Bitcoin price on April 1?
Crypto|$11.8k Vol|
time3 days 3 hrs

Bitcoin price on April 1? - AI Found +25.3¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+25.3¢
<62,000(Yes)
+11.2¢
66,000-68,000(No)
+10¢
68,000-70,000(No)

Bitcoin price on April 1? AI analysis: • +25.3¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
Geopolitics|$11.6k Vol|
time1 days 11 hrs

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?

Top Undervalued
+18¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market price of 38 cents reflects a moderate-to-low probability of a drone or missile st...
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Rule Risk
The rules state that intercepted attacks count if there is 'clear evidence' they were directed at the Kyiv municipality. In practice, proving the exact intended target of a destroyed weapon (i.e., the municipality vs. just flying over or targeting the broader oblast) could lead to significant resolution disputes.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for this Kyiv attack market using the simplest language, specifically clarifying whether intercepted Russian drones or missiles still qualify for a 'Yes' win.
"Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office
Culture|$115.6k Vol|
time23 hrs 37 mins

"Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Top Undervalued
+30.2¢
>54m(No)
+28¢
50-54m(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest trading data, the release of early weekend box office estimates (Friday and Satu...
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Movers
2026-03-27 to 2026-03-29, the market experienced a massive paradigm shift. The price of '46-50m' crashed from 54.5c to 2.15c, while '50-54m' temporarily surged to 81.5c (before retreating to 46c), and '>54m' skyrocketed from under 5c to a peak of 61.4c (currently stabilizing around 48c). This was driven by Friday and Saturday actual estimates coming in much hotter than anticipated, forcing the market to drastically revise the weekend projection upwards to the 50m+ and potentially 54m+ range. 2026-03-24 to 2026-03-27, prices across all brackets exhibited extreme volatility (>20c swings). For instance, '>54m' plummeted from 48.5c to 9c before recovering to 23c; '50-54m' dropped from 43c to 10.5c then climbed back to 31c. Similar dramatic roller-coaster movements were seen in the '42-46m' and '46-50m' brackets. This is likely driven by the release of mid-week daily estimates, causing the market to aggressively re-evaluate the weekend drop between 'exceptional word-of-mouth holds' and 'standard blockbuster drops'.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest Order Book data (noting the low $34.1 volume) and visit Box Office Mojo to confirm the finalized 'Opening Weekend' gross for 'Project Hail Mary'. Based on the opening number, calculate what percentage 'drop' is required for the box office to hit the >$54m or 50-54m brackets to assess if the current odds are realistic.
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?
World|$126.8k Vol|
time1 days 11 hrs

Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 2 days remaining until the March 31 deadline, and considering the weekend, the likeli...
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Exotics
For those following South Korean politics, this is standard; however, for a general global audience, specific leadership changes within a Korean political party (PPP) represent a niche political market. It is not a globally ubiquitous topic like the US Presidential Election.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest South Korean political news regarding Jang Dong-hyeok and Polymarket order book data as of March 1, 2026. Analyze if there are recent breaking news stories regarding 'internal feuds' or 'nomination right disputes' within the PPP, and combining this with the current bid-ask spread, assess if the market odds are mispricing the risk of a sudden resignation with only 30 days left.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Politics|$65.2k Vol|
time92 days 11 hrs

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+13.5¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market price (13.5c) only reflects short-term diplomatic setbacks (Russia's absence from...
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Hedging
Crude Oil
LMT
RHM.DE
Gold
S&P 500
A peace deal signed by June 30 would be a massive geopolitical shock (Score 4-5 level). It would significantly remove the geopolitical risk premium, likely causing a sharp drop in Crude Oil and Gold prices. Global equities (e.g., S&P 500) would likely rally on reduced uncertainty and reconstruction prospects. Conversely, defense stocks (like Lockheed Martin or Rheinmetall) could face sell-off pressure due to anticipated reductions in urgency for military aid and defense spending.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. **Mainstream media** (e.g., France 24, The Guardian) report that the US (Trump administration) has formally issued a 'June deadline' ultimatum to both Ukraine and Russia, with diplomatic pressure at peak levels. However, **prediction market prices** (13.5c) imply an extremely low probability of a deal, effectively pricing in 'total failure.' This divergence stems from the market focusing on the current tactical stalemate (Russia skipping Miami) while ignoring the strategic will of the US to force a 'formalized agreement' before the deadline.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for the "Ukraine Peace Deal" event. Analyze whether the current ~$46k volume presents liquidity traps. Combine this with recent diplomatic updates (e.g., breaking news on third-party mediation) to assess if the current odds accurately price in the risks of negotiation breakdowns or sudden breakthroughs.
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Politics|$14.5k Vol|
time92 days 11 hrs

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market price for 'Yes' has stabilized around 13.5c, lower than previous fair value assessments. ...
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Rule Risk
The rules are reasonably clear but carry definitional risk regarding what constitutes a 'public agreement' or 'pledge.' Ambiguity may arise if Ukraine offers vague concessions to start negotiations (e.g., 'deferring application' vs. 'agreeing not to join'). The provision that allows for an agreement serving as a 'precondition'—even if not finalized—adds subjective interpretation risk regarding whether a qualifying statement has truly occurred.
Hedging
RHM.DE
Gold
S&P 500
Crude Oil
LMT
Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO would likely signal a major de-escalation or breakthrough in ceasefire talks. This would significantly reduce the geopolitical risk premium. Crude Oil and Gold, as safe-haven and war-sensitive assets, would likely see price declines due to peace expectations. Major indices (S&P 500) might rally on the removal of uncertainty. Conversely, defense stocks (e.g., Rheinmetall RHM.DE, Lockheed Martin LMT) could face sell-offs due to anticipated reductions in military aid or conflict intensity. This is a macro event with high hedging value.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the current bid/ask depth and spread. Combine this with the latest diplomatic developments in the Ukraine war to update your assessment of the fair value regarding the likelihood of Ukraine renouncing NATO membership.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
<62,000
YesNo
9¢
94.3¢
34.3¢
65.7¢
+25.3¢
0¢
66,000-68,000
YesNo
30¢
75¢
13.8¢
86.2¢
0¢
+11.2¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Negative Factor 1: Last Week Low Breakdown Status, 1.0000, Impact-Intense, Factor description Structural breakdown: whether the price falls below last week lowest price (0/1) Negative Factor 2: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0500, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 3: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0530, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Negative Factor 4: Weekly Price Change, -0.0210, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 5: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, -0.0530, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 6: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0210, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

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Bitcoin price on April 1? - AI Found +25.3¢ Mispricing