Ethereum above ___ on April 17? - AI Found +21.9¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$11.6k Vol|

6 days 8 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on April 17? - AI Found +21.9¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+21.9¢

2,300(Yes)

+19¢

2,200(Yes)

+18.1¢

2,400(Yes)

Ethereum above ___ on April 17? AI analysis: • +21.9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Culture|$116.1k Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets April 11 - April 13, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

This market measures Elon Musk's main feed posts, quotes, and reposts (excluding standard replies) o...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The rules have specific nuances regarding 'replies' (main feed replies count, standard ones do not) and rely heavily on a custom third-party tracker (Xtracker). Additionally, deleted posts count if captured within a 5-minute window. This can cause the final tally to deviate from what users visibly observe on X, posing a moderate resolution risk.

This is a classic exotic/novelty market. Betting on the exact number of tweets a public figure makes over a specific 48-hour window is highly niche; ordinary people would never ponder or calculate this specific metric otherwise.

Calculate Elon Musk's average daily post and repost volume over the past 30 days to estimate his baseline tweet count for April 11-13, 2026.

Tech|$28.5k Vol|

𝕏 Money launched by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Since April 10 has already passed without the launch of X Money, the fair value for the April 10 opt...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The rules clearly define 'launch' (open beta, rolling waitlist, etc.) and exclude closed beta. However, ambiguity may exist regarding the specific form of 'X Money' (e.g., crypto integration, fiat wallet, or simple P2P?). Additionally, the specificity of the cited tweet creates risk if the tweet is deleted or reinterpreted (e.g., as a joke). The critical risk lies in defining 'early public access'; counting a 'rolling waitlist' as a launch is contentious as it's not truly 'open' access.

The launch of X Money is highly likely to be linked with cryptocurrency payment integration. Specifically, Dogecoin (DOGE) would experience significant volatility (Score 4) due to Elon Musk's long-standing support and the market's expectation of its inclusion. If X Money supports Bitcoin or acts as a fiat on-ramp, BTC might see minor impact. Since X is a private company, there is no direct equity hedge; the correlation is primarily with crypto assets.

From April 7, 2026 to April 10, 2026, the Yes price for April 30 plummeted from 53c to 23.5c. The reason is that as early April passed without any official build-up or beta leaks, market expectations for a launch within April significantly cooled down. From March 23, 2026 to March 26, 2026, the Yes price for April 3 dropped from 17.05c to 8.85c. The reason is that as time passed without any official build-up, market expectations for a very early launch (before April 3) significantly cooled down.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'X Money launch' event on Polymarket, specifically analyzing the liquidity spreads between the April 3, April 10, and April 30 options. Combine this with community discussions regarding whether an 'open rolling waitlist' meets the 'publicly accessible' definition to update the assessment of fair value and potential resolution dispute risks.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'X Money launch' event on Polymarket, specifically analyzing the liquidity spreads between the April 3, April 10, and April 30 options. Combine this with community discussions regarding whether an 'open rolling waitlist' meets the 'publicly accessible' definition to update the assessment of fair value and potential resolution dispute risks.

Weather|$55.4k Vol|

Highest temperature in Chicago on April 12?

Top Undervalued

44°F or higher(No)

25°F or below(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest meteorological forecasts, the high temperature at Chicago O'Hare Internation...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

How exactly does Wunderground record and finalize the all-day highest temperature for Chicago O'Hare (KORD), and are there any risks of data delays for the April 12 resolution?

Weather|$19.6k Vol|

Highest temperature in Miami on April 12?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With just 1 day left until resolution, short-term weather forecasts are highly accurate. Multiple ma...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

While people check the weather daily, betting on the exact temperature range of a specific city on a given day is a niche and novelty topic primarily appealing to prediction market enthusiasts rather than the general public.

