Explain in the simplest terms: What are the exact resolution criteria and win/loss conditions for this 'ChatGPT Outage' prediction market?

AI-powered analysis for: Explain in the simplest terms: What are the exact resolution criteria and win/loss conditions for this 'ChatGPT Outage' prediction market?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Check the official status page (status.openai.com): If an 'API' or 'Sora' outage occurs without affecting ChatGPT, will it trigger a 'Yes' resolution?

AI-powered analysis for: Check the official status page (status.openai.com): If an 'API' or 'Sora' outage occurs without affecting ChatGPT, will it trigger a 'Yes' resolution?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search historical data: What has been the actual frequency of OpenAI's ChatGPT experiencing incidents officially labeled as 'Partial/Full Outage' over the past year?

AI-powered analysis for: Search historical data: What has been the actual frequency of OpenAI's ChatGPT experiencing incidents officially labeled as 'Partial/Full Outage' over the past year?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Verify data source reliability: Is OpenAI's official status page (status.openai.com) updated promptly? Is there a risk of delayed outage reporting?

AI-powered analysis for: Verify data source reliability: Is OpenAI's official status page (status.openai.com) updated promptly? Is there a risk of delayed outage reporting?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Rule pitfalls and historical disputes: In previous outage-related Polymarket predictions, have there been disputes caused by official post-incident classification revisions (e.g., upgrading to Partial Outage)? How were they resolved?

AI-powered analysis for: Rule pitfalls and historical disputes: In previous outage-related Polymarket predictions, have there been disputes caused by official post-incident classification revisions (e.g., upgrading to Partial Outage)? How were they resolved?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Key timeline check: If an outage incident is still ongoing at 00:00 ET on April 17, will funds be locked up until the incident is resolved and officially classified?

AI-powered analysis for: Key timeline check: If an outage incident is still ongoing at 00:00 ET on April 17, will funds be locked up until the incident is resolved and officially classified?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Opposing arguments retrieval: List the top 3 core bearish arguments on why 'ChatGPT will definitely NOT experience a major outage before April 17' (e.g., recent server upgrades).

AI-powered analysis for: Opposing arguments retrieval: List the top 3 core bearish arguments on why 'ChatGPT will definitely NOT experience a major outage before April 17' (e.g., recent server upgrades).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Time decay (Theta) analysis: If OpenAI's systems remain stable over the next few days, which side (Yes or No) benefits more from the passage of time?

AI-powered analysis for: Time decay (Theta) analysis: If OpenAI's systems remain stable over the next few days, which side (Yes or No) benefits more from the passage of time?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Randomness vs. predictability analysis: Is a ChatGPT server outage a purely random black swan event, or can it be predicted based on recent model update release patterns?

AI-powered analysis for: Randomness vs. predictability analysis: Is a ChatGPT server outage a purely random black swan event, or can it be predicted based on recent model update release patterns?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Potential catalyst prediction: Does OpenAI plan to push any major version updates (e.g., GPT-5 beta) before April 10 or 17, and would this increase the probability of an outage?

AI-powered analysis for: Potential catalyst prediction: Does OpenAI plan to push any major version updates (e.g., GPT-5 beta) before April 10 or 17, and would this increase the probability of an outage?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Risk-reward qualitative analysis: Is betting on a short-term ChatGPT outage currently a 'picking up pennies' (high win rate, low odds) or a 'buying a lottery ticket' (low win rate, high odds) play?

AI-powered analysis for: Risk-reward qualitative analysis: Is betting on a short-term ChatGPT outage currently a 'picking up pennies' (high win rate, low odds) or a 'buying a lottery ticket' (low win rate, high odds) play?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Extreme bottom projection: Assuming OpenAI announces a major technical breakthrough in stability over the next two weeks, what would be the bottom support price for the 'Yes' option?

AI-powered analysis for: Extreme bottom projection: Assuming OpenAI announces a major technical breakthrough in stability over the next two weeks, what would be the bottom support price for the 'Yes' option?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Social viral potential: Does this AI outage prediction topic have the potential to go viral in tech communities (like X or Reddit's programming subreddits) and attract retail capital?

