All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
40-59
YesNo
100-119
YesNo
140-159
YesNo
120-139
YesNo
160-179
YesNo
80-99
YesNo
180-199
YesNo
20-39
YesNo
200+
YesNo
<20
YesNo
60-79
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 09:37 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the simulated March 2026 scenario, Zelenskyy is in a peak diplomatic lobbying period (Paris/Kyiv meetings) addressing the Iran war and US sanctions waivers. referencing his historical wartime social media cadence (~5-8 posts/day including RTs and quotes), the 7-day total volume is most likely to fall between 35 and 60. Current market pricing is deeply inefficient, with almost all options priced around 40 cents, failing to reflect a rational probability distribution.
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Exotics
Predicting the exact volume of tweets by a political figure over a specific period is a somewhat niche market. While Zelenskyy is a high-profile figure, betting on his posting frequency rather than the content of his posts falls under 'Props' bets, making it less mainstream than election outcomes or war results.
Divergence
There is severe divergence and distortion in market pricing. The market implies a probability of ~40% for *every* interval, which is mathematically impossible (sum should be 100%). Furthermore, based on Zelenskyy's diplomatic schedule and historical activity, the volume should rationally cluster in the 40-60 range, rather than the flat distribution shown by the market.