Between April 10 and April 11, 2026, the price of the 80-81°F option rose from 38c to 50c, as weather models converged, further confirming that the maximum temperature would stabilize in the low 80s, ruling out more extreme cold or warm weather. Between April 9 and April 10, 2026, the price of the 76-77°F option plummeted from 15c to 3.5c, because as the prediction date approached, meteorological guidance ruled out the possibility of a significant temperature drop. On April 9, 2026, the price of the 82-83°F option surged from 6c to 22.5c (reaching up to 28c later). This was driven by updated weather models showing the cold front system moving less southward than expected, while subtropical high pressure strengthened, leading to a significant upward revision in short-term temperature forecasts. Between April 8 and April 9, 2026, the price of the 74-75°F option plummeted from 10c to 1.45c, as the probability of abnormally low temperatures was effectively ruled out by the latest meteorological guidance as the date approached.

There is a mild divergence. Mainstream weather websites (such as AccuWeather and Local10) explicitly forecast a high temperature of 82°F, which implies that the 82-83°F range should be the overwhelming favorite. However, Polymarket traders have pushed the 80-81°F option to a 50% probability, leaving 82-83°F at only 16.5%. This is likely because traders are accounting for historical biases in different models or relying on specific microclimate data from the airport monitoring station (KMIA), which often records slightly lower temperatures than surrounding areas.

How exactly does the Wunderground resolution work for the Miami Intl Airport Station, and how would delayed updates or post-finalization data revisions for April 12 affect the outcome?

Weather|$15.0k Vol|

Highest temperature in Atlanta on April 12?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature in Atlanta on April 12, 2026, is expecte...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

While forecasting a specific city's daily high temperature is a standard 'weather market' in prediction platforms, it is not something the general public actively ponders unless there is an extreme heatwave. It remains a niche and geeky topic.

April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 84-85°F option surged from 23c to 44c. This was driven by weather forecast models consistently locking the expected high temperature around 84°F as the resolution date approached, prompting capital inflows into this range. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of the 82-83°F option surged from 10c to 27c, and the 86-87°F option surged from 11c to 22c. This was due to market participants adjusting expectations upward based on potential warmer weather model runs.

How exactly is the highest temperature at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson Airport on April 12 measured and resolved according to Wunderground data?

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

2,300

YesNo

37¢

67¢

58.9¢

41.1¢

+21.9¢

0¢

2,200

YesNo

60¢

44¢

79¢

21¢

+19¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Positive Factor 1: Last Week High Breakout Status, 1.0000, Impact-Intense, Factor description Structural breakout: whether the price breaks above last week highest price (0/1) Positive Factor 2: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0870, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 3: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0600, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 4: Weekly Price Change, 0.0620, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 5: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0600, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 6: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0090, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Culture|$116.1k Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets April 11 - April 13, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

This market measures Elon Musk's main feed posts, quotes, and reposts (excluding standard replies) o...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The rules have specific nuances regarding 'replies' (main feed replies count, standard ones do not) and rely heavily on a custom third-party tracker (Xtracker). Additionally, deleted posts count if captured within a 5-minute window. This can cause the final tally to deviate from what users visibly observe on X, posing a moderate resolution risk.

This is a classic exotic/novelty market. Betting on the exact number of tweets a public figure makes over a specific 48-hour window is highly niche; ordinary people would never ponder or calculate this specific metric otherwise.

Calculate Elon Musk's average daily post and repost volume over the past 30 days to estimate his baseline tweet count for April 11-13, 2026.

Tech|$28.5k Vol|

𝕏 Money launched by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Since April 10 has already passed without the launch of X Money, the fair value for the April 10 opt...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The rules clearly define 'launch' (open beta, rolling waitlist, etc.) and exclude closed beta. However, ambiguity may exist regarding the specific form of 'X Money' (e.g., crypto integration, fiat wallet, or simple P2P?). Additionally, the specificity of the cited tweet creates risk if the tweet is deleted or reinterpreted (e.g., as a joke). The critical risk lies in defining 'early public access'; counting a 'rolling waitlist' as a launch is contentious as it's not truly 'open' access.

The launch of X Money is highly likely to be linked with cryptocurrency payment integration. Specifically, Dogecoin (DOGE) would experience significant volatility (Score 4) due to Elon Musk's long-standing support and the market's expectation of its inclusion. If X Money supports Bitcoin or acts as a fiat on-ramp, BTC might see minor impact. Since X is a private company, there is no direct equity hedge; the correlation is primarily with crypto assets.

