Bitcoin price on May 13? - AI Found +12.2¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$13.2k Vol|

2 days 11 hrs

Bitcoin price on May 13? - AI Found +12.2¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+12.2¢

78,000-80,000(No)

+10.9¢

84,000-86,000(Yes)

+10.7¢

82,000-84,000(Yes)

Bitcoin price on May 13? AI analysis: • +12.2¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Sports|$2.6m Vol|

English Premier League – 2nd Place

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes for Man City (73.5c) and Yes for Arsenal (26c) simultaneously Plan Description: The combined Yes prices for Man City (73.5c) and Arsenal (26c) sum up to 99.5c, which is strictly le...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest market price trends (as of May 10, 2026), Arsenal's probability of finishing as ...

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[Category 3: Decision & Action] [Mainstream Divergence] Mean Reversion Potential Return: Search for the latest odds from mainstream sportsbooks (e.g., Bet365, SkyBet) for 'Premier League Runner-up' or 'Top 2 Finish'. Calculate the potential ROI if Polymarket prices revert to the average implied probability of these bookmakers, and verify if there is a Positive Expected Value (+EV) to justify an entry.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'English Premier League – 2nd Place 2025–26' and analyze the order book depth given the high volume ($850k). Combine the current EPL table (as of March 2026) with the pricing of top contenders (e.g., Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool) to assess if the current odds accurately reflect their points advantage and strength of remaining schedule, identifying any mispricing due to liquidity dynamics.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] [Sports] Key Variables Confirmation: Search and verify the real-time 2025-26 Premier League table, focusing on the points gap, goal difference, and 'games in hand' for teams fighting for 2nd place. Also, confirm the injury status of key players (e.g., top scorers) to determine if these fundamental variables support their probability of finishing as runners-up.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] [Mainstream Divergence] Mean Reversion Potential Return: Search for the latest odds from mainstream sportsbooks (e.g., Bet365, SkyBet) for 'Premier League Runner-up' or 'Top 2 Finish'. Calculate the potential ROI if Polymarket prices revert to the average implied probability of these bookmakers, and verify if there is a Positive Expected Value (+EV) to justify an entry.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'English Premier League – 2nd Place 2025–26' and analyze the order book depth given the high volume ($850k). Combine the current EPL table (as of March 2026) with the pricing of top contenders (e.g., Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool) to assess if the current odds accurately reflect their points advantage and strength of remaining schedule, identifying any mispricing due to liquidity dynamics.

Culture|$6.7m Vol|

Eurovision 2026: Televote Winner

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As the Grand Final approaches, market pricing remains stable. Israel continues to lead the Televote ...

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Retrieve the latest information and visit the Polymarket page for the "Eurovision 2026: Televote Winner" event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks based on the confirmed lineup of songs as of March 20.

Culture|$681.2k Vol|

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

Top Undervalued

San Marino(Yes)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy one 'Yes' share of all 15 countries. Plan Description: Since the competition rules guarantee exactly 10 countries will advance, buying one 'Yes' share for ...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the Eurovision First Semi-Final rules, exactly 10 countries will advance to the final. ...

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[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Key Timeline & Staging Effects: Based on Eurovision traditions, analyze potential catalysts within the next 48 hours to one month (e.g., the official 'Running Order' announcement or April Pre-party live sets). For entries like Finland or Croatia that typically rely on staging, could the reveal of rehearsal footage serve as a primary driver for imminent price volatility?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final' to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for popular options like Israel/Sweden versus underdogs like San Marino. Combining this with 'To Qualify' odds on Eurovision World, assess if current prices are fair or if arbitrage opportunities exist against mainstream bookmakers.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Key Timeline & Staging Effects: Based on Eurovision traditions, analyze potential catalysts within the next 48 hours to one month (e.g., the official 'Running Order' announcement or April Pre-party live sets). For entries like Finland or Croatia that typically rely on staging, could the reveal of rehearsal footage serve as a primary driver for imminent price volatility?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final' to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for popular options like Israel/Sweden versus underdogs like San Marino. Combining this with 'To Qualify' odds on Eurovision World, assess if current prices are fair or if arbitrage opportunities exist against mainstream bookmakers.

