Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June?
Commodities|$3.9m Vol|
time58 days 22 hrs

Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June? - AI Found +13¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 20:49
Top Undervalued
+13¢
↓ $60(Yes)
+6.5¢
↓ $65(Yes)
+1¢
↑ $150(Yes)

Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June? AI analysis: • +13¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Recently, silver prices have experienced a short-term pullback after hitting a high, causing the mar...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?
netflix|$11.9k Vol|
time2 days 5 hrs

What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?

Top Undervalued
+3.1¢
Apex(No)
+1.1¢
Swapped(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest daily streaming charts (e.g., FlixPatrol) and recent market trading dynamics, 'A...
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Rule Risk
The rules explicitly state the resolution is based on the 'Global Top 10 Movies (English only)' list, while the title omits this language restriction, potentially misleading traders betting on popular non-English films. Additionally, there is a timing risk where the market resolves to 'Other' if the website update is delayed by more than three days.
Movers
April 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026: The price of 'Apex' surged from 51c to 96c, while other options like 'Swapped' plummeted (e.g., 'Swapped' fell from 25c to 3c). This was driven by daily viewership data from streaming trackers confirming that 'Apex' maintained an absolute global lead throughout the week, eliminating any competitive suspense.
AI Analysis
Farrer By-Election Winner
Politics|$174.3k Vol|
time242 days 5 hrs

Farrer By-Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
David Farley(No)
+3¢
Michelle Milthorpe(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Farrer is traditionally an ultra-safe seat for the Liberal/National Coalition. As the by-election ap...
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Rule Risk
This market carries extreme resolution risk (Risk Score 5). 1. **Missing Favorites**: Farrer is historically a safe Liberal seat, and both the Liberal and National Parties are confirmed to contest the by-election. However, the market options only list three specific candidates (Dalton, Scriven, Milthorpe), **completely omitting the Liberal and National Party candidates**, who are the likely favorites. 2. **Ambiguous Fallback**: The rules state the market resolves to 'Other' if voting *does not take place*, but fail to explicitly state that it resolves to 'Other' if an *unlisted candidate* wins. If a tradable 'Other' option is not present, a victory by the Liberal candidate would leave the market with no valid resolution, likely leading to a dispute or voided market. This is a classic 'missing field' trap.
Movers
April 22, 2026 - April 26, 2026, David Farley's price rose steadily from 47.5c to 66c, while Michelle Milthorpe's price dropped from 49.5c to 34c. The reason is that as the by-election draws closer, the Coalition's base advantage in the ultra-safe seat becomes more apparent, prompting the market to squeeze out the speculative premium on the independent candidate and return to fundamentals. April 16, 2026 - April 19, 2026, David Farley's price surged from 18.5c to 42.5c, while Raissa Butkowski's price crashed from 21c to 3.6c. The reason is that as the by-election approaches and party nominations clear up, the market recognized Farley as the core major party candidate (likely the Coalition), absorbing scattered vote expectations while competitors were sold off. April 8, 2026 - April 11, 2026, Michelle Milthorpe's price rose from 39c to 58c. The reason is that as the by-election date approaches, market capital is further betting on her chances as the only competitive independent candidate, driving up a speculative premium. April 1, 2026 - April 4, 2026, Michelle Milthorpe's price rose from 35c to 46c. The reason is the formal announcement of the by-election date (May 9) and the issuing of writs, which solidified market expectations of her campaign momentum as the primary independent challenger. Concurrently, Rebecca Scriven's price wildly fluctuated from 1.8c to 17.3c and back to 8c, driven by speculative buying in a low-liquidity market following news that her Family First party would withhold preference votes from One Nation. March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Michelle Milthorpe's price dropped from 34c to 21.5c before a minor rebound. The reason is likely a market reality check regarding an independent's actual chances in the traditional Coalition stronghold of Farrer, with liquidity shifting back towards the implied 'Coalition Win' (selling Milthorpe) logic. March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, Helen Dalton's price surged from 5.85c to 19.65c. The reason appears to be speculative rumors regarding her potential re-entry or irrational capital chasing low liquidity, which conflicted with her previous fundamental stance of 'confirmed withdrawal'. March 3, 2026 - March 5, 2026, Michelle Milthorpe's price experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 56c to 16c before rebounding to 34.5c. The reason was the market oscillating between the narratives of an 'invincible Coalition stronghold' and her being the 'sole challenger consolidating the protest vote' after the by-election date was confirmed.
AI Analysis
NY-16 House Election Winner
Elections|$25.0k Vol|
time184 days 5 hrs

NY-16 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+6¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+3¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
NY-16 remains one of the safest Democratic strongholds in the nation (Cook PVI D+20). Incumbent mode...
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AI Analysis
Will Bob Menery enter the ring against Johnny Manziel?
Sports|$38.7k Vol|
time29 days 5 hrs

Will Bob Menery enter the ring against Johnny Manziel?