From April 7, 2026 to April 10, 2026, the Yes price for April 30 plummeted from 53c to 23.5c. The reason is that as early April passed without any official build-up or beta leaks, market expectations for a launch within April significantly cooled down. From March 23, 2026 to March 26, 2026, the Yes price for April 3 dropped from 17.05c to 8.85c. The reason is that as time passed without any official build-up, market expectations for a very early launch (before April 3) significantly cooled down.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'X Money launch' event on Polymarket, specifically analyzing the liquidity spreads between the April 3, April 10, and April 30 options. Combine this with community discussions regarding whether an 'open rolling waitlist' meets the 'publicly accessible' definition to update the assessment of fair value and potential resolution dispute risks.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'X Money launch' event on Polymarket, specifically analyzing the liquidity spreads between the April 3, April 10, and April 30 options. Combine this with community discussions regarding whether an 'open rolling waitlist' meets the 'publicly accessible' definition to update the assessment of fair value and potential resolution dispute risks.

Weather|$55.4k Vol|

Highest temperature in Chicago on April 12?

Top Undervalued

44°F or higher(No)

25°F or below(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest meteorological forecasts, the high temperature at Chicago O'Hare Internation...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

How exactly does Wunderground record and finalize the all-day highest temperature for Chicago O'Hare (KORD), and are there any risks of data delays for the April 12 resolution?

Weather|$19.6k Vol|

Highest temperature in Miami on April 12?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With just 1 day left until resolution, short-term weather forecasts are highly accurate. Multiple ma...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

While people check the weather daily, betting on the exact temperature range of a specific city on a given day is a niche and novelty topic primarily appealing to prediction market enthusiasts rather than the general public.

Between April 10 and April 11, 2026, the price of the 80-81°F option rose from 38c to 50c, as weather models converged, further confirming that the maximum temperature would stabilize in the low 80s, ruling out more extreme cold or warm weather. Between April 9 and April 10, 2026, the price of the 76-77°F option plummeted from 15c to 3.5c, because as the prediction date approached, meteorological guidance ruled out the possibility of a significant temperature drop. On April 9, 2026, the price of the 82-83°F option surged from 6c to 22.5c (reaching up to 28c later). This was driven by updated weather models showing the cold front system moving less southward than expected, while subtropical high pressure strengthened, leading to a significant upward revision in short-term temperature forecasts. Between April 8 and April 9, 2026, the price of the 74-75°F option plummeted from 10c to 1.45c, as the probability of abnormally low temperatures was effectively ruled out by the latest meteorological guidance as the date approached.

There is a mild divergence. Mainstream weather websites (such as AccuWeather and Local10) explicitly forecast a high temperature of 82°F, which implies that the 82-83°F range should be the overwhelming favorite. However, Polymarket traders have pushed the 80-81°F option to a 50% probability, leaving 82-83°F at only 16.5%. This is likely because traders are accounting for historical biases in different models or relying on specific microclimate data from the airport monitoring station (KMIA), which often records slightly lower temperatures than surrounding areas.

How exactly does the Wunderground resolution work for the Miami Intl Airport Station, and how would delayed updates or post-finalization data revisions for April 12 affect the outcome?

Weather|$15.0k Vol|

Highest temperature in Atlanta on April 12?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature in Atlanta on April 12, 2026, is expecte...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

While forecasting a specific city's daily high temperature is a standard 'weather market' in prediction platforms, it is not something the general public actively ponders unless there is an extreme heatwave. It remains a niche and geeky topic.

April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 84-85°F option surged from 23c to 44c. This was driven by weather forecast models consistently locking the expected high temperature around 84°F as the resolution date approached, prompting capital inflows into this range. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of the 82-83°F option surged from 10c to 27c, and the 86-87°F option surged from 11c to 22c. This was due to market participants adjusting expectations upward based on potential warmer weather model runs.

How exactly is the highest temperature at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson Airport on April 12 measured and resolved according to Wunderground data?

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