2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
Science|$13.9k Vol|
time31 days 21 hrs

2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? - AI Found +72¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.24 23:53
Top Undervalued
+72¢
4th or lower(Yes)
+32.5¢
3rd hottest(No)
+26¢
2nd hottest(No)

2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? AI analysis: • +72¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
As of March 2026, global temperatures are influenced by the tail end of La Niña, with Jan/Feb rankin...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
World|$1.9m Vol|
time266 days 21 hrs

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

Top Undervalued
+6¢
No meeting before 2027(Yes)
+1.2¢
US(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 9 months left until the end of 2026, the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains deadlocked w...
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Exotics
While a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin is a topic of global interest, the probability of a direct meeting is currently viewed as low due to the intense ongoing war ('exotic' due to low probability), making this prediction highly speculative.
Hedging
Gold
Crude Oil
S&P 500
If a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy is confirmed, it would be seen as a major signal that the Russia-Ukraine conflict might be heading towards a ceasefire or negotiations, significantly reducing the geopolitical risk premium. Crude Oil prices would likely plunge due to eased supply fears, Gold as a safe haven would drop, and equities (like the S&P 500) would likely rise on improved risk sentiment.
AI Analysis
Elon Musk # tweets April 6 - April 8, 2026?
Culture|$851.3k Vol|
time13 hrs 31 mins

Elon Musk # tweets April 6 - April 8, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+9¢
40-64(No)
+4.5¢
65-89(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With only about 13.5 hours remaining until expiration, the market is highly concentrated in the 65-8...
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Rule Risk
The market relies heavily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) for resolution. The nuanced rules regarding edge cases—such as deleted posts requiring ~5 minutes of uptime to be counted, main feed replies, and community reposts—introduce moderate risk of settlement disputes if the tracker fails or misclassifies data.
Exotics
Betting on the exact number of posts a public figure makes within a random 48-hour window in the future is highly arbitrary and niche. It is a novelty market created purely for engagement and gambling, not for forecasting real-world significant events.
Movers
From 07:45 to 22:55 on April 7, 2026, the price of the 65-89 bracket surged from 34.5c to 69c, while the 90-114 bracket plummeted from 39.5c to 20.5c. This occurred because, with less than 17 hours remaining in the window, Musk's posting rate slowed down significantly, giving the market high confidence that the final count will fall within the 65-89 range and drastically reducing expectations of breaking 90. Between April 6 and April 7, 2026, the prices of the 90-114 and 115-139 brackets surged significantly, rising from 15c to 40.5c and 1.7c to 17.45c, respectively. Concurrently, the 40-64 bracket plummeted from 37.5c to 2.4c. This was caused by Musk's posting frequency far exceeding normal expectations after the tracking window opened, leading the market to heavily revise upward the expected total.
AI Analysis
NBA Three Pointers Made Per Game Leader
Sports|$745.8k Vol|
time4 days 5 hrs

NBA Three Pointers Made Per Game Leader

Top Undervalued
+0.4¢
LaMelo Ball(No)
+0.4¢
Stephen Curry(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With only 4 days left in the 2025-26 NBA regular season, Luka Doncic's lead in three-pointers made p...
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AI Analysis
NBA Southeast Division Winner
Sports|$768.9k Vol|
time4 days 5 hrs

