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Republican Party
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Democratic Party
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AI Insights:
03.07 06:27 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Despite incumbent GOP Rep. Darrell Issa's name recognition and fundraising, the post-'Prop 50' redistricting shift to D+4, combined with the midterm environment under a Republican President, structurally favors the Democrats (due to the 'Midterm Curse'). The market is currently severely mispriced, with the sum of 'Yes' prices at only 87.5c, far below the axiomatic 100c. The recent drop in the Democratic price from 76c to 65c appears to be a liquidity crunch or panic selling rather than a fundamental reversal. Based on structural advantages, the fair win probability for Democrats should remain around 70%.
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Movers
March 5, 2026 - March 7, 2026, the price of the Democratic Party dropped from 76.5c to 65c, a decline of over 11c. This sharp volatility occurred without significant election news, and the Republican price did not rise correspondingly (in fact, it also dipped slightly). This suggests a severe liquidity gap or erroneous panic selling in the market, causing the total implied probability to collapse well below 100%.
February 4, 2026 - February 10, 2026, the Democratic Party price remained stable at a high level of ~76c, reflecting the market's previous conviction in the Democratic advantage following the confirmation of the new district maps.
