[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Polymarket page for the Wyoming GOP Primary to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for top contenders like Harriet Hageman and Chuck Gray. Update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risk by factoring in incumbent Mark Gordon's eligibility (term limits) and the potential impact of a Donald Trump endorsement.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Polymarket page for the Wyoming GOP Primary to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for top contenders like Harriet Hageman and Chuck Gray. Update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risk by factoring in incumbent Mark Gordon's eligibility (term limits) and the potential impact of a Donald Trump endorsement.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Legal/Reality Barriers: Consult the Wyoming Constitution regarding gubernatorial term limits to verify if the incumbent option "Mark Gordon" is legally eligible to run for a third term in 2026. If he is term-limited, analyze why the market still prices this option and assess if this presents a "dead money" arbitrage opportunity.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Legal/Reality Barriers: Consult the Wyoming Constitution regarding gubernatorial term limits to verify if the incumbent option "Mark Gordon" is legally eligible to run for a third term in 2026. If he is term-limited, analyze why the market still prices this option and assess if this presents a "dead money" arbitrage opportunity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the primary resolution date of August 18, 2026, calculate the implicit cost of locking up capital. Compare the potential ROI of betting on frontrunners (e.g., Megan Degenfelder or Harriet Hageman) against the risk-free yield of holding DeFi stablecoins or Treasuries for the same duration to determine if the current odds justify the time-lock.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the primary resolution date of August 18, 2026, calculate the implicit cost of locking up capital. Compare the potential ROI of betting on frontrunners (e.g., Megan Degenfelder or Harriet Hageman) against the risk-free yield of holding DeFi stablecoins or Treasuries for the same duration to determine if the current odds justify the time-lock.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$18.8k Vol|

152 days 1 hrs

Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Mark Gordon

YesNo

5.2¢

94.8¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+5.2¢

Eric Barlow

YesNo

13.95¢

86.05¢

18¢

82¢

+4¢

0¢

Megan Degenfelder

YesNo

74.6¢

25.4¢

78¢

22¢

+3.4¢

0¢

Chuck Gray

YesNo

2.25¢

97.75¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+1.2¢

Brent Bien

YesNo

3.2¢

96.8¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+1.2¢

Joseph Kibler

YesNo

0.75¢

99.25¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.7¢

Harriet Hageman

YesNo

1.35¢

98.65¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+0.3¢

Bo Biteman

YesNo

0.35¢

99.65¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.3¢

Paul Ulrich

YesNo

0.4¢

99.6¢

0¢

Cheri Steinmetz

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

Reid Rasner

YesNo

0.35¢

99.65¢

0¢

Tara Nethercott

YesNo

0.35¢

99.65¢

0¢

Chip Neiman

YesNo

0.35¢

99.65¢

0¢

Ogen Driskill

YesNo

0.9¢

99.1¢

0¢

Curt Meier

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.03 21:26 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The market's total premium has corrected significantly, with the total implied probability now close to 100%. Mark Gordon is term-limited and ineligible to run, rendering his fair value 0. Harriet Hageman and Chuck Gray have focused on other offices, so their value should be near zero. The race has effectively narrowed to Megan Degenfelder (Frontrunner) vs. Eric Barlow (Primary Challenger). Degenfelder, as the incumbent Superintendent, has consolidated the MAGA/Establishment base, justifying a value over 75c. Barlow, the former Speaker, has emerged as the sole viable alternative, absorbing support lost by Bien and Gray, warranting an upgrade to ~18c. Brent Bien's price collapse indicates a loss of campaign momentum.

Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner