Between April 21, 2026 and April 22, 2026, the price of the 16°C option surged from 9.5c to a peak of 23.25c, as short-term weather models slightly revised the expected high temperature downwards, increasing the likelihood of settling at 16°C. Between April 21, 2026 and April 22, 2026, the price of the 17°C option surged from 21c to 50.5c as weather forecasting models increasingly locked in the high temperature around 17°C closer to the date. Between April 21, 2026 and April 22, 2026, the price of the 18°C option fell from 43.5c to 25c, reflecting the market consensus shifting downwards in tandem with the forecast center. Between April 21, 2026 and April 22, 2026, the price of the 19°C option plummeted from 19.5c to 2.15c, as updated short-term weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of reaching 19°C.

April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026: The price of the 22°C option surged from 23.5c to 41.5c. This upward movement was driven by updated, near-term weather forecasts adjusting the expected high temperature upwards into the 22-23°C range. April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026: The price of the 20°C option plummeted from 17c to around 5c, and the 19°C option dropped from 7c to 0.5c. As the target date approaches, weather models offer higher certainty, effectively ruling out the likelihood of these cooler temperature scenarios.

Between April 21, 2026, and April 22, 2026, the Yes price for 27°C surged from 16c to 42.5c, while the Yes price for 29°C plummeted from 29c to 6c. The reason is that, as the resolution date approaches, the latest weather forecasts confirmed a slightly lower peak temperature than previously expected, causing a rapid shift of funds across adjacent temperature ranges.

The market title asks for the temperature in 'Seoul', but the resolution criteria explicitly specify the measurement from the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station' (RKSI). Incheon is a different city with a coastal climate, often resulting in temperature variations compared to central Seoul. Users relying on generic Seoul forecasts will fall into a significant trap.

Between Apr 22, 06:08 and Apr 22, 15:53, the price of the 10°C option surged from 14.5c to 37.5c before settling at 29.0c, driven by updated weather models and short-term forecast adjustments repositioning market expectations. Between Apr 22, 02:53 and Apr 22, 15:53, the 11°C option briefly spiked from 9.0c to 20.5c before retracing to 12.8c, reflecting temporary speculative bets on a slightly warmer overnight low. Between Apr 21, 07:18 and Apr 21, 10:33, the 7°C option plunged from 25.5c to 5.5c, as updated meteorological reports ruled out extreme cooling scenarios. Between Apr 21, 07:18 and Apr 21, 10:33, the 8°C option dropped heavily from 25.5c to 11.5c, similarly reflecting the warmer temperature revisions in the forecast data.

On April 22, 2026, the price of the 48-49°F option plummeted from 41.5c at 13:43 to 24c at 15:53, as midday weather model updates indicated cooler nighttime estimates. On April 22, 2026, the price of the 46-47°F option dropped from 42.5c at 07:13 to 29.5c at 15:53, driven by a dispersion of probabilities toward lower brackets (e.g., 44-45°F) in consensus models. There is no history of price movements exceeding 10c recently before these events.