Bitcoin above ___ on April 3?
Crypto|$13.2k Vol|
time6 days 11 hrs

Bitcoin above ___ on April 3? - AI Found +28.1¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+28.1¢
62,000(No)
+25.4¢
64,000(No)
+24.3¢
60,000(No)

Bitcoin above ___ on April 3? AI analysis: • +28.1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Elon Musk # tweets March 28 - March 30, 2026?
Culture|$140.4k Vol|
time2 days 11 hrs

Elon Musk # tweets March 28 - March 30, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+2¢
90-114(Yes)
+1.5¢
65-89(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Elon Musk's posting frequency on X, excluding pure replies, typically ranges from 30 to 60 posts per...
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Rule Risk
Moderate risk exists as resolution heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker rather than native X data. Distinguishing between standard replies (excluded) and 'main feed replies' (included) could cause confusion, and posts deleted under 5 minutes risk being uncounted if the tracker misses them.
Exotics
Betting on the exact frequency of a billionaire's social media posts over a specific 48-hour window is a highly niche and novelty proposition. Normal people do not track tweet volumes at this granular level.
Movers
March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026: Prices for high-frequency options such as 140-164, 165-189, and 190-214 plummeted from around 50c to below 5c, while the 115-139 option dropped from 28c to 11.5c. This was caused by an initial overestimation of Musk's posting volume or distorted pricing due to low liquidity. As the tracking window approached, traders aggressively corrected the prices downward to align with his actual recent posting frequency (around 40 qualifying posts per day).
AI Analysis
How exactly does the xtracker count Elon Musk's tweets, and what is the difference between a regular reply and a "reply on the main feed" that counts towards the total?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?
Weather|$218.8k Vol|
time7 hrs 49 mins

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?

Top Undervalued
+15.5¢
28°C(No)
+14.9¢
26°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts and market trends, the highest temperature at Shenzhen Bao'an ...
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Movers
Between March 26 and March 27, 2026, the price for 27°C surged from 38.5c to a peak of 50.5c before settling at 33c. This was due to updated weather forecasts confirming a high probability of 27°C in the short term. Between March 26 and March 27, 2026, the price for 28°C rose from 16c to 25.5c because some meteorological models adjusted their peak temperature expectations upward. Between March 24 and March 26, 2026, the price for 27°C surged from 17c to 34c, and the price for 26°C rose from 17.5c to between 26c and 30.5c. This occurred because weather forecasts became clearer as the date approached, leading market capital to concentrate on the most likely temperature ranges.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest Polymarket order book for the 'Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?' event, analyze the bid-ask spread and depth given the extremely low volume (~$160), and assess whether the currently highest-odds temperature range represents fair value based on real-time weather forecasts.
"They Will Kill You" Rotten Tomatoes score?
Culture|$11.7k Vol|
time1 days 19 hrs

"They Will Kill You" Rotten Tomatoes score?

Top Undervalued
+27.5¢
70+(Yes)
+9.1¢
75+(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the recent market trends, the Yes prices for 60+ and 65+ have surged, while 75+ has plummet...
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Movers
March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the Yes price for 60+ surged from 43c to 95c, and 65+ surged from 40.5c to 87c, while the Yes price for 75+ plummeted from 44.5c to 9c. The reason is that as more early reviews were published and aggregated on Rotten Tomatoes, the film's score gradually locked into the 65-74% range, eliminating the likelihood of extremely high or low scores.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book for the 'They Will Kill You' RT score market on Polymarket, and given the extremely low volume ($10), assess the current bid-ask spread and potential liquidity traps.
Highest Domestically Grossing February Film on March 31?
Culture|$64.2k Vol|
time2 days 19 hrs

Highest Domestically Grossing February Film on March 31?

Top Undervalued
+0.1¢
Wuthering Heights(No)
+0.1¢
Scream 7(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 4 days remaining until the settlement date (March 31, 2026), the domestic box office ...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Retrieve the latest cumulative gross data for 'Scream 7', 'Wuthering Heights', etc., from The Numbers, and combined with the low market volume ($26.67), assess if the current odds accurately reflect the remaining 30-day runway or if the market is suffering from liquidity failure.
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?
Finance|$17.2k Vol|
time3 days 16 hrs

Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?

Top Undervalued
+9.5¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the earnings release approaches, market confidence in Nike beating the conservative $0.29 estimat...
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Hedging
NKE
This event directly drives the stock price of Nike (NKE). Earnings days typically trigger significant intraday volatility for the specific stock (often around 5%, hence Score 3), making it a direct target for single-stock options or spot hedging. While Nike is a key consumer stock, the impact of a single earnings report on broad indices (like S&P 500) is diluted and negligible.
Movers
March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, Option_'Yes' price rebounded and surged from 76c to 86.5c. Reason: As earnings approach, market confidence in beating the heavily lowered $0.29 estimate resolidified, absorbing previous profit-taking pressure. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, Option_'Yes' price retraced from 83c to 76c, driven by profit-taking from early entrants (who bought at 50c-60c) as the earnings date approaches, causing a technical correction. March 19, 2026 - March 21, 2026, Option_'Yes' price surged from 50c to 80.5c, as the market recognized the $0.29 consensus bar was overly conservative, triggering a violent repricing of the previously undervalued probability of a beat.
AI Analysis
Mandatory Task: Visit the Polymarket page for this Nike (NKE) earnings prediction event to analyze the depth of the Order Book and core disagreements in user comments, then update your assessment of the fair value for the 'Yes' option based on the latest market consensus.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
62,000
YesNo
84¢
16¢
55.9¢
44.1¢
0¢
+28.1¢
64,000
YesNo
73¢
31¢
43.6¢
56.4¢
0¢
+25.4¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Negative Factor 1: Last Week Low Breakdown Status, 1.0000, Impact-Intense, Factor description Structural breakdown: whether the price falls below last week lowest price (0/1) Negative Factor 2: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0550, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 3: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0550, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Negative Factor 4: Weekly Price Change, -0.0210, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 5: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, -0.0550, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 6: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0330, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

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