Ethereum above ___ on April 3? - AI Found +25.6¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$13.7k Vol|

5 days 21 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on April 3? - AI Found +25.6¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+25.6¢

1,900(No)

+23.4¢

1,800(No)

+19.4¢

2,000(No)

Ethereum above ___ on April 3? AI analysis: • +25.6¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$84.1k Vol|

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest market data, the distribution is further concentrating towards the center, with ...

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This is a typical niche data market. While not extremely bizarre (given the high profile of Trump's social media activity), it involves betting on granular personal behavioral data rather than traditional macro events or financial outcomes, warranting a medium novelty score.

[Decision & Action] Momentum & Time Decay Judgment: Based on the percentage of time elapsed (e.g., 3 days into the period) versus the current actual post count, calculate the required daily posting rate needed to hit the high brackets (e.g., 160+). If the current rate is significantly below this requirement, determine if you should immediately "short" or sell the high-bracket options to capitalize on time decay.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the current odds distribution (e.g., are extreme options like 200+ or <20 overpriced?), check user discussions regarding Trump's recent Truth Social activity, and combine this with the current "xtracker" count to update the fair value projection for the final post total and potential arbitrage opportunities.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Historical Frequency Statistics & Specific Period Catalysts: Using xtracker or Truth Social historical data, calculate Trump's weekly average post count (including reposts) over the past month. Simultaneously, search for major political rallies, court dates, or holidays (e.g., Easter) between March 27 and April 3, 2026, to assess how these schedules specifically affect his posting frequency (e.g., rallies often trigger a burst of live-coverage style posts).

[Decision & Action] Momentum & Time Decay Judgment: Based on the percentage of time elapsed (e.g., 3 days into the period) versus the current actual post count, calculate the required daily posting rate needed to hit the high brackets (e.g., 160+). If the current rate is significantly below this requirement, determine if you should immediately "short" or sell the high-bracket options to capitalize on time decay.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the current odds distribution (e.g., are extreme options like 200+ or <20 overpriced?), check user discussions regarding Trump's recent Truth Social activity, and combine this with the current "xtracker" count to update the fair value projection for the final post total and potential arbitrage opportunities.

Politics|$15.1k Vol|

NYC Mayor # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on historical posting patterns of the official @NYCMayor account, it is primarily used for adm...

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The core risk lies in the definition of 'Replies' versus X's (formerly Twitter) display logic. While rules state 'Replies will NOT count,' X's Main Feed logic often categorizes subsequent tweets in a thread as replies, hiding them from the main profile tab unless self-retweeted. For a politician like Mamdani who likely posts long 'policy explainer threads,' a 20-tweet thread might only register as 1 count (the first tweet) on the tracker. Additionally, tracker API latency or missed captures remain a technical risk.

March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026: The price of the '20-39' option surged from 24c to 52c, the '<20' option plummeted from 51.5c to 20c, and all high-frequency buckets (100+) crashed from ~40c to under 10c. The reason is market normalization. The initial state featured artificial limit orders where almost all options were priced around 40c (a mathematical impossibility). As the tracking period neared and began, organic volume entered and violently corrected the pricing to reflect realistic official account post volumes (20-40 per week). March 24, 2026 - March 24, 2026: Due to the lack of prior history and the artificial uniformity of prices (all Yes ~0.40), the market appeared to be in a static, un-normalized initial state likely set by limit orders, with no organic price movements yet.

Retrieve the latest data for the "NYC Mayor Post Count" event, focusing on the order book spread and depth given the extremely low volume ($12.6) to assess liquidity risk, and analyze user discussions to determine if the market's expectation of Zohran Mamdani's posting habits is reasonable.

Politics|$11.5k Vol|

Ted Cruz # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on historical data, Ted Cruz is one of the most active X (formerly Twitter) users in the Senat...

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While the rules clarify post types (includes reposts/quotes, excludes replies), reliance on a third-party tracker (Polymarket xtracker) introduces technical risk. The clause regarding 'replies recorded on the main feed' is ambiguous and depends on X's opaque algorithms. Furthermore, whether deleted posts are captured depends on the tracker's scrape frequency, adding uncertainty.

This is a highly unconventional niche market. Most people do not typically ponder or forecast the exact tweet volume of a specific senator over a random week. It is a classic 'data trivia' market appealing to speculators interested in political social media habits.

