All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↓ $55
YesNo
↑ $150
YesNo
↑ $100
YesNo
↑ $200
YesNo
↓ $47
YesNo
↓ $52
YesNo
↓ $50
YesNo
↓ $35
YesNo
↓ $40
YesNo
↑ $110
YesNo
↓ $45
YesNo
AI Insights:
12 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
WTI Crude is currently trading in the $94-$96 range. Although tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have sparked fears of historical supply disruptions (IEA reports 8 mb/d affected), the coordinated release of 400 mb from strategic reserves by IEA members has effectively dampened extreme panic. The market is shifting from pure 'war panic' to a rational assessment of supply and demand. For [↑ $100], given the current price is only $4-$6 away and daily volatility is high, the probability of touching this level is extremely high; fair value is estimated at 88c. For [↑ $150], while geopolitical tail risks remain, the market now realizes global inventories can buffer short-term shocks, making the 29c price rich in premium; fair value is adjusted down to 18c. Regarding downside options like [↓ $55], in an environment of constrained supply and high inflation, the likelihood of oil prices halving to $55 within 3 months is negligible. The market's 16c pricing represents significant mispricing; fair value should be below 5c.
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Hedging
Crude Oil
This market directly tracks Crude Oil prices, serving as a direct hedge for energy portfolios (Score 5). Significant oil price movements typically impact inflation expectations, thereby affecting US 10Y Yields, and act as a macro cost factor that can cause minor to moderate inverse movements or sector divergence in the S&P 500.
Movers
March 14, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of [↑ $100] fell from 93.6c to 79.8c (a 13.8c drop), and [↑ $110] fell from 78.5c to 66.5c (a 12c drop). The reason is that while Middle East tensions remain high, the IEA's announcement of a 400 million barrel strategic reserve release significantly cooled market panic. Traders began taking profits on the extreme 'total supply disruption' hypothesis, leading to a pullback in call option prices.
March 11, 2026 - March 14, 2026, call options surged across the board, with [↑ $100] rising from 74c to 94c and [↑ $150] spiking from 22.5c to 38c. The driver was a sharp deterioration in the Middle East and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, causing the market to panic-price supply disruption risks.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between the market's pricing of downside risk (↓ $55 at 16%) and mainstream institutional forecasts. While institutions like JPM have a bearish outlook averaging $60 for 2026, this is based on long-term supply/demand loosening, not an immediate crash. The Prediction Market is currently overpricing the downside tail risk (16c), whereas mainstream analysis favors oil prices consolidating in the high $80-$100 range before a slow retreat, with very few predicting an extreme low of $55 by June.
