Bitcoin above ___ on May 1? - AI Found +16.4¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$10.7k Vol|

6 days 0 hrs

Bitcoin above ___ on May 1? - AI Found +16.4¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+16.4¢

80,000(Yes)

+16.2¢

78,000(Yes)

+13.4¢

82,000(Yes)

Bitcoin above ___ on May 1? AI analysis: • +16.4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Sports|$1.8m Vol|

EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current market prices clearly reflect the relegation picture. The final relegation spot is a tight f...

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Relegation from the EPL has massive financial implications (loss of broadcast revenue and brand value) for listed clubs like Manchester United (MANU). While relegation is highly unlikely for a giant like Man Utd, if it were to happen, the stock impact would be catastrophic (Score 5). For other non-listed clubs, there are no direct tickers. Overall, this acts as a specific equity risk event.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest EPL standings or Championship promotion trends (to verify the status of listed teams like Sunderland/Leeds), analyze the order book depth for relegation favorites on Polymarket, and assess fair value considering potential PSR (Profit and Sustainability Rules) points deductions.

Politics|$2.1m Vol|

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market price for 'Yes' remains stable at 15.5c, highly consistent with previous fair value estim...

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Zelenskyy's departure could signal a major turning point in the Ukraine war (e.g., ceasefire negotiations or chaos from regime change). This directly impacts global energy supply expectations (Crude Oil) and risk sentiment (Gold). If his exit is seen as a de-escalation signal, oil prices might drop; if due to a coup or deterioration, safe-haven assets might rise. Thus, it is a geopolitical event with medium hedging value.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions. Update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks based on the current Russia-Ukraine war situation and Ukrainian domestic politics as of March 2026.

Geopolitics|$702.3k Vol|

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

Top Undervalued

March 31, 2027(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest data and current situation (April 2026), the focus of the Russian offensive in U...

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There is a critical conflict between the rule text and the market metadata. The option label and resolution date are listed as March 31, 2027, but the rule description explicitly states the deadline is 'September 30, 2025'. Given that the current date (Feb 2026) is already past the text-based deadline, this creates immense ambiguity. If interpreted literally by the text, the window has closed; if interpreted by the metadata, it is still open. This discrepancy poses an extreme resolution risk.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest combat reports regarding the Sumy direction, visit the Polymarket page to analyze order book depth and user discussions, and update the fair value and risk assessment for Russian forces capturing the Sumy train station by September 2025.

Sports|$16.2m Vol|

French Ligue 1 Winner

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With about 5 weeks remaining in the Ligue 1 season, Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) has further solidified...

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[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Schedule & European Competition Impact: Analyze the key fixtures scheduled for March and April 2026, specifically direct clashes between the top 4 teams ('six-pointers') and the potential drain of Champions League knockout stages on the league leader's squad rotation. Predict if there are imminent risk events—such as injuries to key players or dropped points due to European distractions—that could trigger significant price volatility in the prediction market within the next 48 hours to one week.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Ligue 1 standings as of March 2026 to calculate the actual points gap between the league leader (e.g., PSG) and challengers like Monaco or Marseille. Combine this with the current bid/ask depth on Polymarket to analyze whether the market odds accurately reflect the probability of winning the title given the remaining schedule, or if there is a pricing bias due to overreaction to recent match results.

[Mainstream Divergence] Traditional Sportsbook Odds Comparison: Search for the latest real-time odds for the '2025-26 Ligue 1 Winner' on mainstream sportsbooks like Bet365 or William Hill. Convert these odds into implied probabilities and compare them with the current prices on Polymarket (especially for the second-tier teams excluding PSG) to identify any arbitrage opportunities or 'value bets' caused by liquidity differences or information lag.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Schedule & European Competition Impact: Analyze the key fixtures scheduled for March and April 2026, specifically direct clashes between the top 4 teams ('six-pointers') and the potential drain of Champions League knockout stages on the league leader's squad rotation. Predict if there are imminent risk events—such as injuries to key players or dropped points due to European distractions—that could trigger significant price volatility in the prediction market within the next 48 hours to one week.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Ligue 1 standings as of March 2026 to calculate the actual points gap between the league leader (e.g., PSG) and challengers like Monaco or Marseille. Combine this with the current bid/ask depth on Polymarket to analyze whether the market odds accurately reflect the probability of winning the title given the remaining schedule, or if there is a pricing bias due to overreaction to recent match results.

Politics|$664.5k Vol|

How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy NO on all options Plan Description: The sum of the NO prices for all options is 5.9595 (595.95 cents). Since these options are mutually ...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

Market expectations remain highly concentrated in the '22-23' and '24-25' seat ranges, indicating a ...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?', analyze the depth and spread of top options (e.g., 26-27 vs. 28-29 seats), and combine this with the current count of GOP incumbents and the latest 'Cook Political Report' ratings for 2026 toss-up states to assess if the odds misprice incumbent advantage.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?', analyze the depth and spread of top options (e.g., 26-27 vs. 28-29 seats), and combine this with the current count of GOP incumbents and the latest 'Cook Political Report' ratings for 2026 toss-up states to assess if the odds misprice incumbent advantage.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

80,000

YesNo

26¢

78¢

42.4¢

57.6¢

+16.4¢

0¢

78,000

YesNo

46¢

59¢

62.2¢

37.8¢

+16.2¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Positive Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0930, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0400, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, 0.0490, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0400, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 1: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases Negative Factor 2: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0010, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Sports|$1.8m Vol|

EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current market prices clearly reflect the relegation picture. The final relegation spot is a tight f...