Between March 24, 2026 and March 27, 2026, the Yes prices of '40-59', '60-79', '80-99', '100-119', '120-139', '140-159', '160-179', '180-199', and '200+' all crashed from ~40c to varying degrees. The reason is that after market initialization, liquidity began to flow in, and prices started to revert to a more reasonable probability distribution, breaking the initial stasis.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth given the low volume ($310) to assess slippage risk, and check the 'X Tracker' link to verify if the counter is capturing Ted Cruz's main feed posts and reposts in real-time without errors.

Culture|$8.1m Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Initial posting frequency data from the first day of the market indicates Elon Musk's daily average ...

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This is a classic Novelty market. Predicting the exact number of posts by a public figure over a future week falls under entertainment or behavioral psychology, lacking intrinsic economic logic, and is not a metric tracked by most standard market participants.

Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Elon Musk # tweets March 27 - April 3', and given the extremely low volume of $115, analyze the bid-ask spread and depth to determine if the current odds reflect genuine market sentiment or simply pricing inefficiencies due to illiquidity.

Politics|$45.2k Vol|

White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest price trends, the 160-179 bucket is currently priced the highest (42c), indicati...

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Betting on the volume of tweets from a government account over a specific week is an unconventional derivative market. While such markets have become more common since Elon Musk's takeover of X, it remains a niche market based on highly specific, unstructured behavior that the general public rarely quantifies naturally.

March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of '160-179' steadily rose from 39c to 42c, indicating slightly increased market confidence in this range. March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of '180-199' dropped from 31.5c to 23c, likely due to recent daily posting averages not meeting higher expectations. March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of '200+' dropped from 17c to 10.5c, further confirming the cooling of expectations for extremely high-frequency posting. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, prices across all options reverted from an anomalous uniform 40.5c to a normal market distribution, correcting the previous flat pricing caused by data or liquidity gaps.

[Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket event page, and given the extremely low volume (~$30), analyze the Order Book depth and bid-ask spreads, then combine this with historical posting data to assess the fair value of median options like '60-79' or '80-99'.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

1,900

YesNo

76.5¢

23.5¢

50.9¢

49.1¢

0¢

+25.6¢

1,800

YesNo

90.5¢

9.5¢

67.1¢

32.9¢

0¢

+23.4¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Negative Factor 1: Last Week Low Breakdown Status, 1.0000, Impact-Intense, Factor description Structural breakdown: whether the price falls below last week lowest price (0/1) Negative Factor 2: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0510, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 3: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0580, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Negative Factor 4: Weekly Price Change, -0.0290, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 5: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, -0.0580, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 6: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0390, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$84.1k Vol|

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest market data, the distribution is further concentrating towards the center, with ...

Log in to see more

This is a typical niche data market. While not extremely bizarre (given the high profile of Trump's social media activity), it involves betting on granular personal behavioral data rather than traditional macro events or financial outcomes, warranting a medium novelty score.

[Decision & Action] Momentum & Time Decay Judgment: Based on the percentage of time elapsed (e.g., 3 days into the period) versus the current actual post count, calculate the required daily posting rate needed to hit the high brackets (e.g., 160+). If the current rate is significantly below this requirement, determine if you should immediately "short" or sell the high-bracket options to capitalize on time decay.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the current odds distribution (e.g., are extreme options like 200+ or <20 overpriced?), check user discussions regarding Trump's recent Truth Social activity, and combine this with the current "xtracker" count to update the fair value projection for the final post total and potential arbitrage opportunities.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Historical Frequency Statistics & Specific Period Catalysts: Using xtracker or Truth Social historical data, calculate Trump's weekly average post count (including reposts) over the past month. Simultaneously, search for major political rallies, court dates, or holidays (e.g., Easter) between March 27 and April 3, 2026, to assess how these schedules specifically affect his posting frequency (e.g., rallies often trigger a burst of live-coverage style posts).

[Decision & Action] Momentum & Time Decay Judgment: Based on the percentage of time elapsed (e.g., 3 days into the period) versus the current actual post count, calculate the required daily posting rate needed to hit the high brackets (e.g., 160+). If the current rate is significantly below this requirement, determine if you should immediately "short" or sell the high-bracket options to capitalize on time decay.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the current odds distribution (e.g., are extreme options like 200+ or <20 overpriced?), check user discussions regarding Trump's recent Truth Social activity, and combine this with the current "xtracker" count to update the fair value projection for the final post total and potential arbitrage opportunities.

