Recent weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature in Atlanta on April 1, 2026, will lik...

On March 29, 2026, the price of the 82-83°F option plunged from 29.5c to 14c before rebounding to 28.5c, while the 84-85°F option dropped from 27.5c to 14.5c before recovering to 20.5c. This was caused by intraday updates to weather forecasting models prompting rapid revisions in temperature expectations by traders.

Mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., Wunderground) lean towards a high of 79-80°F in Atlanta for April 1, while the prediction market currently gives the highest price weight to 82-83°F. This divergence may occur because traders anticipate that the actual recorded temperature at the Hartsfield-Jackson Airport (often influenced by tarmac and urban heat island effects) will read hotter than surrounding areas.

Current meteorological models forecast temperatures fluctuating between 16°C and 20°C. With only 2 d...

From 19:30 to 21:40 on March 29, 2026, the price of '19°C' swung violently from 28c to 14c and back to 25c, due to meteorological models constantly adjusting peak temperature forecasts amid competing cold and warm advection. From 19:30 to 20:35 on March 29, 2026, the price of '12°C or below' plummeted from 25c to 8c as the possibility of an extreme cold front was largely ruled out by updated forecasts.

Based on the latest weather forecast data, the maximum temperature in London (specifically the City ...

March 29, 2026: The Yes price for 14°C rose from 26.5c to 38c, and for 15°C surged from 20c to 34.5c, as weather forecasting models stabilized the predicted high temperature in the 14°C to 15°C range for the upcoming date. March 29, 2026: The Yes price for 11°C or below plummeted from 25.5c to 4c, and for 20°C fell from 14.5c to 2.95c, because the possibility of extreme anomalous temperatures has been ruled out by short-term forecast data.

Latest weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature in Chengdu (Shuangliu International A...

Although weather forecasting is a relatively common niche in prediction markets, the general public does not usually bet on the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day, making it a somewhat novel and niche topic.

There is a slight divergence. Current mainstream 10-day meteorological forecasts strongly cluster around 21°C to 22°C. However, the prediction market assigns relatively high implied probabilities to 19°C (17.5%) and 23°C (15%). This suggests that market traders are either skeptical of the model accuracy or hedging against potential temperature volatility, leading to a pricing deviation from mainstream weather agency predictions.

Based on current prediction market prices, 36°C and 35°C are the most likely options. With less than...

While weather forecasting is a known derivatives domain, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city in India is quite niche and relatively unconventional for general prediction market participants.

From 21:40 to 23:50 on March 29, 2026, the prices of 38°C, 39°C, 40°C, 41°C, and 43°C or higher plummeted (e.g., 43°C or higher dropped from 22c to 0.6c, 41°C from 16c to 0.6c), while the yes prices of 35°C and 36°C steadily rose or remained high. The price of 37°C fluctuated but stayed above 20c. The reason is that as April 1 approaches, the certainty of short-term weather forecasts has significantly increased, essentially ruling out the possibility of extreme highs above 40 degrees, and sharply increasing the probability of the temperature falling within the 35-37 degree range.