This market directly tracks Crude Oil prices, serving as a direct hedge for energy portfolios (Score 5). Significant oil price movements typically impact inflation expectations, thereby affecting US 10Y Yields, and act as a macro cost factor that can cause minor to moderate inverse movements or sector divergence in the S&P 500.

April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of [↑ $115] dropped from 77.55c to 66.05c, and [↑ $120] dropped from 64.5c to 53.5c, as extreme bullish sentiment cooled off after a short-term rally, with the market seeing technical profit-taking and a temporary unwinding of geopolitical premiums. April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of [↑ $115] surged significantly from 53.4c to 73.45c, [↑ $120] spiked from 47.5c to 58.5c, and [↑ $130] rose from 30c to 41.5c. This is likely due to a renewed severe deterioration in geopolitical situations or sudden major supply shocks, causing the market to become extremely bullish on crude oil and frantically price in upside risks in the short term. April 25, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of [↑ $120] rebounded from 36.5c to 44c, driven by persistent geopolitical concerns that kept bullish sentiment oscillating at high levels. April 22, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of [↑ $115] surged from 37.45c to 51.8c, experienced consolidation, and eventually climbed to 54.35c; [↑ $120] rose significantly from 27c to 44.5c; [↓ $80] plummeted from 73.5c to 60c. This was due to geopolitical tensions reigniting after a brief lull, causing the market to rapidly re-price upward breakout expectations, while downside expectations significantly weakened. April 22, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of [↑ $115] surged from 37.45c to 51.8c before retreating slightly to 46.4c, while [↓ $80] plummeted from 73.5c to 61c before bouncing back to 66c. This occurred because geopolitical tensions showed faint signs of easing after an extreme escalation, leading the market into short-term high-level technical consolidation and profit-taking after rapidly pricing in the upside breakout. April 21, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of [↑ $115] surged from 35.85c to 51.8c, and [↓ $80] plummeted from 76c to 61c, as geopolitical risk premiums continued to soar, strengthening market expectations for an upside breakout in spot crude oil and significantly weakening downside expectations. April 21, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the price of [↓ $80] plummeted from 76c to 64.5c, and [↑ $115] surged from 35.85c to 46c, as renewed geopolitical tensions or sudden supply concerns pushed the oil market back into an upward trajectory, significantly weakening downside expectations. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of [↑ $115] retreated from 42.1c to 35.85c, as short-term market concerns over geopolitical conflicts cooled, leading to a slight unwind of the crude oil upside risk premium. April 18, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of [↑ $115] rebounded sharply from 34.8c to 44.4c, and [↑ $130] rose from 17.5c to 25c, while [↓ $80] fell from 78c to 71.5c, as geopolitical concerns reignited, the spot market saw a short-term upward technical correction, and previously extreme bearish sentiment receded. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of [↓ $85] surged from 80c to 99.95c, as expectations of a rapid short-term decline in spot crude prices took hold, and the market almost fully priced in hitting the target below $85. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of [↑ $115] rebounded from 33.45c to 41.35c, and [↑ $120] from 25c to 30.5c, while [↓ $85] retreated from 86c to 80c. This was due to a technical oversold rebound in spot crude prices after the previous plunge, with short covering slightly repairing bullish sentiment. April 14, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of [↓ $80] surged from 54c to 70.5c, and [↑ $115] plummeted from 58.65c to 33.45c, as the collapse of crude oil bullish sentiment accelerated, further squeezing out geopolitical premiums and reinforcing market expectations of a sharp spot price decline. April 13, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of [↓ $80] surged from 47.5c to 70c, [↑ $115] plummeted from 70.75c to 48.95c, and [↑ $120] plummeted from 60c to 35.5c, as crude oil bullish sentiment cooled off rapidly and the fading geopolitical premium led to a sharp rise in spot bearish expectations. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of [↓ $80] rebounded from 47.5c to 54c, and [↑ $140] retreated significantly from 32.5c to 22.5c, as previous extreme bullish sentiment cooled and the market experienced a technical pullback after digesting geopolitical premiums. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of [↓ $80] plummeted from 59c to 47.5c, as bullish sentiment in crude oil continued to dominate the market and downside risk expectations weakened. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of [↑ $140] surged from 21.5c to 34.5c, as bullish sentiment erupted once again and market expectations for a spot upside breakout strengthened significantly after a brief consolidation. April 8, 2026 - April 11, 2026, after the downside panic eased, the crude oil market saw a slight bearish recovery. The price of [↓ $80] rebounded from 53c to 58c, and [↓ $70] from 26c to 32c; meanwhile, [↑ $115] retreated from 62.45c to 56.1c, as the spot market met resistance after a short-term rebound and bearish sentiment partially regained dominance. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the crude oil market experienced a violent reversal. The price of [↑ $115] plummeted from 91.5c to 50c, [↑ $120] crashed from 84.5c to 46.5c, while [↓ $80] surged from 48c to 70c, as the extreme bullish sentiment bubble burst, likely due to geopolitical cooling or spot pullbacks. April 5, 2026 - April 7, 2026, prices of various options maintained high-volatility fluctuations at elevated levels, indicating market consolidation at the highs without single-sided moves over 10c. April 1, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of [↑ $115] surged from 62.5c to 89c, and [↑ $120] from 47.5c to 78.5c, due to continued explosive bullish sentiment in crude oil. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, [↑ $120] plummeted from 63.5c to 47.5c, while [↓ $85] surged from 63.5c to 68.5c due to profit-taking and spot market corrections after bullish sentiment peaked at the end of the month. March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026, [↑ $110] surged from 69.5c to 86c driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts.