Politics|$4.1m Vol|

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Jerome Powell's statutory term as Fed Chair expires on May 15, 2026. There is a strong consensus tha...

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Powell's unexpected departure (whether resignation or removal) would be a massive 'Black Swan' event, triggering extreme panic regarding monetary policy continuity. US Treasury yields would experience violent volatility (direction depending on successor expectations), equities could crash due to uncertainty, and Gold would spike as a safe haven. The impact is sufficient to alter medium-term macro trends.

[Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.

[Category 1: Rule Pitfall] Key Timeline Check: Search official Federal Reserve documents or the U.S. Code to verify the exact legal expiration date of Powell's current term (commonly cited as May 2026). Specifically confirm: If he serves until the very last day of his statutory term (e.g., May 15), will the 'Out by May 14' option resolve to 'No'? Is there a risk of misjudgment based on a one-day difference?

[Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.

Tech|$12.1k Vol|

Fervo Energy IPO Closing Market Cap

Top Undervalued

$7.0B–$8.5B(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest SEC filings in May 2026, Fervo Energy is targeting an IPO valuation of $6.5 ...

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Mainstream consensus and SEC filings explicitly state a $6.5 billion target valuation for Fervo Energy, which should make the $5.5B–$7.0B bracket a heavy favorite. Instead, the prediction market prices all six options nearly identically at around 40c each. This completely ignores the actual IPO valuation guidance and fails to reflect the mutually exclusive nature of the brackets, severely diverging from reality.

Search for the latest news on Fervo Energy's IPO roadshow and institutional demand to see what's driving the current market cap expectations.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

78,000-80,000

YesNo

25¢

76¢

11.8¢

88.2¢

0¢

+12.2¢

84,000-86,000

YesNo

7¢

94¢

17.9¢

82.1¢

+10.9¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Positive Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.1140, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0400, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 3: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0400, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 4: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0130, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Weekly Price Change, -0.0010, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 2: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Sports|$2.6m Vol|

English Premier League – 2nd Place

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes for Man City (73.5c) and Yes for Arsenal (26c) simultaneously Plan Description: The combined Yes prices for Man City (73.5c) and Arsenal (26c) sum up to 99.5c, which is strictly le...

🔓 Log in to see more

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest market price trends (as of May 10, 2026), Arsenal's probability of finishing as ...

🔓 Log in to see more

[Category 3: Decision & Action] [Mainstream Divergence] Mean Reversion Potential Return: Search for the latest odds from mainstream sportsbooks (e.g., Bet365, SkyBet) for 'Premier League Runner-up' or 'Top 2 Finish'. Calculate the potential ROI if Polymarket prices revert to the average implied probability of these bookmakers, and verify if there is a Positive Expected Value (+EV) to justify an entry.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'English Premier League – 2nd Place 2025–26' and analyze the order book depth given the high volume ($850k). Combine the current EPL table (as of March 2026) with the pricing of top contenders (e.g., Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool) to assess if the current odds accurately reflect their points advantage and strength of remaining schedule, identifying any mispricing due to liquidity dynamics.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] [Sports] Key Variables Confirmation: Search and verify the real-time 2025-26 Premier League table, focusing on the points gap, goal difference, and 'games in hand' for teams fighting for 2nd place. Also, confirm the injury status of key players (e.g., top scorers) to determine if these fundamental variables support their probability of finishing as runners-up.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] [Mainstream Divergence] Mean Reversion Potential Return: Search for the latest odds from mainstream sportsbooks (e.g., Bet365, SkyBet) for 'Premier League Runner-up' or 'Top 2 Finish'. Calculate the potential ROI if Polymarket prices revert to the average implied probability of these bookmakers, and verify if there is a Positive Expected Value (+EV) to justify an entry.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'English Premier League – 2nd Place 2025–26' and analyze the order book depth given the high volume ($850k). Combine the current EPL table (as of March 2026) with the pricing of top contenders (e.g., Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool) to assess if the current odds accurately reflect their points advantage and strength of remaining schedule, identifying any mispricing due to liquidity dynamics.

