All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Rebecca Scriven
YesNo
Michelle Milthorpe
YesNo
Helen Dalton
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 10:23 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although market data shows a sudden surge in Helen Dalton's price to 20c, her fair value is assessed near 0 barring a new official statement reversing her previous 'not running' declaration (Source 10). Rebecca Scriven, representing a minor party (Family First), has negligible chances in a safe-seat by-election. Michelle Milthorpe remains the primary challenger, but her price of 36c is overvalued given Farrer's history as a Coalition stronghold. With the Coalition (represented by 'Other') fighting to retain the seat, and historical preference flows in 'three-cornered contests' favoring them, Milthorpe's win probability is closer to 25%, with the bulk of equity belonging to the unlisted Coalition candidate.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
This market carries extreme resolution risk (Risk Score 5).
1. **Missing Favorites**: Farrer is historically a safe Liberal seat, and both the Liberal and National Parties are confirmed to contest the by-election. However, the market options only list three specific candidates (Dalton, Scriven, Milthorpe), **completely omitting the Liberal and National Party candidates**, who are the likely favorites.
2. **Ambiguous Fallback**: The rules state the market resolves to 'Other' if voting *does not take place*, but fail to explicitly state that it resolves to 'Other' if an *unlisted candidate* wins. If a tradable 'Other' option is not present, a victory by the Liberal candidate would leave the market with no valid resolution, likely leading to a dispute or voided market. This is a classic 'missing field' trap.
Movers
March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, Helen Dalton's price surged from 5.85c to 19.65c. The reason appears to be speculative rumors regarding her potential re-entry or an irrational reading of the by-election field, which starkly contradicts her previous fundamental stance of 'confirmed withdrawal'.
March 3, 2026 - March 5, 2026, Michelle Milthorpe's price experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 56c to 16c before rebounding to 34.5c. The reason was the market oscillating between the narratives of an 'invincible Coalition stronghold' and her being the 'sole challenger consolidating the protest vote' after the by-election date was confirmed.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream political wisdom and Dalton's own statements indicate she will not run (implying 0% probability), and Farrer is traditionally a safe Coalition seat (implying 'Other' should be the favorite). However, current market pricing assigns Dalton 20% and Milthorpe 36%, implying a combined 'non-Coalition' win probability of over 56%. This severely underestimates the Coalition's structural advantage in this electorate.