This market is directly anchored to Gold futures prices, offering a perfect correlation for hedging underlying Gold exposure. Significant moves in Gold typically drive correlated volatility in Silver and often show inverse correlation with the Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury Yields, providing clear macro trading utility.

April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the ↑ $5,000 option plunged from 54.5c to 37.5c before rebounding to 43c, the ↑ $4,900 option plunged from 63.5c to 53.5c, the ↑ $5,100 option plunged from 41c to 25.5c before stabilizing at 27c, and the ↓ $4,500 option surged from 57c to 72c. This was due to gold experiencing a severe drop during this period, but subsequently finding some buying interest at support levels, which slowed the downward momentum. Consequently, put options hit highs, while call options experienced a significant pullback followed by a slight recovery. April 27, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the ↓ $4,600 option surged from 71.5c to 99.95c, the ↑ $5,000 option plunged from 58.5c to 37.5c, the ↑ $4,900 option plunged from 68.5c to 53.5c, the ↑ $5,100 option plunged from 44.5c to 25.5c, and the ↑ $5,200 option plunged from 32c to 19c. This was driven by gold's continued violent decline, likely already triggering the $4,600 settlement threshold, skyrocketing the probabilities of downside targets and entirely collapsing expectations for an upside rebound. April 26, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the ↓ $4,600 option surged from 73c to 89.4c, the ↑ $5,000 option plunged from 57.5c to 38.5c, and the ↑ $5,100 option plunged from 43.5c to 30.5c. This was driven by another sharp leg down in gold prices in late April, heavily cooling market expectations for a rebound above $5,000, and virtually confirming the $4,600 downward target will be hit. April 25, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the ↓ $4,700 option surged from 83.5c to 99.95c, as gold prices likely touched or came extremely close to the $4,700 settlement threshold during this period, virtually confirming a 'Yes' resolution for this option. April 24, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the ↓ $4,700 option plunged from 93c to 82.5c, as gold rebounded from oversold conditions after its sharp previous dive, leading the market to temper its extreme pessimism about a continued severe near-term drop. April 21, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the ↑ $5,100 option plunged from 56.5c to 38.5c, the ↑ $5,000 option plunged from 71.5c to 56.5c, while the ↓ $4,700 option surged from 77.5c to 93c. This was due to a sharp recent correction in gold prices, severe exhaustion of bullish momentum, and market conviction that prices will test new recent lows. April 20, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the ↑ $5,100 option plunged from 64c to 46.5c, the ↑ $5,000 option plunged from 76c to 59.5c, and the ↑ $4,900 option plunged from 88.5c to 72.5c, while the ↓ $4,700 option surged from 75c to 89.5c. This was due to further exhaustion of gold's upside momentum and the confirmation of a downward correction trend, causing market expectations for gold to drop below $4,700 by the end of June to rise sharply, while optimism for continuing to break highs completely collapsed. April 19, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the ↑ $5,200 option plunged from 55c to 35.5c, the ↑ $5,100 option plunged from 64.5c to 47.5c, the ↓ $4,700 option surged from 73.5c to 85.5c, and the ↓ $4,500 option surged from 46.5c to 56.5c. This was due to significant pullback pressure on short-term gold prices and increased upside resistance, cooling market expectations for a breakout to high levels before the end of June. April 19, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the ↑ $5,300 option plunged from 43.5c to 33c due to weakening short-term upside momentum in gold prices, with market optimism for breaking the $5,300 level by expiration cooling significantly. April 17, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the ↑ $5,300 option surged from 19.5c to 43c, the ↑ $5,400 option surged from 15.5c to 30.5c, while the ↓ $4,600 option plunged from 76c to 62.5c, and the ↑ $5,200 option plunged from 68c to 54c. This was due to strong short-term gold trends, with market expectations of breaking higher resistance levels by the end of June significantly increasing, while concerns of falling back to lower support levels rapidly weakened. April 14, 2026 - April 17, 2026, prices for all options continued to consolidate with no fluctuations exceeding 10c (↓ $4,200 moved from 27c to 27.5c), showing stabilized short-term market sentiment. April 13, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the ↓ $4,200 option dropped from 37c to 23.5c, as short-term gold trends further stabilized, consistently weakening market fears of breaking below this support level. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, prices for all options continued to consolidate, with no fluctuations strictly exceeding 10c (↓ $4,200 dropped exactly 10c), showing stable market expectations. April 6, 2026 - April 10, 2026, prices for all options continued to trade in a narrow range with no fluctuations exceeding 10c, indicating a stable wait-and-see market period. April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the ↑ $5,500 option plunged from 36.65c to 21.05c, as gold's previous rally paused, significantly cooling market optimism for a near-term breakout above $5,500. March 30, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the ↓ $4,200 option plunged from 67c to 33.5c, the ↓ $3,800 option dropped from 23.35c to 11.65c, and the ↑ $5,500 option surged from 26.2c to 36.65c, due to a sustained and strong rebound in gold prices, significantly dissipating market fears of a sharp decline by the end of June while boosting expectations of a breakout above $5,500.