NBA Southeast Division Winner

Top Undervalued
+1.2¢
Charlotte Hornets(Yes)
+0.9¢
Atlanta Hawks(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of April 8, 2026, the regular season is coming to an end (expires on April 12). The Atlanta Hawks...
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Rule Risk
The title asks for the 'NBA Southeast Division Winner', but the rules mention '2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals'. This is likely a copy-paste error or confusion, as division winners are determined by regular season records, not the conference finals. If interpreted strictly, this wording creates ambiguity. However, the resolution date (April 12, 2026) aligns with the end of the regular season, suggesting standard division rules apply. Despite this, the explicit mention of 'Conference Finals' warrants a risk flag.
Movers
2026-04-05 to 2026-04-07, Atlanta Hawks' price violently fluctuated between 98c and 67.05c, eventually settling around 86.6c, while Charlotte Hornets' price surged abnormally from 0.8c to 14.6c. This indicates speculative money betting on a theoretical comeback chance for the Hornets due to Hawks' recent loss and Hornets' win streak. 2026-04-01 to 2026-04-02, Atlanta Hawks' price rose from 80.95c to 94.95c, as the team further solidified its lead in the standings with only about 10 days left in the regular season, pushing its probability near 100%. 2026-03-31 to 2026-04-03, Atlanta Hawks' price rose from 78.8c to 93.95c, as the team essentially clinched the division title with only about a week left in the regular season. 2026-03-29 to 2026-04-01, Atlanta Hawks' price surged from 55.5c to 80.95c, as the team further solidified its lead in the standings with less than two weeks left in the regular season. 2026-03-22 to 2026-03-25, Orlando Magic's price crashed from 39c to 22c, while Atlanta Hawks surged from 28.8c to 38.2c. This shift is due to the Magic's recent losing streak, allowing the Hawks to secure the top spot in the division. 2026-03-22 to 2026-03-24, Charlotte Hornets saw an abnormal spike from 7.35c to 21.95c before dropping to 13.95c, indicating speculative money entering the highly contested division race. 2026-03-21 to 2026-03-24, the market experienced a violent 'seesaw' effect. Magic's price crashed from 45c to 26.5c, while Hawks surged from 20.8c to 34.15c, indicating a decisive positioning game occurred. 2026-03-19 to 2026-03-22, Atlanta Hawks' price rose from 17.85c to 28.8c, driven by their head-to-head victory over the Magic, securing the tiebreaker advantage.
AI Analysis
Which teams will make the NBA Playoffs?
Sports|$1.6m Vol|
time5 days 2 hrs

Which teams will make the NBA Playoffs?

Top Undervalued
+3¢
Miami Heat(No)
+2.5¢
Toronto Raptors(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With only 5 days left in the regular season, the playoff fate of these teams is mostly sealed. The T...
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Movers
April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, Atlanta Hawks' price dropped from 98.35c to 90.9c, then rebounded to 97.45c, as the team made quick adjustments after a minor setback in the final stretch. April 4, 2026 - April 7, 2026, Orlando Magic's price rose from 38.5c to 51.5c, due to excellent recent performances or competitor losses regaining them a more favorable play-in or qualification position. April 4, 2026 - April 7, 2026, Miami Heat's price continued to drop from 44c to 28.5c, due to recent crucial losses or strong performances by competitors, further decreasing their chances of making the playoffs. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, Toronto Raptors' price plummeted from 83c to 69.5c before rebounding to 76.5c, due to a crucial loss or a competitor's victory, significantly decreasing their chances of direct playoff qualification. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, Philadelphia 76ers' price plummeted from 92c to 81.5c before rebounding to around 86c, due to an unexpected setback in the standings before stabilizing. April 3, 2026 - April 6, 2026, Los Angeles Clippers' price plummeted from 71c to 55.5c, then slightly recovered to 62c, due to continued poor performance and increasing play-in or elimination risk. April 2, 2026 - April 6, 2026, Charlotte Hornets' price steadily rose from 52c to 66.5c, as the team secured crucial wins in the final stretch to solidify their standings. April 2, 2026 - April 6, 2026, Portland Trail Blazers' price rose from 29c to 41c, as fluctuations in competitors' records slightly improved their hopes of advancing through the Play-In. March 30, 2026 - April 2, 2026, Atlanta Hawks' price surged from 80c to 93c, as their continued winning streak further solidified their playoff spot.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
4th or lower
YesNo
12¢
88¢
84¢
16¢
+72¢
3rd hottest
YesNo
42.5¢
57.5¢
10¢
90¢
+32.5¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Divergence
Significant divergence. Market prices imply a >40% chance of April 2026 being the hottest on record, which completely contradicts NOAA/NASA observational data (recent months ranked 5th, exiting cooling La Niña). Scientific consensus places the probability of a new record at <5%.

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