[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Polymarket page for the Wyoming GOP Primary to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for top contenders like Harriet Hageman and Chuck Gray. Update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risk by factoring in incumbent Mark Gordon's eligibility (term limits) and the potential impact of a Donald Trump endorsement.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Polymarket page for the Wyoming GOP Primary to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for top contenders like Harriet Hageman and Chuck Gray. Update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risk by factoring in incumbent Mark Gordon's eligibility (term limits) and the potential impact of a Donald Trump endorsement.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Legal/Reality Barriers: Consult the Wyoming Constitution regarding gubernatorial term limits to verify if the incumbent option "Mark Gordon" is legally eligible to run for a third term in 2026. If he is term-limited, analyze why the market still prices this option and assess if this presents a "dead money" arbitrage opportunity.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Legal/Reality Barriers: Consult the Wyoming Constitution regarding gubernatorial term limits to verify if the incumbent option "Mark Gordon" is legally eligible to run for a third term in 2026. If he is term-limited, analyze why the market still prices this option and assess if this presents a "dead money" arbitrage opportunity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the primary resolution date of August 18, 2026, calculate the implicit cost of locking up capital. Compare the potential ROI of betting on frontrunners (e.g., Megan Degenfelder or Harriet Hageman) against the risk-free yield of holding DeFi stablecoins or Treasuries for the same duration to determine if the current odds justify the time-lock.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the primary resolution date of August 18, 2026, calculate the implicit cost of locking up capital. Compare the potential ROI of betting on frontrunners (e.g., Megan Degenfelder or Harriet Hageman) against the risk-free yield of holding DeFi stablecoins or Treasuries for the same duration to determine if the current odds justify the time-lock.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner

Politics|$50.7k Vol|

105 days 22 hrs

Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.30 04:01

Top Undervalued

+3¢

Reid Rasner(No)

+3¢

Chip Neiman(No)

+2.7¢

Eric Barlow(Yes)

Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner AI analysis: • +3¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Megan Degenfelder has further consolidated her lead with solid statewide support and name recognitio...

🔓 Log in to see more

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Reid Rasner

YesNo

3.05¢

96.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+3¢

Chip Neiman

YesNo

3.05¢

96.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+3¢

Expand to view all 15 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

Apr 27, 2026 - Apr 29, 2026, the prices of multiple fringe candidates like Ogen Driskill and Tara Nethercott saw abnormal spikes on Apr 28 (e.g., Driskill surged from 1.1c to 39.8c before correcting to 6.1c). This was caused by low market liquidity resulting in 'fat-finger' trades or indiscriminate short-term market sweeps, with no actual changes in political fundamentals. Mar 01, 2026 - Mar 03, 2026, Brent Bien's price drifted down from 10.25c to 2.7c, as support further consolidated around Eric Barlow and Megan Degenfelder, with the market discounting Bien's viability as a previous runner-up. Feb 09, 2026 - Feb 10, 2026, Megan Degenfelder's price surged from 53.5c to 71.6c, while Chuck Gray's price crashed from 36.7c to 13.5c, driven by reports that Gray declined to run for Governor, causing a rapid consolidation of the conservative vote around Degenfelder.