What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?
Commodities|$4.6m Vol|
time58 days 22 hrs

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 20:52
Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
↓ $4,300(Yes)
+5¢
↓ $4,500(Yes)
+3.6¢
↑ $5,700(Yes)

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June? AI analysis: • +5.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Over the past few days, the gold market has stabilized, with the previous violent downward momentum ...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?
netflix|$11.9k Vol|
time2 days 5 hrs

What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?

Top Undervalued
+3.1¢
Apex(No)
+1.1¢
Swapped(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest daily streaming charts (e.g., FlixPatrol) and recent market trading dynamics, 'A...
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Rule Risk
The rules explicitly state the resolution is based on the 'Global Top 10 Movies (English only)' list, while the title omits this language restriction, potentially misleading traders betting on popular non-English films. Additionally, there is a timing risk where the market resolves to 'Other' if the website update is delayed by more than three days.
Movers
April 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026: The price of 'Apex' surged from 51c to 96c, while other options like 'Swapped' plummeted (e.g., 'Swapped' fell from 25c to 3c). This was driven by daily viewership data from streaming trackers confirming that 'Apex' maintained an absolute global lead throughout the week, eliminating any competitive suspense.
AI Analysis
Farrer By-Election Winner
Politics|$174.3k Vol|
time242 days 5 hrs

Farrer By-Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
David Farley(No)
+3¢
Michelle Milthorpe(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Farrer is traditionally an ultra-safe seat for the Liberal/National Coalition. As the by-election ap...
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Rule Risk
This market carries extreme resolution risk (Risk Score 5). 1. **Missing Favorites**: Farrer is historically a safe Liberal seat, and both the Liberal and National Parties are confirmed to contest the by-election. However, the market options only list three specific candidates (Dalton, Scriven, Milthorpe), **completely omitting the Liberal and National Party candidates**, who are the likely favorites. 2. **Ambiguous Fallback**: The rules state the market resolves to 'Other' if voting *does not take place*, but fail to explicitly state that it resolves to 'Other' if an *unlisted candidate* wins. If a tradable 'Other' option is not present, a victory by the Liberal candidate would leave the market with no valid resolution, likely leading to a dispute or voided market. This is a classic 'missing field' trap.
Movers
April 22, 2026 - April 26, 2026, David Farley's price rose steadily from 47.5c to 66c, while Michelle Milthorpe's price dropped from 49.5c to 34c. The reason is that as the by-election draws closer, the Coalition's base advantage in the ultra-safe seat becomes more apparent, prompting the market to squeeze out the speculative premium on the independent candidate and return to fundamentals. April 16, 2026 - April 19, 2026, David Farley's price surged from 18.5c to 42.5c, while Raissa Butkowski's price crashed from 21c to 3.6c. The reason is that as the by-election approaches and party nominations clear up, the market recognized Farley as the core major party candidate (likely the Coalition), absorbing scattered vote expectations while competitors were sold off. April 8, 2026 - April 11, 2026, Michelle Milthorpe's price rose from 39c to 58c. The reason is that as the by-election date approaches, market capital is further betting on her chances as the only competitive independent candidate, driving up a speculative premium. April 1, 2026 - April 4, 2026, Michelle Milthorpe's price rose from 35c to 46c. The reason is the formal announcement of the by-election date (May 9) and the issuing of writs, which solidified market expectations of her campaign momentum as the primary independent challenger. Concurrently, Rebecca Scriven's price wildly fluctuated from 1.8c to 17.3c and back to 8c, driven by speculative buying in a low-liquidity market following news that her Family First party would withhold preference votes from One Nation. March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Michelle Milthorpe's price dropped from 34c to 21.5c before a minor rebound. The reason is likely a market reality check regarding an independent's actual chances in the traditional Coalition stronghold of Farrer, with liquidity shifting back towards the implied 'Coalition Win' (selling Milthorpe) logic. March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, Helen Dalton's price surged from 5.85c to 19.65c. The reason appears to be speculative rumors regarding her potential re-entry or irrational capital chasing low liquidity, which conflicted with her previous fundamental stance of 'confirmed withdrawal'. March 3, 2026 - March 5, 2026, Michelle Milthorpe's price experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 56c to 16c before rebounding to 34.5c. The reason was the market oscillating between the narratives of an 'invincible Coalition stronghold' and her being the 'sole challenger consolidating the protest vote' after the by-election date was confirmed.
AI Analysis
NY-16 House Election Winner
Elections|$25.0k Vol|
time184 days 5 hrs

NY-16 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+6¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+3¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
NY-16 remains one of the safest Democratic strongholds in the nation (Cook PVI D+20). Incumbent mode...
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AI Analysis
Will Bob Menery enter the ring against Johnny Manziel?
Sports|$38.7k Vol|
time29 days 5 hrs

Will Bob Menery enter the ring against Johnny Manziel?

