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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
$80
YesNo
$60
YesNo
$65
YesNo
$85
YesNo
$75
YesNo
$70
YesNo
$140
YesNo
$95
YesNo
$120
YesNo
$110
YesNo
$90
YesNo
$100
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 06:25 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The current price for Active Month Silver futures is in the $85-$89 range (July 2026 contract, active at end of June, is trading around $89). Despite high volatility (ATH ~$121, recent pullback to ~$85), the market pricing exhibits a severe logical fracture. The price of '$80 Yes' (44.5c) is significantly lower than '$85 Yes' (51c), violating the principle of monotonicity (lower strikes must have higher probabilities). Based on the spot price of ~$85.33 and high volatility, the ATM strike ($85) should be near 50%, while the ITM strike ($80) should be valued significantly higher, modeled at 60c. The market's extreme bearishness on $80 (44.5%) contradicts both the spot price and the pricing of the $85 strike, indicating a clear mispricing.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy '$80 Yes' (44.5c) + Buy '$85 No' (49c)
Plan Description:
The market presents a textbook 'monotonicity violation' arbitrage opportunity. Theoretically, if the price is above $85, it must be above $80. Therefore, the price of '$80 Yes' must be >= '$85 Yes'. Currently, '$80 Yes' costs only 44.5c, while '$85 Yes' is 51c (implying '$85 No' is 49c). By constructing the portfolio [Buy '$80 Yes' (44.5c) + Buy '$85 No' (49c)], the total cost is 93.5c. 1. If Settlement < $80: '$80 Yes' pays 0, '$85 No' pays 100. Net Profit: 6.5c. 2. If Settlement > $85: '$80 Yes' pays 100, '$85 No' pays 0. Net Profit: 6.5c. 3. If $80 < Settlement < $85: Both pay 100. Total Payout 200c. Net Profit: 106.5c. This is a completely Risk-free opportunity with a lucrative middle ground.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 6¢
|Annualized yield: 21.6%
Rule Risk
While the core rule relies on CME settlement prices, the definition of 'Active Month' introduces complexity. The rule specifies the Active Month is the nearest delivery-cycle month excluding the spot month. For end of June 2026, determining which contract is 'Active' is crucial. Typically, the July 2026 contract would be active, but if it passes its First Position Date (often late the prior month or early in the delivery month), it becomes non-active, rolling the active status to September. This rollover timing can be confusing for non-professional traders, presenting a distinct rule risk.
Hedging
Silver
This prediction market is directly linked to actual Silver futures prices, making it a perfect hedging tool in itself. If the implied probability in this market diverges significantly from actual futures market pricing, it creates an arbitrage opportunity (Score 3). Additionally, Silver is highly correlated with Gold, the Dollar Index (DXY), and real rates (inverse to US 10Y Yields), though these assets are less impacted by Silver's specific price moves and are more driven by shared macro drivers.
Movers
Mar 11, 2026 - Mar 12, 2026, the price of '$80 Yes' crashed from 64.5c to 44.5c, a 20c drop. This severe decline occurred amidst high volatility and caused the option to become logically inverted against its neighbor ('$85 Yes' @ 51c), likely indicating liquidity drying up or an algorithmic trading error resulting in irrational pricing.
Mar 11, 2026 - Mar 12, 2026, the price of '$100 Yes' fell from 34c to 25.5c, a drop of 8.5c, suggesting that market confidence in silver returning to triple-digit highs before the end of June is fading, with price expectations reverting towards the spot mean (around $85).
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Primarily, there is internal market divergence: the pricing of '$80 Yes' (44.5%) implies prices will be below $80, while '$85 Yes' (51%) implies prices will be above $85, a logical contradiction. Secondly, there is external divergence with the spot market: current silver spot and futures are in the $85-$89 range, and analysts generally forecast 2026 averages above $80. However, the prediction market assigns less than 50% probability to the ITM $80 strike, indicating extreme pessimistic illusion or systemic error.
