Elections|$11.1k Vol|
76 days 4 hrsChungcheongbuk Province Governor Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Shin Yong-han
YesNo
Kim Young-hwan
YesNo
Cho Gil-hyeong
YesNo
Song Ki-sub
YesNo
Yoon Hee-geun
YesNo
Noh Yeong-min
YesNo
Lee Jong-bae
YesNo
Do Jong-hwan
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 23:54 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is currently in an irrational 'overheated' state, with the sum of all 'Yes' prices reaching approximately 135 cents, implying a probability of over 135%, which is mathematically impossible. This distortion is primarily driven by speculative trading around the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) primary, where three main contenders (Shin, Noh, Song) are all severely overvalued. While the DPK holds a macro advantage (~60% total win probability) due to the Yoon administration's low approval ratings, the current pricing assumes these three candidates can simultaneously hold high win rates. We have corrected the DPK candidates' collective fair value to ~60-65c and kept the ruling PPP candidates (Cho, Kim, etc.) in the 35-40c range. Incumbent Kim Young-hwan's price of 13.4c is relatively reasonable despite low popularity, while Song Ki-sub's solid administrative track record gives him a higher long-term fair value than the highly volatile Shin Yong-han.
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Movers
March 10, 2026 - March 13, 2026, Shin Yong-han's price plummeted from 54.0c to 25.5c before rebounding to 35.5c; simultaneously, Song Ki-sub (surged from 16.0c to 28.6c) and Noh Yeong-min (surged from 15.5c to 29.0c) saw significant gains. Reason: The market drastically repriced the DPK primary race. Shin's price was likely pumped due to short-term speculation or a single poll, followed by a rapid rotation of capital back to the more established figures Song and Noh, shifting the narrative from a clear frontrunner to a chaotic three-way tie.
February 9, 2026 - February 11, 2026, Song Ki-sub's price surged from 14.9c to 24.6c. Reason: He held his retirement ceremony as Jincheon Mayor on Feb 9 and formally registered as a preliminary candidate, solidifying his status as a top-tier DPK contender.
Divergence
There is a significant mathematical divergence. While mainstream consensus agrees that the DPK (opposition) has an edge in the Chungcheongbuk Governor election, the prediction market's current pricing (Sum of Yes ~135) implies the absurd logic that multiple candidates could win simultaneously. Specifically, the combined price of Shin, Noh, and Song is nearly 100c, completely crowding out the ruling PPP candidates, which contradicts polls showing the PPP still retains a base support of ~30-35%.
