The rules have complex definitions for 'replies', where certain main feed replies are counted by the tracker. Deleted posts are also counted if captured in time. This makes manual verification unreliable, as the outcome heavily depends on the technical nuances of the designated tracker, creating significant resolution risk.

Betting on the exact range of tweets an individual will post within a specific 48-hour window is highly novel and obscure. It is a niche topic tailored for prediction market enthusiasts rather than something mainstream audiences would ever consider.

From May 9, 2026, 18:08:17 to May 10, 2026, 02:48:17, the '<40' option fluctuated from 39.5c to 32.5c (currently 36.5c), as Musk's tweeting rhythm became clearer with time, prompting the market to fine-tune probabilities between <40 and 40-64. From May 7, 2026, 16:23:19 to May 9, 2026, 18:08:17, the '<40' option surged from 7.5c to 39.5c, because the tracking period began with very low initial posting frequency, causing investors to aggressively price in a slow weekend. From May 7, 2026, 16:23:19 to May 8, 2026, 17:13:19, the '40-64' option increased from 42.5c to 61.5c, as consensus formed around this standard activity range heading into the weekend. From May 7, 2026, 16:23:19 to May 9, 2026, 15:58:19, the '65-89' option plunged from 34c to 8.5c, reflecting a strong shift away from expectations of higher-end posting activity.

Predicting the daily temperature of a specific city is a niche but existing category in prediction markets. While less common than elections or sports, it is not an extremely absurd question that no one thinks about, holding some entertainment and everyday relevance.

May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of 80-81°F surged from 13c to 29.5c, 76-77°F rose from 14.5c to 26.5c, while 84-85°F plummeted from 21.5c to 3.5c. This was caused by meteorological forecast models narrowing down and solidifying the expected nighttime low temperatures as the deadline approaches, eliminating the possibility of anomalous highs. Previously: No violent price swings were observed, with prices mainly fluctuating due to minor weather forecast adjustments and low market liquidity.

May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, Malta's price dropped sharply from 87c to 75.5c before slightly recovering to 79.5c, due to underwhelming rehearsal feedback and staging details missing market expectations, triggering a short-term sell-off. May 8, 2026 - May 10, 2026, Cyprus's price plunged from 85.5c to 70.5c, likely due to poor rehearsal feedback or negative reviews from the press center regarding their live performance, triggering a market sell-off. May 7, 2026 - May 9, 2026, Norway's price dropped from 72c to 58c, and recovered to 67c by May 9, likely due to underwhelming dress rehearsal performances or negative feedback from the press center, raising doubts about their qualification chances, before sentiment partially recovered. April 22, 2026 - April 23, 2026, Bulgaria's price plunged from 77.5c to 66.5c, due to leaked internal rehearsal details indicating underwhelming staging effects, which shook market confidence in their qualification. March 21, 2026 - March 26, 2026, Romania's price surged from 56.5c to 72c, driven by leaked rehearsal footage or promotional activities that significantly improved market expectations for their live performance, boosting confidence. March 7, 2026 - March 10, 2026, Australia's price rose from 79c to 88.5c, driven by strengthening market confidence following the confirmation of Delta Goodrem as the entrant. February 9, 2026 - February 11, 2026, Cyprus's price surged from 57c to 73c, indicating the release of a highly competitive song entry or the confirmation of a popular artist, leading to a sharp increase in market confidence.