[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the odds distribution for different options (25%+/50%+) and slippage risk given the $7k liquidity, and simultaneously check the official Epoch AI website to confirm if the current SOTA baseline score is anywhere near 25% to reassess the reasonableness of the long/short odds.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the odds distribution for different options (25%+/50%+) and slippage risk given the $7k liquidity, and simultaneously check the official Epoch AI website to confirm if the current SOTA baseline score is anywhere near 25% to reassess the reasonableness of the long/short odds.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Rule Pitfall] Data Source Reliability Check: Focusing on the resolution rule that "only the Epoch AI leaderboard counts," search for the historical update frequency of the Epoch AI FrontierMath leaderboard (real-time vs. quarterly) to confirm the probability of the leaderboard completing testing and updating data before the June 30 deadline if Grok 3 is released in May-June.

AI-powered analysis for: [Rule Pitfall] Data Source Reliability Check: Focusing on the resolution rule that "only the Epoch AI leaderboard counts," search for the historical update frequency of the Epoch AI FrontierMath leaderboard (real-time vs. quarterly) to confirm the probability of the leaderboard completing testing and updating data before the June 30 deadline if Grok 3 is released in May-June.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Grok 3 Timeline & Math Capabilities: Search for the latest statements from Elon Musk or xAI regarding the "Grok 3" release window, and specific leaks concerning "complex mathematical reasoning" or FrontierMath benchmarks, to determine if there is a decisive catalyst capable of jumping the model's score from single digits to over 25% before June 30.

AI-powered analysis for: [Potential Catalyst Prediction] Grok 3 Timeline & Math Capabilities: Search for the latest statements from Elon Musk or xAI regarding the "Grok 3" release window, and specific leaks concerning "complex mathematical reasoning" or FrontierMath benchmarks, to determine if there is a decisive catalyst capable of jumping the model's score from single digits to over 25% before June 30.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Tech|$20.8k Vol|

58 days 0 hrs

xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30? - AI Found +10.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.25 19:05

Top Undervalued

+10.5¢

25%+(Yes)

+7.5¢

30%+(Yes)

+0.5¢

50%+(No)

xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30? AI analysis: • +10.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market has corrected its previous severe probability inversion, and the implied probabilities ac...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

25%+

YesNo

45.5¢

54.5¢

56¢

44¢

+10.5¢

0¢

30%+

YesNo

44.5¢

55.5¢

52¢

48¢

+7.5¢

0¢

Expand to view all 4 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Hedging

TSLA

FrontierMath is designed to stump current AI models. If Grok achieves a score of 25%+, it would signal a massive breakthrough in reasoning capabilities, potentially leapfrogging OpenAI and Google. This would directly boost sentiment for the Musk ecosystem, serving as a positive catalyst for TSLA (Score 3) as a proxy for Musk's AI prowess, while pressuring competitors like MSFT (OpenAI) and GOOGL. It is a classic tech-breakthrough event with tradable volatility.

Movers

April 22, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the 25%+ option declined from 69c to 55.5c, likely due to a cooling of short-term optimism regarding Grok's ability to clear the baseline threshold soon, or profit-taking driving the price back towards its fair value. March 5, 2026 - March 8, 2026, the 50%+ option surged from 13c to 26.5c (doubling), representing a rapid recovery after a flash crash on March 4 (where it fell from 26c to 13c). This V-shaped recovery likely stems from a liquidity correction or a market reassessment of xAI's potential to breakthrough in the highest difficulty tier. Feb 9, 2026 - Feb 10, 2026, the 30%+ option declined from 61c to 56c, indicating a brief pullback in confidence for high tiers. Notably, one month later, this option has rebounded and rallied to a much higher level, demonstrating a fundamental reversal in market sentiment.