[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest campaign updates for the Wisconsin Democratic Primary (such as official announcements from Sara Rodriguez or Mandela Barnes), analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for top candidates in the Polymarket order book, and assess liquidity risks or arbitrage opportunities.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest campaign updates for the Wisconsin Democratic Primary (such as official announcements from Sara Rodriguez or Mandela Barnes), analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for top candidates in the Polymarket order book, and assess liquidity risks or arbitrage opportunities.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest data from the "Marquette Law School Poll" or "Milwaukee Journal Sentinel" regarding the 2026 Democratic Governor Primary, and compare the polling support for candidates like Chris Larson and David Crowley against their current Polymarket odds for significant deviations.

AI-powered analysis for: [Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest data from the "Marquette Law School Poll" or "Milwaukee Journal Sentinel" regarding the 2026 Democratic Governor Primary, and compare the polling support for candidates like Chris Larson and David Crowley against their current Polymarket odds for significant deviations.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of August 11, 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking up funds for approximately 5 months. Compare this against risk-free yields in DeFi protocols over the same period to evaluate if the potential ROI on the current favorite is sufficient to cover the time cost.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of August 11, 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking up funds for approximately 5 months. Compare this against risk-free yields in DeFi protocols over the same period to evaluate if the potential ROI on the current favorite is sufficient to cover the time cost.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$3,838 Vol|

144 days 13 hrs

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Sara Rodriguez

YesNo

31¢

69¢

16¢

84¢

0¢

+15¢

Francesca Hong

YesNo

21.4¢

78.6¢

30¢

70¢

+8.6¢

0¢

Mandela Barnes

YesNo

41.5¢

58.5¢

33¢

67¢

0¢

+8.5¢

David Crowley

YesNo

8.2¢

91.8¢

10¢

90¢

+1.8¢

0¢

Kelda Roys

YesNo

4.5¢

95.5¢

6¢

94¢

+1.5¢

0¢

Chris Larson

YesNo

0.9¢

99.1¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.9¢

Missy Hughes

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

1¢

99¢

+0.7¢

0¢

Brett Hulsey

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

1¢

99¢

+0.7¢

0¢

Tom Nelson

YesNo

0.35¢

99.65¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.3¢

Melissa Agard

YesNo

0.3¢

99.7¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.3¢

Zachary Roper

YesNo

0.3¢

99.7¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.3¢

Tim Jacobson

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.2¢

Joel Brennan

YesNo

0.9¢

99.1¢

1¢

99¢

+0.1¢

0¢

AI Insights:

6 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on late February 2026 polling from Marquette Law School (reported via Fox6 News), Francesca Ho...

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Divergence

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market currently prices Sara Rodriguez as the clear second favorite (31c), significantly above Francesca Hong (19c). However, late February 2026 polling (Marquette) and media reporting (Fox6 News) explicitly state that Hong is polling in a tie for the lead (with Barnes), while Rodriguez is actually trailing Hong. The market appears to be over-indexing on Rodriguez's 'Lt. Governor' title while ignoring the most recent voter data.

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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