Top Undervalued
+21.8¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Although a boxing match between Bob Menery and Johnny Manziel is tentatively scheduled for May 16, 2...
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Rule Risk
The rules contain a significant trap: if the fight is canceled due to the opponent (Johnny Manziel) or the promoter (Full Send Boxing), the market resolves to 'Yes' even if Bob Menery never actually enters the ring. This strongly conflicts with the literal phrasing of the title.
Exotics
This is a crossover celebrity boxing match between a podcast influencer and a former pro football player. Unless someone is a specific fan of this influencer circle or entertainment boxing, the general public would rarely consider or predict such a niche novelty event.
Movers
April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped significantly from 53.95c to 42.2c. This was driven by UFC CEO Dana White publicly expressing strong doubts over the weekend about Bob Menery's willingness to show up for the fight, revealing he placed a $10,000 'No' bet on Polymarket, which triggered massive market concerns about Menery flaking.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↓ $60
YesNo
20¢
80¢
33¢
67¢
+13¢
↓ $65
YesNo
47.5¢
52.5¢
54¢
46¢
+6.5¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Hedging
Gold
DXY
US 10Y Yield
Silver has an extremely high positive correlation with Gold. If Silver triggers extreme strike prices (e.g., $120 or $35), it typically implies a major macro inflationary or deflationary shock, causing Gold prices to move significantly. Additionally, Silver prices are strongly inversely driven by the US Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury Yields. This market serves as a direct hedge for commodity volatility.
Movers
2026-04-30 to 2026-05-01, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 61c to 54c, as silver stabilized somewhat after a short sharp drop, reducing immediate downside probability. 2026-04-27 to 2026-04-30, the price of ↓ $65 rose from 47.5c to 61c, as silver prices faced some downward pressure in the short term, and market expectations of touching downside support levels increased. 2026-04-25 to 2026-04-26, the price of ↓ $55 dropped from 24.5c to 14.5c, as silver prices showed some resilience after short-term consolidation, and the market quickly priced out the expectation of breaking below this support level in the near term. 2026-04-22 to 2026-04-23, the price of ↓ $65 plunged from 60c to 43.5c, as silver prices experienced a corrective rebound after a sharp short-term decline, rapidly cooling market expectations of testing this support level in the near term. 2026-04-20 to 2026-04-22, the price of ↓ $65 surged from 40.5c to 60c, as silver prices faced significant short-term downward pressure, accelerating bearish momentum and drastically raising market expectations of breaking this support level in the near term. 2026-04-17 to 2026-04-18, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 45.5c to 33c, and ↓ $60 dropped from 32.5c to 21c. The reason is that silver prices showed some resilience after short-term consolidation, and the market quickly priced out the expectation of breaking below key support levels in the near term. 2026-04-18 to 2026-04-19, the price of ↓ $65 rebounded from 33c to 40c, as silver prices faced some downward pressure in the short term, and market expectations of touching downside support levels increased. 2026-04-16 to 2026-04-18, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 42.5c to 33c, and ↓ $60 dropped from 29.5c to 21c, as silver prices stabilized following a short-term correction, prompting the market to further price out the likelihood of continued deep dives in the near term. 2026-04-13 to 2026-04-16, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 56.5c to 42.5c, and ↓ $60 dropped from 42c to 29.5c, as silver prices hit a strong support level following a short-term correction and experienced a significant rebound, prompting the market to rapidly price out the likelihood of continued deep dives in the near term. 2026-04-13 to 2026-04-15, the price of ↓ $65 plunged from 56.5c to 38.5c, and ↓ $60 plunged from 42c to 27.5c, as silver prices hit a strong support level following a short-term correction and experienced a significant rebound, prompting the market to rapidly price out the likelihood of continued deep dives in the near term. 2026-04-11 to 2026-04-13, the price of ↓ $65 rose from 43.5c to 56.5c, and ↓ $55 rose from 16.5c to 26.5c, as silver prices faced strong renewed pullback pressure after the previous rebound, causing market expectations of touching these downside support levels in the short term to heat up rapidly. 2026-04-09 to 2026-04-11, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 61c to 43.5c, and ↓ $55 dropped from 31c to 16.5c. The reason is that silver prices rebounded strongly after bottoming out, significantly reducing the probability of hitting deep downside targets in the short term. 2026-04-06 to 2026-04-08, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 62.5c to 51c. The reason is that silver prices showed a phased stabilization and rebound after hitting the bottom, and the market further downgraded the risk probability of continued deep declines in the short term. 2026-03-30 to 2026-04-02, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 77.5c to 62c, ↓ $60 dropped from 58.5c to 36.5c, and ↓ $55 dropped from 41.5c to 23c. The reason is that silver prices continued their strong rebound, and the market further drastically priced out extreme downside risks, bursting the put tail pricing bubble. 2026-03-29 to 2026-04-01, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 74c to 62.5c, and ↓ $60 dropped from 58.5c to 43c, as silver prices continued to rebound and stabilize, further pricing out extreme downside risks. 2026-03-24 to 2026-03-27, the price of ↓ $65 dropped from 81c to 74.5c, and ↓ $60 dropped from 61c to 52.5c, as silver prices continued to stabilize and the market further priced out extreme downside risks in the near term. 2026-03-23 to 2026-03-25, the price of ↓ $65 crashed from 85c to 65.5c, and ↓ $60 crashed from 65.5c to 49.5c. The reason is that market panic subsided further, and expectations of silver stabilizing and rebounding in the short term strengthened, significantly reducing the probability of breaking down below recent lows. 2026-03-21 to 2026-03-24, the price of ↓ $45 crashed from 42c to 20c, as market panic subsided after the weekend. Traders reassessed the extreme probability of silver 'halving' to $45 in the short term, leading to a burst in the premium of deep OTM put options. 2026-03-23 to 2026-03-24, the price of ↑ $120 rebounded from 15c to 22.5c, driven by the US delaying military strikes on Iran. This eased some liquidity pressure, prompting bets on a potential retaliatory bounce in silver prices after the oversold conditions.

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