The rules rely on a specific data tracker (xtracker) and have specific conditions for replies and deleted posts (requiring ~5 minutes of uptime). These technical nuances are hard to verify manually and could lead to resolution disputes if the tracker glitches.

Predicting the exact number of tweets by a specific public figure in a given week is highly unusual and random. Outside of hardcore prediction market traders, the general public rarely pays attention to such trivial statistics.

From April 13 to April 14, 2026, the price of the '20-39' option climbed from 30c to 61.5c, as the steady posting pace over time significantly increased the certainty of the final total landing in this range. From April 11 to April 12, 2026, due to short-term changes in CZ's posting frequency and low market liquidity, several core options experienced wild swings: the '60-79' option plummeted from 41.6c to 9.5c before rebounding to 18.7c; the '80-99' option crashed from 34.9c to 0.3c, quickly surged back to 24.5c, and then fell back to around 6c. This was primarily driven by new data inputs shifting the projected total, triggering capital reallocation. From April 10 to April 11, 2026, the YES prices of multiple options (e.g., 20-39, 40-59, 60-79, 80-99) experienced severe fluctuations of over 10 cents, with some options temporarily surging above 40c before quickly pulling back. This was due to poor market liquidity where small buy orders significantly pushed up prices, creating a massive premium in implied probabilities, which later reverted to reasonable ranges as the market self-corrected and arbitrageurs stepped in. From April 8 to April 10, 2026, the price of the '<20' option plummeted from 46.5c to 10.5c, as CZ's posting frequency early in the period increased, drastically reducing the likelihood of the total being under 20.