CO-05 House Election Winner
Politics|$4,056 Vol|
time183 days 21 hrs

CO-05 House Election Winner - AI Found +14¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.29 06:07
Top Undervalued
+14¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+13.5¢
Democratic Party(No)

CO-05 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +14¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The fundamentals of Colorado's 5th congressional district (CO-05) remain solidly favorable to Republ...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Champions League Top Scorer
Soccer|$1.7m Vol|
time26 days 21 hrs

Champions League Top Scorer

Top Undervalued
+2¢
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia(No)
+0.5¢
Harry Kane(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The Champions League Top Scorer market remains a strict two-horse race between Kylian Mbappe and Har...
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AI Analysis
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
Politics|$1.1m Vol|
time422 days 21 hrs

Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?

Top Undervalued
+0.7¢
Comcast(Yes)
+0.5¢
None by June 30, 2027(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market pricing indicates the probability of Paramount successfully acquiring WBD's core asse...
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Rule Risk
There is significant rule risk. First, the rules explicitly mention a 'currently announced Netflix agreement' which does not qualify (this appears to be based on specific hypothetical or erroneous context, as no such finalized deal exists in reality), potentially misleading traders. Second, defining 'acquiring control' versus strategic partnerships or partial asset purchases can be ambiguous, especially with complex spin-offs or joint ventures. The exclusion of non-finalized announcements adds dispute risk regarding the definition of 'finalized'.
Hedging
CMCSA
NFLX
PARA
WBD
This event represents a major M&A transaction with direct and drastic impacts on the stock prices of the involved public companies. If WBD is acquired, its stock would typically see a massive premium volatility (Score 5). The acquirer's stock (e.g., Netflix or Comcast) would also experience significant movement due to capital pressure or strategic synergies. Additionally, Paramount (PARA), as a peer potential acquisition target, would be affected by industry consolidation sentiment. This is a highly significant event for hedging.
AI Analysis
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
World|$1.2m Vol|
time149 days 21 hrs

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+2.8¢
United Russia (ER)(Yes)
Arbitrage Opportunity
5¢
Arbitrage
12.4%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes shares of United Russia (ER) Plan Description: Buying Yes for United Russia at 95.15 cents will almost certainly yield 100 cents at resolution, loc...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
Under Russia's current political framework, a victory for United Russia is structurally practically ...
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Hedging
RSX
Given the tight grip on power by Putin and United Russia, the status quo is widely expected to persist, meaning the election outcome is likely already priced in with little potential for market disruption. However, in the extremely low-probability 'black swan' scenario of an opposition upset or significant unrest, there would be a major shock to Russia-linked assets (like the RSX ETF, if tradable) and potential spillover into Crude Oil and Gold via geopolitical risk premiums. Under normal expectations, the impact on global broad assets is negligible.
AI Analysis
Berlin State Election Winner
Politics|$2.6m Vol|
time139 days 21 hrs

Berlin State Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+2.5¢
CDU(No)
+1¢
Linke(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market pricing indicates a highly fragmented competitive landscape for the Berlin State Elec...
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AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Republican Party
YesNo
64¢
36¢
78¢
22¢
+14¢
Democratic Party
YesNo
35.5¢
64.5¢
22¢
78¢
+13.5¢
⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Divergence
The prediction market implies a ~36% probability of a Democratic victory, which diverges significantly from mainstream analytical consensus (like the Cook Political Report) that rates the district as Likely/Solid Republican (R+5). The market appears to overweigh short-term noise or partisan internal polling while discounting the district's structural red lean.

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