Culture|$6.7m Vol|

Eurovision 2026: Televote Winner

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As the Grand Final approaches, market pricing remains stable. Israel continues to lead the Televote ...

🔓 Log in to see more

Retrieve the latest information and visit the Polymarket page for the "Eurovision 2026: Televote Winner" event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks based on the confirmed lineup of songs as of March 20.

Culture|$681.2k Vol|

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

Top Undervalued

San Marino(Yes)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy one 'Yes' share of all 15 countries. Plan Description: Since the competition rules guarantee exactly 10 countries will advance, buying one 'Yes' share for ...

🔓 Log in to see more

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the Eurovision First Semi-Final rules, exactly 10 countries will advance to the final. ...

🔓 Log in to see more

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Key Timeline & Staging Effects: Based on Eurovision traditions, analyze potential catalysts within the next 48 hours to one month (e.g., the official 'Running Order' announcement or April Pre-party live sets). For entries like Finland or Croatia that typically rely on staging, could the reveal of rehearsal footage serve as a primary driver for imminent price volatility?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final' to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for popular options like Israel/Sweden versus underdogs like San Marino. Combining this with 'To Qualify' odds on Eurovision World, assess if current prices are fair or if arbitrage opportunities exist against mainstream bookmakers.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Key Timeline & Staging Effects: Based on Eurovision traditions, analyze potential catalysts within the next 48 hours to one month (e.g., the official 'Running Order' announcement or April Pre-party live sets). For entries like Finland or Croatia that typically rely on staging, could the reveal of rehearsal footage serve as a primary driver for imminent price volatility?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final' to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for popular options like Israel/Sweden versus underdogs like San Marino. Combining this with 'To Qualify' odds on Eurovision World, assess if current prices are fair or if arbitrage opportunities exist against mainstream bookmakers.

Politics|$4.1m Vol|

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Jerome Powell's statutory term as Fed Chair expires on May 15, 2026. There is a strong consensus tha...

🔓 Log in to see more

Powell's unexpected departure (whether resignation or removal) would be a massive 'Black Swan' event, triggering extreme panic regarding monetary policy continuity. US Treasury yields would experience violent volatility (direction depending on successor expectations), equities could crash due to uncertainty, and Gold would spike as a safe haven. The impact is sufficient to alter medium-term macro trends.

[Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.

[Category 1: Rule Pitfall] Key Timeline Check: Search official Federal Reserve documents or the U.S. Code to verify the exact legal expiration date of Powell's current term (commonly cited as May 2026). Specifically confirm: If he serves until the very last day of his statutory term (e.g., May 15), will the 'Out by May 14' option resolve to 'No'? Is there a risk of misjudgment based on a one-day difference?

[Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.

Tech|$12.1k Vol|

Fervo Energy IPO Closing Market Cap

Top Undervalued

$7.0B–$8.5B(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest SEC filings in May 2026, Fervo Energy is targeting an IPO valuation of $6.5 ...

🔓 Log in to see more

Mainstream consensus and SEC filings explicitly state a $6.5 billion target valuation for Fervo Energy, which should make the $5.5B–$7.0B bracket a heavy favorite. Instead, the prediction market prices all six options nearly identically at around 40c each. This completely ignores the actual IPO valuation guidance and fails to reflect the mutually exclusive nature of the brackets, severely diverging from reality.

Search for the latest news on Fervo Energy's IPO roadshow and institutional demand to see what's driving the current market cap expectations.

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