All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Park Chan-dae
YesNo
Yoo Jeong-bok
YesNo
Yoo Dong-soo
YesNo
Kim Kyo-heung
YesNo
Chung Il-young
YesNo
Bae June-young
YesNo
Park Nam-choon
YesNo
Lee Hak-jae
YesNo
Yoon Sang-hyun
YesNo
AI Insights:
8 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 18, 2026, with only 76 days remaining until the Incheon Mayoral Election, Democratic Party (DP) candidate Park Chan-dae's dominance has further solidified. As the sole nominee of the opposition party—which holds a commanding polling lead following the 'martial law incident'—his probability of victory is exceedingly high. Incumbent Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok is severely handicapped by the ruling party's (PPP) historically low approval ratings (~17%), making an upset virtually impossible. While the market price is 94.5c, considering that such massive polling gaps in South Korea's single-member district system typically result in landslides, the fair value is estimated around 97c. The current 94.5c is a reasonable but slightly conservative valuation.
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