The market relies heavily on a specific external tracker (xtracker) and has precise caveats for replies (only counted if on the main feed) and deleted posts (must survive ~5 minutes to be captured). Tracker downtime or scraping anomalies could cause discrepancies with manual profile counts.

Betting on the exact number of social media posts a politician makes in a specific week is a classic degenerate prop bet. The general public rarely wonders about this specific metric, making the market highly novel and entertainment-driven.

April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of '160-179' plummeted from 24c to 5c, as the posting pace failed to meet the expectations for this bracket over time, leading the market to drastically downgrade its probability. April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026, '120-139' fluctuated from 0.24c up to 0.415c and back to 0.27c, while '140-159' rose from 0.22c to 0.355c before settling at 0.27c. This occurred as early posting data caused market expectations to swing wildly regarding a final tally between 120 and 160. April 22, 2026 - April 24, 2026, options such as '200+', '180-199', and '60-79' experienced recurring volatile swings over 10c. For instance, '60-79' fell from 15.65c to 3.75c, while high-frequency brackets like '200+' bounced back by 10c after an initial drop, reflecting shifting trader expectations of Trump's posting pace and repeated rebalancing by market makers among mutually exclusive options. April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, 'Yes' prices for lower-frequency brackets like '40-59', '60-79', and '80-99' plummeted by over 15c (e.g., '40-59' crashed from 24.5c to 0.55c). This was driven by the market rapidly pricing out the likelihood of unusually low posting volumes as the tracking period approached.

Predicting the specific range of tweet counts for a government social media account in a given week is a classic hyper-niche and trivial novelty topic. Prior to seeing this market, the general public would never think about or track such obscure data.

April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option dropped from 38c to 22c, and the 160-179 option surged from 21.5c to 42.5c, as the White House posting frequency over the first two days significantly exceeded expectations, causing the market to upwardly revise the projected total. April 24, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the Yes price for the 100-119 option spiked from 4.8c to 17.65c, and the 160-179 option rose from 24c to 32.5c, due to small orders causing extreme volatility in a very low liquidity market.

High risk. The primary trap is the reliance on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and the rule that deleted posts only count if captured within ~5 minutes. Furthermore, the distinction between replies that appear on the main feed versus regular replies is ambiguous, which can lead to discrepancies between user perception and official resolution, causing disputes.

Highly exotic. Betting on the exact number of tweets a public figure will make in a designated week is a highly niche, entertainment-driven market. Ordinary people do not typically ponder or track this specific type of data.

April 25 - April 26, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option fell from 13.1c to 3.15c, and the 200-219 option dropped from 15.5c to 10.5c, as tweet tracking data showed Musk's posting frequency remained highly elevated, making lower expected total ranges unlikely. April 24 - April 25, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option plummeted from 15.75c to 2.45c, and the 200-219 option dropped from 18.5c to 9.5c. This occurred because updated tweet tracking data showed a noticeable increase in Musk's posting frequency, causing the market to revise the expected total upward to the 240-299 ranges. April 24 - April 25, 2026, the price of the 200-219 option increased from 12.5c to 17.5c, the 220-239 option increased from 15.5c to 17.5c, the 260-279 option dropped from 15.5c to 9.5c, and the 280-299 option dropped from 12.5c to 7.5c. This occurred because updated tweet tracking data pointed towards a lower-to-middle range frequency, causing the market to reprice. April 21 - April 24, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 3.5c to 13.95c as early tracking data over the initial days suggested the final count might fall into a lower-to-middle range, prompting market repricing.

The prediction market currently assigns a very high probability to 71°F or below (21.5%) and 74-75°F (21%), whereas mainstream weather forecasts generally predict a high between 77-80°F. This indicates a significant divergence, possibly due to market inefficiency or participants anticipating that rain will severely suppress the daytime high.