Market resolution relies primarily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) rather than X's native display. The main risks are that the tracker might miss posts due to API limits, misclassify replies that appear on the main feed, and introduce uncertainty regarding the ~5-minute capture window for deleted posts.

Predicting the exact number of tweets from a specific crypto leader in a given week is relatively niche and trivial. While such social media behavior markets are common in prediction markets, it is not a question the general public naturally contemplates.

March 31, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the price of the <20 option surged from 49.5c to 89.5c, the 20-39 option plunged from 50c to 7.5c, and the 100-119 option plummeted from 29.55c to 0.2c. This was caused by the passage of time confirming CZ's persistently low posting volume, forcing market expectations to converge with reality. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the <20 option surged from 60.5c to 85.5c, the 20-39 option plunged from 42.5c to 15c, and the 100-119 option plummeted from 27.45c to 1.65c. This was caused by the gradual fading of earlier abnormal speculative buys in an extremely low-liquidity market, leading to a price correction towards historical norms (CZ's very low posting frequency). March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the <20 option plummeted from 69.5c to 49.5c, the 20-39 option surged from 27.5c to 50c, and the 100-119 option spiked from 4.35c to 29.55c. These drastic fluctuations were primarily due to the market's extreme lack of liquidity and low trading volume, making it highly susceptible to sudden spikes or drops from single small trades or limit orders.