Silver has an extremely high positive correlation with Gold. If Silver triggers extreme strike prices (e.g., $120 or $35), it typically implies a major macro inflationary or deflationary shock, causing Gold prices to move significantly. Additionally, Silver prices are strongly inversely driven by the US Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury Yields. This market serves as a direct hedge for commodity volatility.

2026-04-30 to 2026-05-01, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 61c to 54c, as silver stabilized somewhat after a short sharp drop, reducing immediate downside probability. 2026-04-27 to 2026-04-30, the price of ↓ $65 rose from 47.5c to 61c, as silver prices faced some downward pressure in the short term, and market expectations of touching downside support levels increased. 2026-04-25 to 2026-04-26, the price of ↓ $55 dropped from 24.5c to 14.5c, as silver prices showed some resilience after short-term consolidation, and the market quickly priced out the expectation of breaking below this support level in the near term. 2026-04-22 to 2026-04-23, the price of ↓ $65 plunged from 60c to 43.5c, as silver prices experienced a corrective rebound after a sharp short-term decline, rapidly cooling market expectations of testing this support level in the near term. 2026-04-20 to 2026-04-22, the price of ↓ $65 surged from 40.5c to 60c, as silver prices faced significant short-term downward pressure, accelerating bearish momentum and drastically raising market expectations of breaking this support level in the near term. 2026-04-17 to 2026-04-18, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 45.5c to 33c, and ↓ $60 dropped from 32.5c to 21c. The reason is that silver prices showed some resilience after short-term consolidation, and the market quickly priced out the expectation of breaking below key support levels in the near term. 2026-04-18 to 2026-04-19, the price of ↓ $65 rebounded from 33c to 40c, as silver prices faced some downward pressure in the short term, and market expectations of touching downside support levels increased. 2026-04-16 to 2026-04-18, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 42.5c to 33c, and ↓ $60 dropped from 29.5c to 21c, as silver prices stabilized following a short-term correction, prompting the market to further price out the likelihood of continued deep dives in the near term. 2026-04-13 to 2026-04-16, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 56.5c to 42.5c, and ↓ $60 dropped from 42c to 29.5c, as silver prices hit a strong support level following a short-term correction and experienced a significant rebound, prompting the market to rapidly price out the likelihood of continued deep dives in the near term. 2026-04-13 to 2026-04-15, the price of ↓ $65 plunged from 56.5c to 38.5c, and ↓ $60 plunged from 42c to 27.5c, as silver prices hit a strong support level following a short-term correction and experienced a significant rebound, prompting the market to rapidly price out the likelihood of continued deep dives in the near term. 2026-04-11 to 2026-04-13, the price of ↓ $65 rose from 43.5c to 56.5c, and ↓ $55 rose from 16.5c to 26.5c, as silver prices faced strong renewed pullback pressure after the previous rebound, causing market expectations of touching these downside support levels in the short term to heat up rapidly. 