AI-powered analysis for: Social viral potential: Does this AI outage prediction topic have the potential to go viral in tech communities (like X or Reddit's programming subreddits) and attract retail capital?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Historical fractal comparison: Looking back at ChatGPT's outages during last year's DDoS attacks or major updates, do the current market odds match the pricing patterns from those events?

AI-powered analysis for: Historical fractal comparison: Looking back at ChatGPT's outages during last year's DDoS attacks or major updates, do the current market odds match the pricing patterns from those events?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Low liquidity 'Stink Bid' strategy: Given the low volume of only ~$32, how should one place extremely low bids (Stink Bids) in the deep order book to catch sudden panic selling?

AI-powered analysis for: Low liquidity 'Stink Bid' strategy: Given the low volume of only ~$32, how should one place extremely low bids (Stink Bids) in the deep order book to catch sudden panic selling?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Opportunity cost of capital: Considering this event might not resolve until April 17, is the expected excess return worth locking up funds here compared to risk-free yields in DeFi protocols?

AI-powered analysis for: Opportunity cost of capital: Considering this event might not resolve until April 17, is the expected excess return worth locking up funds here compared to risk-free yields in DeFi protocols?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Kelly criterion sizing recommendation: If you have a strong intuition about recent OpenAI server instability, what percentage of your portfolio should you allocate to 'Yes' based on the Kelly criterion?

AI-powered analysis for: Kelly criterion sizing recommendation: If you have a strong intuition about recent OpenAI server instability, what percentage of your portfolio should you allocate to 'Yes' based on the Kelly criterion?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Risk premium assessment: If OpenAI officially defines an issue merely as 'Degraded Performance' instead of a 'Partial Outage', is the current odds discount enough to offset this classification risk?

AI-powered analysis for: Risk premium assessment: If OpenAI officially defines an issue merely as 'Degraded Performance' instead of a 'Partial Outage', is the current odds discount enough to offset this classification risk?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

High-quality niche sources recommendation: Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter/developer accounts dedicated to tracking OpenAI system status, API stability, or cloud server health.

AI-powered analysis for: High-quality niche sources recommendation: Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter/developer accounts dedicated to tracking OpenAI system status, API stability, or cloud server health.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

One-page trading plan generation: Synthesize a brief trading plan for the 'ChatGPT Outage by April 17' event, including entry rationale, target price, and invalidation conditions (e.g., stop loss if no server fluctuations for 3 consecutive days).

AI-powered analysis for: One-page trading plan generation: Synthesize a brief trading plan for the 'ChatGPT Outage by April 17' event, including entry rationale, target price, and invalidation conditions (e.g., stop loss if no server fluctuations for 3 consecutive days).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

ChatGPT Outage by...?

Tech|$2,673 Vol|

2 days 9 hrs

ChatGPT Outage by...? - AI Found +28¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.13 20:03

Top Undervalued

+28¢

April 17(No)

ChatGPT Outage by...? AI analysis: • +28¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of April 13, 2026, there are less than 4 days left until the April 17 settlement. Recently, the O...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

April 17

YesNo

38¢

62¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+28¢

April 24

YesNo

53¢

47¢

0¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the Yes price for the April 17 option dropped from 44.5c to 27.5c (later rebounding to 38.5c). The reason is that as the deadline approaches further without any major incidents meeting the 'Partial/Full Outage' criteria on the OpenAI system, the accelerated time decay has led to a rapid reassessment of the probability for the Yes option. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the Yes price for the April 17 option fluctuated wildly between 30c and 62.5c, eventually stabilizing around 44c. The reason is that as the deadline approaches without any major incidents meeting the 'Partial/Full Outage' criteria on the OpenAI system, time decay has led to a rapid reassessment of the probability for the Yes option. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the Yes price for the April 17 option dropped from 62.5c to around 43.5c. The reason is that as the deadline approaches without any major incidents meeting the 'Partial/Full Outage' criteria on the OpenAI system, time decay has led to a rapid reassessment of the probability for the Yes option. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the Yes price for the April 10 option dropped from 30c to 15c, and the Yes price for the April 17 option fell from 62.5c to 52c, similarly due to approaching deadlines without major outages.