All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
130m+
YesNo
85-90m
YesNo
<85m
YesNo
90-95m
YesNo
95-100m
YesNo
105-110m
YesNo
125-130m
YesNo
110-115m
YesNo
115-120m
YesNo
100-105m
YesNo
120-125m
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 10:32 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Given the March 2026 context of a 'Six-year itch' midterm election, historical precedents (like 2018...
Sign up to view more information
Divergence
Significant divergence. The market pricing implies a ~37% probability of turnout falling below 90 million (sum of <85m and 85-90m). However, historical data shows no midterm turnout below 83M since 2014, with 2022 reaching 107M. Given population growth, a <90M outcome is considered virtually impossible (near 0% chance) by mainstream models. The market pricing is fundamentally disconnected from reality.
