the war and regime change policy, maintaining high oil prices and risk-off sentiment.
