Lady Gaga has consistently skipped the Met Gala since 2019, generally prioritizing her music tours o...

This is a typical pop culture/celebrity gossip market. While the Met Gala is a major fashion event, predicting the attendance of a specific celebrity (Lady Gaga) is a niche entertainment topic rather than a broad societal issue.

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, Option_'Yes' plummeted from 51.5c to 18c, as the market realized she is occupied with her 'Mayhem Ball' tour and hasn't attended the Gala since 2019, leading to a collapse in bullish confidence and heavy sell-offs due to the lack of official confirmation. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, Option_'Yes' plunged from 88.5c to 65.5c, as the market faced concentrated profit-taking after pushing prices significantly higher, lacking immediate catalysts to sustain the peak. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, Option_'Yes' tumbled from 83.5c to 53c, indicating extremely fragile confidence among holders in the absence of official confirmation, triggering panic selling. March 13, 2026 - March 14, 2026, Option_'Yes' price retraced from 64c to 58c, as speculative capital took profits after a brief rally that was not sustained by official confirmation. March 5, 2026 - March 8, 2026, Option_'Yes' price drifted down from 54c to 46.5c, driven by profit-taking after the previous rally and a drying up of buy-side volume due to a lack of new confirmation. March 1, 2026 - March 2, 2026, Option_'Yes' rebounded sharply from 42.5c to 55c, likely a technical correction to the previous day's drop or driven by thin market depth where small buy orders cause outsized moves. February 28, 2026 - March 1, 2026, price plunged from 55c to 42.5c, highlighting the fragility of holder confidence and the extreme volatility caused by illiquidity.

As the 2025-26 NHL regular season enters its final month, Matthew Schaefer's dominance remains uncha...

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes on $30M and No on $50M simultaneously Plan Description: Due to inclusive valuation logic, if FDV > $50M occurs, FDV > $30M must also occur (paying $1). If i...

The market continues to exhibit severe monotonicity violations (logical inversions). The Yes prices ...

The risk lies in the ambiguity of 'launch' and 'publicly tradable'. While the rules specify 'active, publicly transferable and tradable', disputes could arise if a liquidity pool is created on a DEX with negligible liquidity (fake tokens or high slippage). Additionally, calculating FDV relies on accurate Total Supply data, which is often opaque for early-stage projects.

This is a market about the future valuation of a specific, small-cap crypto project (Hurupay). Unless one is a crypto-native user focused on niche airdrops or stablecoin payment sectors, this is unknown to the general public. It is a highly segmented niche market.

With slightly over 2 days left until settlement, market expectations have further concentrated in th...

This is a typical niche data market. While not extremely bizarre (given the high profile of Trump's social media activity), it involves betting on granular personal behavioral data rather than traditional macro events or financial outcomes, warranting a medium novelty score.

March 29, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of '100-119' surged from 26c to 40c, because an acceleration in posting speed increased the likelihood of the final total landing in a higher bracket. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '80-99' surged from 37c to 52c before slightly adjusting to 47.5c-50.5c, as the latest posting frequency and tracker data as time progressed pushed up the probability valuation of this bracket, making it the most likely outcome. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '120-139' dropped from 16.5c to 4.05c, as the remaining time became insufficient to support such a high total, leading the market to heavily discount its probability. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '60-79' experienced violent fluctuations, plummeting from 16.6c to 4.4c before bouncing back to 14.2c, as the market rapidly adjusted its expectations for Trump's posting frequency across different brackets as time progressed. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, prices across all brackets experienced violent fluctuations, due to a market correction from an extremely irrational initial state where all options were priced above 40c, returning to a realistic probability distribution model.

As of April 1, 2026, the Colorado Avalanche (19.95c) securely hold the top spot as championship favo...