#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?
Culture|$14.6k Vol|
time9 hrs 18 mins

#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 10? - AI Found +12¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 1 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+12¢
Shadowrocket(Yes)
+1.5¢
HotSchedules(No)
+1.3¢
Procreate Pocket(No)

#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 10? AI analysis: • +12¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest prediction market trends, Shadowrocket has established absolute dominance, with ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
Tech|$148.8k Vol|
time81 days 9 hrs

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+2¢
(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
4¢
Arbitrage
20.2%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' at 95.5c and hold to maturity (Soft Arb / Low-risk yield). Plan Description: Given the astronomically low probability of these two giants announcing a merger within 85 days, buy...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
With only about 85 days left until the June 30, 2026 deadline, a merger between Tesla and SpaceX fac...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
This is not a completely absurd idea given the shared CEO and synergies (e.g., Cybertruck materials, Starlink integration), but it is not a mainstream expectation. Merging a public giant with a private giant involves massive regulatory and financial complexities, making it a 'plausible but unconventional' scenario.
Hedging
Nasdaq 100
DOGE
TSLA
An announcement of a merger would be a nuclear event for TSLA stock. Merging SpaceX (a high-valuation unicorn) into Tesla could re-rate TSLA's value significantly, but could also trigger a massive sell-off due to dilution fears or increased risk profile (Mars mission uncertainties). DOGE, as a Musk-proxy asset, would also see high volatility. The Nasdaq 100 would be affected due to Tesla's weighting.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'Tesla and SpaceX merger' event on Polymarket to analyze the implied market probability. Combine this with Elon Musk's recent public statements (e.g., tweets about 'X' super-app or conglomerate structure) and SEC filings to assess if the current price is fair or if there is a premium on the 'Yes' side driven by retail hype surrounding Musk.
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto|$21.8k Vol|
time631 days 14 hrs

Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Top Undervalued
+25¢
$100M(Yes)
+20.5¢
$300M(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Relay is backed by top-tier VCs including Archetype, USV, a16z, and Khosla, suggesting an infrastruc...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
This is a prediction on the future valuation of a specific crypto protocol (Relay). It is a standard topic for crypto insiders but obscure to the general public. It's not an absurd novelty market, but rather a typical niche financial speculation market.
Movers
March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of the $900M option spiked from 8c to 18.5c, likely due to a single large buy order sweeping thin liquidity, before dropping back to 7.5c on the 25th. March 6, 2026 - March 8, 2026, the price of the $900M option plummeted from 17.5c to 6.5c, likely due to the market correcting previous irrational pricing or thin buy orders being cleared, returning to a more reasonable probability range.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket Relay FDV page to analyze the odds spreads and liquidity depth across different valuation tiers (e.g., $300M vs $800M), and synthesize user discussions regarding Tokenomics and airdrop timelines to assess fair value and arbitrage opportunities.
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Science|$40.5k Vol|
time355 days 9 hrs

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+9¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of late March 2026, no VEI 6 eruption has occurred this year. According to Smithsonian GVP histor...
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Exotics
While volcanic eruptions are natural phenomena, a VEI 6 event (like Pinatubo in 1991) is extremely rare and unpredictable, classifying it as a 'black swan' event. It's not a daily concern for the public but is a standard hypothesis in disaster prediction circles.
Hedging
Crude Oil
S&P 500
Gold
A VEI 6 volcanic eruption is a global catastrophe (potentially causing a 'volcanic winter') with devastating effects on aviation, agriculture, and supply chains. If it occurs, it would trigger severe market panic, causing a significant drop in equities (e.g., S&P 500) while boosting safe-haven assets like Gold. Crude Oil would see volatility due to conflicting shocks of demand destruction vs. supply chain disruption.
Divergence
The prediction market price implies an occurrence probability of over 11%, whereas mainstream geological consensus and historical base rates indicate the probability of a VEI 6 eruption in any single year is typically under 2%. This divergence stems from retail traders' lottery-ticket mentality and fascination with catastrophic events, rather than any actual increase in risk based on scientific observations.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026' event to analyze the order book depth and user discussions. Assess whether the current price for 'Yes' is inflated by recent minor volcanic activity (e.g., Iceland or Indonesia) and evaluate the liquidity risks considering the long-term resolution timeline.
Bank of England decision in June?
Economy|$12.3k Vol|
time69 days 9 hrs

Bank of England decision in June?

Top Undervalued
+22.5¢
No change(No)
+16.5¢
25 bps decrease(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of the Yes prices across all options is currently at 148%, indicating a significant premium....
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Hedging
GBP/USD
FTSE 100
The Bank of England's rate decision directly impacts the valuation of the British Pound and liquidity expectations for UK equities. A surprise hike or cut will immediately trigger significant tradable movements in the GBP/USD exchange rate and the FTSE 100 index. Additionally, because the Pound is a key component of the US Dollar Index, DXY will also experience some spillover effects.
AI Analysis
What are the exact resolution rules for the BoE June decision? How will a 12.5 bps cut or hike be calculated?
Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30?
Culture|$192.8k Vol|
time81 days 9 hrs

Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30?

Top Undervalued
+1¢
(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
1¢
Arbitrage
4.7%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' at 98.95c. Plan Description: Forsen joining an LCK team is an extremely unlikely event in reality. Buying the 'No' option at arou...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
Forsen is a former professional esports player and a current popular entertainment streamer whose Le...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
This is a highly exotic market. Forsen is a Swedish variety streamer known for Hearthstone, and while he plays League recently, he is not at a professional level. The LCK is the premier Korean league, recruiting only top-tier domestic talent or elite imports. Linking an older Western streamer to the world's most competitive esports league is purely an internet meme or entertainment topic, defying conventional logic.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Shadowrocket
YesNo
73¢
27¢
85¢
15¢
+12¢
0¢
HotSchedules
YesNo
14.5¢
85.5¢
13¢
87¢
0¢
+1.5¢

Expand to view all 8 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
Predicting the #1 paid app on a specific random day is a very micro and niche topic. Unless a viral app is suddenly released, the general public rarely thinks about or tracks this daily fluctuating chart.
Movers
April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026: Shadowrocket's price surged from 41c to 91c, as it secured and maintained the #1 rank on the real-time charts. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026: HotSchedules's price plummeted from 50c to 7.5c due to losing its top position. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026: Prices for all other candidates like Procreate Pocket and SkyView crashed from the 40c-50c range to under 1c, as the chart competition became clear and their chances of taking the #1 spot vanished.

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