2026-04-09 to 2026-04-11, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 61c to 43.5c, and ↓ $55 dropped from 31c to 16.5c. The reason is that silver prices rebounded strongly after bottoming out, significantly reducing the probability of hitting deep downside targets in the short term. 2026-04-06 to 2026-04-08, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 62.5c to 51c. The reason is that silver prices showed a phased stabilization and rebound after hitting the bottom, and the market further downgraded the risk probability of continued deep declines in the short term. 2026-03-30 to 2026-04-02, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 77.5c to 62c, ↓ $60 dropped from 58.5c to 36.5c, and ↓ $55 dropped from 41.5c to 23c. The reason is that silver prices continued their strong rebound, and the market further drastically priced out extreme downside risks, bursting the put tail pricing bubble. 2026-03-29 to 2026-04-01, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 74c to 62.5c, and ↓ $60 dropped from 58.5c to 43c, as silver prices continued to rebound and stabilize, further pricing out extreme downside risks. 2026-03-24 to 2026-03-27, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 81c to 74.5c, and ↓ $60 dropped from 61c to 52.5c, as silver prices continued to stabilize and the market further priced out extreme downside risks in the near term. 2026-03-23 to 2026-03-25, the price of ↓ $65 crashed from 85c to 65.5c, and ↓ $60 crashed from 65.5c to 49.5c. The reason is that market panic subsided further, and expectations of silver stabilizing and rebounding in the short term strengthened, significantly reducing the probability of breaking down below recent lows. 2026-03-21 to 2026-03-24, the price of ↓ $45 crashed from 42c to 20c, as market panic subsided after the weekend. Traders reassessed the extreme probability of silver 'halving' to $45 in the short term, leading to a burst in the premium of deep OTM put options. 2026-03-23 to 2026-03-24, the price of ↑ $120 rebounded from 15c to 22.5c, driven by the US delaying military strikes on Iran. This eased some liquidity pressure, prompting bets on a potential retaliatory bounce in silver prices after the oversold conditions.

This market tracks Gold directly, making it a primary hedge for precious metals portfolios or inflation exposure. Significant moves in Gold are strongly inversely correlated with Real Rates (US 10Y) and the Dollar (DXY), and highly positively correlated with Silver.

While the core rule relies on CME settlement prices, the definition of 'Active Month' introduces complexity. The rule specifies the Active Month is the nearest delivery-cycle month excluding the spot month. For end of June 2026, determining which contract is 'Active' is crucial. Typically, the July 2026 contract would be active, but if it passes its First Position Date (often late the prior month or early in the delivery month), it becomes non-active, rolling the active status to September. This rollover timing can be confusing for non-professional traders, presenting a distinct rule risk.

This prediction market is directly linked to actual Silver futures prices, making it a perfect hedging tool in itself. If the implied probability in this market diverges significantly from actual futures market pricing, it creates an arbitrage opportunity (Score 3). Additionally, Silver is highly correlated with Gold, the Dollar Index (DXY), and real rates (inverse to US 10Y Yields), though these assets are less impacted by Silver's specific price moves and are more driven by shared macro drivers.

