According to the latest weather forecasts from sources like Met Office and Google Weather, the high ...

March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the '18°C or higher' option plummeted from 26.5c to 5.5c, and the '17°C' option dropped from a peak of 25.5c to 12.5c. This occurred because updated weather models solidified a cooler forecast (highs around 13-16°C) as the target date approached, eliminating previous expectations of unseasonable warmth.

Based on the current prediction market price trends, the 'Yes' price for 6°C is currently the highes...

From March 24, 2026, 23:05 to March 25, 2026, 14:15, the price of the '4°C' option crashed from 13c to 4.5c. This was caused by weather forecasts indicating high temperatures were unlikely to be as low as 4°C as the expiration approached. From March 24, 2026, 16:35 to March 25, 2026, 06:40, the price of the '7°C' option crashed from 26c to 16.5c, likely due to forecast models briefly revising down the expected high temperatures. From March 23, 2026, 15:40 to March 24, 2026, 00:20, the price of the '4°C' option crashed from 29c to 15.5c, caused by updated weather models ruling out extreme low temperatures. From March 22, 2026, 10:25 to 18:00, the price of the '9°C or higher' option crashed from 50c to 2c. This was caused by updated weather models confirming a cold front and snow, effectively eliminating previous expectations of warmer spring weather.

As the target date (March 26) has arrived, the latest weather models and real-time data have signifi...

This is a niche market focusing on the weather of a specific city on a specific date. While weather forecasting is common, as a specific trading instrument, it is more esoteric than elections or major sports events, falling into the medium exotic category.

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the prices of the '13°C' and '12°C' options surged from ~23c and 10.5c to 53.5c and 32.5c respectively, due to approaching resolution and updated meteorological data showing stronger-than-expected impacts from cold air or rain, heavily suppressing the forecast high. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the '16°C or higher' option plummeted from a peak of 45c to 0.5c, '15°C' fell from 30c to 3.3c, and '14°C' dropped from 34.5c to 11.5c, as earlier warm sector forecasts were completely revised to cooler, likely wet conditions by weather stations.

The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) forecasts island-wide highs of 35-36°C for March 26. Howe...

March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of 33°C surged from 17c to 57.5c, as approaching date official high-temperature warnings cemented the market's belief in significantly warmer actuals at Changi Airport. March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of 32°C experienced heavy volatility, initially spiking from 17c to 39.5c before retreating to 24.5c, reflecting nuanced market hedging on the exact temperature landing spot (32°C vs 33°C). March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of 31°C plummeted from 22c to roughly 4c, as the certainty of extreme heat entirely erased the probability of lower temperature outcomes.

There is an apparent divergence. Mainstream media and official MSS warnings heavily broadcast expected highs of 35-36°C, yet the prediction market is strongly betting on 33°C. This discrepancy essentially stems from geographical differences in measurement (island-wide max vs. the coastal Changi Airport station). Furthermore, the resolution source (Wunderground) may still have slightly lagging proprietary forecasts, causing a minor deviation from market pricing, which experienced traders have already factored in.

According to the latest official Wunderground forecast for the VILK station, the high temperature fo...

This is a location-specific weather prediction market. While weather forecasting is common, betting on the exact maximum temperature for a specific date in Lucknow, India, is a relatively niche and granular market compared to mainstream elections or sports events.

March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the '36°C' option fluctuated and rose from 10.5c to 35.5c, as the official Wunderground forecast gradually adjusted the high temperature upward to 97°F (36°C) approaching the resolution date. March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '34°C or below' initially spiked from 26c to 49.5c but then quickly retreated to around 23c as weather forecasts confirmed a warming trend. March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of '37°C' crashed from 16.5c to around 5.5c, as major weather models previously converged on lower temperatures (around 35°C), effectively pricing out more extreme highs.

The market currently prices 35°C as the favorite (37.5c), closely followed by 36°C (30.5c). However, the sole resolution source for this market (Wunderground VILK forecast) has recently updated the high for March 26 to 97°F (36°C). This indicates that the market is lagging behind the latest official data, presenting a notable divergence.