Based on the latest Wunderground forecasts, the high temperature for LGA on March 25 is expected to ...

March 24-25, 2026, the '48-49°F' option crashed from 18.5c down to 8.5c, as updated meteorological models consistently trended warmer (50-52°F), making the lower band highly unlikely. On March 23, 2026, the '50-51°F' option rose from ~20c to a high of 37.5c before settling at 30.5c; meanwhile, the '48-49°F' option saw volatility, spiking from 13c to 27c. This indicates that as the resolution date nears, market consensus is rapidly converging on the 48-51°F core range, with capital rotating out of extreme tail options into the central probability bands. March 22, 2026, 14:00 - 17:15, the '60°F or higher' option experienced extreme volatility, spiking from 4.5c to 26c before crashing back to 14c. The reason was likely a specific meteorological model run (e.g., GFS) showing an outlier warm spike, triggering speculative buying that was quickly corrected. March 22, 2026, 04:15 - 07:30, the '56-57°F' option surged from 6.5c to 26.5c, similarly reflecting short-lived panic regarding warming trends.

The market currently prices the '50-51°F' option as the favorite (37.5%), whereas the resolution source (Wunderground) explicitly forecasts a high of 52°F. This suggests the market is undervaluing the '52-53°F' bin (28.5%) and lagging behind the most up-to-date meteorological guidance.

With only ~15 hours until resolution, mainstream meteorological models are highly aligned and certai...

From March 21 to March 22, 2026, the price of '15°C or higher' surged from 26c to 95c, while '12°C', '13°C', and '14°C' options crashed. This was driven by major meteorological models (GFS/ECMWF) and forecast sources (Google/AccuWeather) significantly upgrading the temperature outlook for March 25 to 16-18°C, confirming a strong warming trend and eliminating previous cold-weather uncertainty.

According to the latest daily forecasts from AccuWeather and Weather.com (The Weather Channel) speci...

March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of '72-73°F' surged from 17c to 32c, while extreme heat options of '84°F' and above collapsed to single digits. The reason is that as the forecast date approached, high-resolution models (like HRRR) confirmed that the sea breeze would kick in earlier due to strengthening onshore flow, preventing LAX from reaching the extreme inland highs, causing market pricing to rapidly converge on the 70-75°F range. Evening of March 23, 2026, the price of '80-81°F' perplexingly rebounded from 10c to 20c. This contradicts the cooling trend and may be traders betting on tail risks of a 'weak offshore wind' (Santa Ana) or pricing distortions due to low liquidity.

Although the NWS discussion on March 23 mentions a 'mid-summer pattern' implying potential heat, mai...

March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of the 70-71°F option spiked from ~8.5c to 26c before settling back to 16c, driven by updated weather models showing a stronger warm sector over Chicago and NWS using 'mid-summer' to describe Thursday's pattern, triggering panic buying for heat. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the prices for 62-63°F and '59°F or below' crashed from ~30c and ~25c respectively to single digits, as forecasts confirmed strong Warm Air Advection (WAA) ahead of the cold front, diminishing the probability of the originally expected cooler temperatures (50s-low 60s).

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market is heavily betting on the 68°F-73°F range (combined probability ~45%), likely influenced by qualitative descriptions of 'warm sector' and 'mid-summer patterns' in meteorological discussions. However, quantitative forecasts from mainstream media (ABC7, Fox32, AccuWeather) are consistently lower, clustering between 56°F and 65°F. The market is pricing the event ~5-8 degrees hotter than the media consensus, suggesting participants are speculating on raw model output (like GFS) rather than curated commercial forecasts.

The official NWS forecast explicitly predicts a high near 78°F for KLAX on Thursday, making '78-79°F...

March 22-23, 2026, '86°F or higher' crashed from 56c to 3c, while '74-75°F' surged from 9c to 26c. Reason: Weather models confirmed the heatwave would end before March 26, causing the market to rapidly shift from betting on extreme heat to typical mild spring weather. Previously (last analysis), no significant volatility was detected due to insufficient data.

Significant divergence. The latest official NWS forecast predicts a high of 78°F for KLAX on Thursday, while the prediction market is heavily betting on the 72-75°F range. The market prices imply a very low probability (<15%) for temps above 78°F, sharply contrasting with the Weather Service forecast.