Apr 28, 2026 - Apr 30, 2026, the price of '$80 Yes' dropped from 47c to 34.5c, indicating short-term speculative profit-taking or market makers correcting previous abnormal highs. Apr 20, 2026 - Apr 22, 2026, the price of '$65 Yes' dropped from 85c to 72.5c, indicating short-term speculative profit-taking or market makers correcting previous abnormal highs. Apr 14, 2026 - Apr 15, 2026, the price of '$95 Yes' surged from 17.5c to 48.5c, driven by concentrated speculative buying or a severe lack of order book depth causing a liquidity dry-up and extreme pricing anomalies. Apr 6, 2026 - Apr 8, 2026, the price of '$85 Yes' dropped significantly from 32c to 25.5c, after a sharp fall from 40.5c on Apr 5, reflecting receding speculative enthusiasm for overly high target prices as the delivery month approaches, or pricing anomalies caused by internal platform liquidity issues. Mar 29, 2026 - Apr 1, 2026, the price of '$80 Yes' surged from 32.5c to 49.5c, driven by the rotation of safe-haven funds in the precious metals market and rebounding inflation expectations, significantly boosting confidence that silver will break $80. Mar 22, 2026 - Mar 23, 2026, the price of '$90 Yes' surged from 20.25c to 31.15c, driven by some funds betting on a short-term rebound. Mar 22, 2026 - Mar 23, 2026, the price of '$85 Yes' surged from 31c to 42.5c, also pushed by short-term funds. Mar 17, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, the price of '$80 Yes' plunged from 51c to 33.5c, driven by the Fed holding rates steady and signaling hawkishness, which caused silver spot prices to break the $74 support level and triggered panic selling. Mar 17, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, the price of '$85 Yes' fell from 47.5c to 34c, similarly impacted by expectations of tightening macro liquidity.

This event is a direct derivative of crude oil prices. For investors holding energy inventory or energy stocks (like XOM), this market offers a perfect hedging tool. If crude oil settles unexpectedly in an extreme bracket (e.g., <$42 or >$84), it would have a significant impact on global inflation expectations (affecting US yields) and the energy sector.

This prediction market corresponds directly to Crude Oil futures prices, creating a very strong correlation with 'Crude Oil' itself (Score 4). Oil price fluctuations significantly impact the performance of energy stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Additionally, as a key input for inflation expectations, oil prices indirectly affect US 10Y Yields and the DXY, though the impact is more moderate and context-dependent.

From Apr 25, 2026 to Apr 28, 2026, the price of $70 Yes crashed from 84.05c to 60.85c before rebounding sharply to 78.1c. This was caused by liquidity gaps due to shallow market depth, where minor sell orders triggered extreme volatility before arbitrageurs stepped in to correct the pricing. From Apr 18, 2026 to Apr 19, 2026, the price of $85 Yes surged from 38.5c to 49.5c, driven by short-term spot market volatility and gap trades caused by poor liquidity across the options chain. From Mar 28, 2026 to Mar 31, 2026, the price of $50 Yes surged from 61.95c to 89.05c, and $55 Yes surged from 59.5c to 90c, due to market sentiment returning to rationality and correcting the previous collapse in deep ITM option pricing caused by geopolitical news. From Mar 21, 2026 to Mar 24, 2026, the price of $50 Yes crashed from 88c to 61.9c, and $56 Yes crashed from 83c to 57c; conversely, $90 Yes surged from 46.5c to 60c. The reason was a drastic market reaction to news of delayed strikes on Iran, causing pricing to fracture from a 'normal distribution' into a 'binary outcome' (bets concentrating on extreme crash or extreme spike), with illiquidity exacerbating the collapse of intermediate strike pricing.

This market directly corresponds to the price movement of Gold futures, offering high direct hedging value (Score 4). Additionally, significant fluctuations in Gold prices are typically inversely correlated with the Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury Yields (US 10Y Yield), reflecting macro inflation expectations or risk-off sentiment.

The rules explicitly state that prices are truncated to two decimal places (e.g., $3.257 is counted as $3.25) rather than using standard rounding. This deviates from common intuition and could lead careless traders to misjudge boundary prices, posing a moderate rule trap.

The national average gas price is highly positively correlated with Crude Oil. If gas prices hit the higher threshold options (e.g., $5.00), it typically reflects a substantial supply shock or demand surge in the oil market. Furthermore, sustained high gasoline prices elevate inflation expectations, which could exert upward pressure on the US 10-Year Treasury Yield.