Top Undervalued
+21.8¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Although a boxing match between Bob Menery and Johnny Manziel is tentatively scheduled for May 16, 2...
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Rule Risk
The rules contain a significant trap: if the fight is canceled due to the opponent (Johnny Manziel) or the promoter (Full Send Boxing), the market resolves to 'Yes' even if Bob Menery never actually enters the ring. This strongly conflicts with the literal phrasing of the title.
Exotics
This is a crossover celebrity boxing match between a podcast influencer and a former pro football player. Unless someone is a specific fan of this influencer circle or entertainment boxing, the general public would rarely consider or predict such a niche novelty event.
Movers
April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped significantly from 53.95c to 42.2c. This was driven by UFC CEO Dana White publicly expressing strong doubts over the weekend about Bob Menery's willingness to show up for the fight, revealing he placed a $10,000 'No' bet on Polymarket, which triggered massive market concerns about Menery flaking.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↓ $4,300
YesNo
34.5¢
65.5¢
40¢
60¢
+5.5¢
↓ $4,500
YesNo
66¢
34¢
71¢
29¢
+5¢

Expand to view all 22 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Hedging
Silver
Gold
This market is directly anchored to Gold futures prices, offering a perfect correlation for hedging underlying Gold exposure. Significant moves in Gold typically drive correlated volatility in Silver and often show inverse correlation with the Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury Yields, providing clear macro trading utility.
Movers
April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the ↑ $5,000 option plunged from 54.5c to 37.5c before rebounding to 43c, the ↑ $4,900 option plunged from 63.5c to 53.5c, the ↑ $5,100 option plunged from 41c to 25.5c before stabilizing at 27c, and the ↓ $4,500 option surged from 57c to 72c. This was due to gold experiencing a severe drop during this period, but subsequently finding some buying interest at support levels, which slowed the downward momentum. Consequently, put options hit highs, while call options experienced a significant pullback followed by a slight recovery. April 27, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the ↓ $4,600 option surged from 71.5c to 99.95c, the ↑ $5,000 option plunged from 58.5c to 37.5c, the ↑ $4,900 option plunged from 68.5c to 53.5c, the ↑ $5,100 option plunged from 44.5c to 25.5c, and the ↑ $5,200 option plunged from 32c to 19c. This was driven by gold's continued violent decline, likely already triggering the $4,600 settlement threshold, skyrocketing the probabilities of downside targets and entirely collapsing expectations for an upside rebound. April 26, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the ↓ $4,600 option surged from 73c to 89.4c, the ↑ $5,000 option plunged from 57.5c to 38.5c, and the ↑ $5,100 option plunged from 43.5c to 30.5c. This was driven by another sharp leg down in gold prices in late April, heavily cooling market expectations for a rebound above $5,000, and virtually confirming the $4,600 downward target will be hit. April 25, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the ↓ $4,700 option surged from 83.5c to 99.95c, as gold prices likely touched or came extremely close to the $4,700 settlement threshold during this period, virtually confirming a 'Yes' resolution for this option. April 24, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the ↓ $4,700 option plunged from 93c to 82.5c, as gold rebounded from oversold conditions after its sharp previous dive, leading the market to temper its extreme pessimism about a continued severe near-term drop. April 21, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the ↑ $5,100 option plunged from 56.5c to 38.5c, the ↑ $5,000 option plunged from 71.5c to 56.5c, while the ↓ $4,700 option surged from 77.5c to 93c. This was due to a sharp recent correction in gold prices, severe exhaustion of bullish momentum, and market conviction that prices will test new recent lows. April 20, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the ↑ $5,100 option plunged from 64c to 46.5c, the ↑ $5,000 option plunged from 76c to 59.5c, and the ↑ $4,900 option plunged from 88.5c to 72.5c, while the ↓ $4,700 option surged from 75c to 89.5c. This was due to further exhaustion of gold's upside momentum and the confirmation of a downward correction trend, causing market expectations for gold to drop below $4,700 by the end of June to rise sharply, while optimism for continuing to break highs completely collapsed. April 19, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the ↑ $5,200 option plunged from 55c to 35.5c, the ↑ $5,100 option plunged from 64.5c to 47.5c, the ↓ $4,700 option surged from 73.5c to 85.5c, and the ↓ $4,500 option surged from 46.5c to 56.5c. This was due to significant pullback pressure on short-term gold prices and increased upside resistance, cooling market expectations for a breakout to high levels before the end of June. April 19, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the ↑ $5,300 option plunged from 43.5c to 33c due to weakening short-term upside momentum in gold prices, with market optimism for breaking the $5,300 level by expiration cooling significantly. April 17, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the ↑ $5,300 option surged from 19.5c to 43c, the ↑ $5,400 option surged from 15.5c to 30.5c, while the ↓ $4,600 option plunged from 76c to 62.5c, and the ↑ $5,200 option plunged from 68c to 54c. This was due to strong short-term gold trends, with market expectations of breaking higher resistance levels by the end of June significantly increasing, while concerns of falling back to lower support levels rapidly weakened. April 14, 2026 - April 17, 2026, prices for all options continued to consolidate with no fluctuations exceeding 10c (↓ $4,200 moved from 27c to 27.5c), showing stabilized short-term market sentiment. April 13, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the ↓ $4,200 option dropped from 37c to 23.5c, as short-term gold trends further stabilized, consistently weakening market fears of breaking below this support level. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, prices for all options continued to consolidate, with no fluctuations strictly exceeding 10c (↓ $4,200 dropped exactly 10c), showing stable market expectations. April 6, 2026 - April 10, 2026, prices for all options continued to trade in a narrow range with no fluctuations exceeding 10c, indicating a stable wait-and-see market period. April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the ↑ $5,500 option plunged from 36.65c to 21.05c, as gold's previous rally paused, significantly cooling market optimism for a near-term breakout above $5,500. March 30, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the ↓ $4,200 option plunged from 67c to 33.5c, the ↓ $3,800 option dropped from 23.35c to 11.65c, and the ↑ $5,500 option surged from 26.2c to 36.65c, due to a sustained and strong rebound in gold prices, significantly dissipating market fears of a sharp decline by the end of June while boosting expectations of a breakout above $5,500.

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