All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
>$84
YesNo
$70-$77
YesNo
$63-$70
YesNo
$56-$63
YesNo
$49-$56
YesNo
$42-$49
YesNo
<$42
YesNo
$77-$84
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.11 23:51 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The current market total price is approximately 92.6 cents, presenting a clear discount arbitrage opportunity. regarding probability distribution, the market pricing for >$84 (38.5c) includes an excessive geopolitical risk premium, while the middle price ranges ($56-$77) are overly compressed. Although recent panic may have driven prices up, given that fundamentals are anchored in the $60-$70 range and there are 110 days until settlement, mean reversion is likely. The fair value model discounts the >$84 premium and redistributes it to the undervalued middle brackets, while ensuring the sum equals 100 to reflect the risk-free arbitrage correction.
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Hedging
Crude Oil
XOM
This event is a direct derivative of crude oil prices. For investors holding energy inventory or energy stocks (like XOM), this market offers a perfect hedging tool. If crude oil settles unexpectedly in an extreme bracket (e.g., <$42 or >$84), it would have a significant impact on global inflation expectations (affecting US yields) and the energy sector.
Movers
From Mar 9, 2026 to Mar 11, 2026, the price of the >$84 option crashed from 64c to 38.5c, while the $49-$56 option fell from ~13c to 3.5c. This volatility suggests the market is correcting from a previous panic-buy or experiencing liquidity shock.
From Feb 21, 2026 to Feb 22, 2026, the price of the <$42 option surged from 10c to 38c, an anomaly likely caused by algorithm failure or liquidity dislocation driven by panic.
From Feb 9, 2026 to Feb 10, 2026, the price of the >$84 option surged from 25c to 36.5c, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparking supply disruption fears.
Divergence
There is significant divergence. The prediction market currently assigns a very high weight to >$84 (nearly 40% implied probability), suggesting an imminent major supply shock or war risk in June. However, the fundamental context indicates spot prices are anchored in the $60-$70 range. The prediction market pricing reflects extreme tail-risk hedging demand, which contradicts standard commodity supply-demand analysis models.