🔓 Log in to see more

Relegation from the EPL has massive financial implications (loss of broadcast revenue and brand value) for listed clubs like Manchester United (MANU). While relegation is highly unlikely for a giant like Man Utd, if it were to happen, the stock impact would be catastrophic (Score 5). For other non-listed clubs, there are no direct tickers. Overall, this acts as a specific equity risk event.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest EPL standings or Championship promotion trends (to verify the status of listed teams like Sunderland/Leeds), analyze the order book depth for relegation favorites on Polymarket, and assess fair value considering potential PSR (Profit and Sustainability Rules) points deductions.

Politics|$2.1m Vol|

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market price for 'Yes' remains stable at 15.5c, highly consistent with previous fair value estim...

🔓 Log in to see more

Zelenskyy's departure could signal a major turning point in the Ukraine war (e.g., ceasefire negotiations or chaos from regime change). This directly impacts global energy supply expectations (Crude Oil) and risk sentiment (Gold). If his exit is seen as a de-escalation signal, oil prices might drop; if due to a coup or deterioration, safe-haven assets might rise. Thus, it is a geopolitical event with medium hedging value.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions. Update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks based on the current Russia-Ukraine war situation and Ukrainian domestic politics as of March 2026.

Geopolitics|$702.3k Vol|

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

Top Undervalued

March 31, 2027(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest data and current situation (April 2026), the focus of the Russian offensive in U...

🔓 Log in to see more

There is a critical conflict between the rule text and the market metadata. The option label and resolution date are listed as March 31, 2027, but the rule description explicitly states the deadline is 'September 30, 2025'. Given that the current date (Feb 2026) is already past the text-based deadline, this creates immense ambiguity. If interpreted literally by the text, the window has closed; if interpreted by the metadata, it is still open. This discrepancy poses an extreme resolution risk.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest combat reports regarding the Sumy direction, visit the Polymarket page to analyze order book depth and user discussions, and update the fair value and risk assessment for Russian forces capturing the Sumy train station by September 2025.

Sports|$16.2m Vol|

French Ligue 1 Winner

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With about 5 weeks remaining in the Ligue 1 season, Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) has further solidified...

🔓 Log in to see more

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Schedule & European Competition Impact: Analyze the key fixtures scheduled for March and April 2026, specifically direct clashes between the top 4 teams ('six-pointers') and the potential drain of Champions League knockout stages on the league leader's squad rotation. Predict if there are imminent risk events—such as injuries to key players or dropped points due to European distractions—that could trigger significant price volatility in the prediction market within the next 48 hours to one week.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Ligue 1 standings as of March 2026 to calculate the actual points gap between the league leader (e.g., PSG) and challengers like Monaco or Marseille. Combine this with the current bid/ask depth on Polymarket to analyze whether the market odds accurately reflect the probability of winning the title given the remaining schedule, or if there is a pricing bias due to overreaction to recent match results.

[Mainstream Divergence] Traditional Sportsbook Odds Comparison: Search for the latest real-time odds for the '2025-26 Ligue 1 Winner' on mainstream sportsbooks like Bet365 or William Hill. Convert these odds into implied probabilities and compare them with the current prices on Polymarket (especially for the second-tier teams excluding PSG) to identify any arbitrage opportunities or 'value bets' caused by liquidity differences or information lag.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Schedule & European Competition Impact: Analyze the key fixtures scheduled for March and April 2026, specifically direct clashes between the top 4 teams ('six-pointers') and the potential drain of Champions League knockout stages on the league leader's squad rotation. Predict if there are imminent risk events—such as injuries to key players or dropped points due to European distractions—that could trigger significant price volatility in the prediction market within the next 48 hours to one week.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Ligue 1 standings as of March 2026 to calculate the actual points gap between the league leader (e.g., PSG) and challengers like Monaco or Marseille. Combine this with the current bid/ask depth on Polymarket to analyze whether the market odds accurately reflect the probability of winning the title given the remaining schedule, or if there is a pricing bias due to overreaction to recent match results.

Politics|$664.5k Vol|

How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy NO on all options Plan Description: The sum of the NO prices for all options is 5.9595 (595.95 cents). Since these options are mutually ...

🔓 Log in to see more

Undervalued Options Insights:

Market expectations remain highly concentrated in the '22-23' and '24-25' seat ranges, indicating a ...

🔓 Log in to see more

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?', analyze the depth and spread of top options (e.g., 26-27 vs. 28-29 seats), and combine this with the current count of GOP incumbents and the latest 'Cook Political Report' ratings for 2026 toss-up states to assess if the odds misprice incumbent advantage.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?', analyze the depth and spread of top options (e.g., 26-27 vs. 28-29 seats), and combine this with the current count of GOP incumbents and the latest 'Cook Political Report' ratings for 2026 toss-up states to assess if the odds misprice incumbent advantage.

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Bitcoin above ___ on May 1? - AI Found +16.4¢ Mispricing