Politics|$15.1k Vol|

NYC Mayor # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on historical posting patterns of the official @NYCMayor account, it is primarily used for adm...

Log in to see more

The core risk lies in the definition of 'Replies' versus X's (formerly Twitter) display logic. While rules state 'Replies will NOT count,' X's Main Feed logic often categorizes subsequent tweets in a thread as replies, hiding them from the main profile tab unless self-retweeted. For a politician like Mamdani who likely posts long 'policy explainer threads,' a 20-tweet thread might only register as 1 count (the first tweet) on the tracker. Additionally, tracker API latency or missed captures remain a technical risk.

March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026: The price of the '20-39' option surged from 24c to 52c, the '<20' option plummeted from 51.5c to 20c, and all high-frequency buckets (100+) crashed from ~40c to under 10c. The reason is market normalization. The initial state featured artificial limit orders where almost all options were priced around 40c (a mathematical impossibility). As the tracking period neared and began, organic volume entered and violently corrected the pricing to reflect realistic official account post volumes (20-40 per week). March 24, 2026 - March 24, 2026: Due to the lack of prior history and the artificial uniformity of prices (all Yes ~0.40), the market appeared to be in a static, un-normalized initial state likely set by limit orders, with no organic price movements yet.

Retrieve the latest data for the "NYC Mayor Post Count" event, focusing on the order book spread and depth given the extremely low volume ($12.6) to assess liquidity risk, and analyze user discussions to determine if the market's expectation of Zohran Mamdani's posting habits is reasonable.

Politics|$11.5k Vol|

Ted Cruz # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on historical data, Ted Cruz is one of the most active X (formerly Twitter) users in the Senat...

Log in to see more

While the rules clarify post types (includes reposts/quotes, excludes replies), reliance on a third-party tracker (Polymarket xtracker) introduces technical risk. The clause regarding 'replies recorded on the main feed' is ambiguous and depends on X's opaque algorithms. Furthermore, whether deleted posts are captured depends on the tracker's scrape frequency, adding uncertainty.

This is a highly unconventional niche market. Most people do not typically ponder or forecast the exact tweet volume of a specific senator over a random week. It is a classic 'data trivia' market appealing to speculators interested in political social media habits.

Between March 24, 2026 and March 27, 2026, the Yes prices of '40-59', '60-79', '80-99', '100-119', '120-139', '140-159', '160-179', '180-199', and '200+' all crashed from ~40c to varying degrees. The reason is that after market initialization, liquidity began to flow in, and prices started to revert to a more reasonable probability distribution, breaking the initial stasis.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth given the low volume ($310) to assess slippage risk, and check the 'X Tracker' link to verify if the counter is capturing Ted Cruz's main feed posts and reposts in real-time without errors.

Culture|$8.1m Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Initial posting frequency data from the first day of the market indicates Elon Musk's daily average ...

Log in to see more

This is a classic Novelty market. Predicting the exact number of posts by a public figure over a future week falls under entertainment or behavioral psychology, lacking intrinsic economic logic, and is not a metric tracked by most standard market participants.

Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Elon Musk # tweets March 27 - April 3', and given the extremely low volume of $115, analyze the bid-ask spread and depth to determine if the current odds reflect genuine market sentiment or simply pricing inefficiencies due to illiquidity.

Politics|$45.2k Vol|

White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest price trends, the 160-179 bucket is currently priced the highest (42c), indicati...

Log in to see more

Betting on the volume of tweets from a government account over a specific week is an unconventional derivative market. While such markets have become more common since Elon Musk's takeover of X, it remains a niche market based on highly specific, unstructured behavior that the general public rarely quantifies naturally.

March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of '160-179' steadily rose from 39c to 42c, indicating slightly increased market confidence in this range. March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of '180-199' dropped from 31.5c to 23c, likely due to recent daily posting averages not meeting higher expectations. March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of '200+' dropped from 17c to 10.5c, further confirming the cooling of expectations for extremely high-frequency posting. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, prices across all options reverted from an anomalous uniform 40.5c to a normal market distribution, correcting the previous flat pricing caused by data or liquidity gaps.

[Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket event page, and given the extremely low volume (~$30), analyze the Order Book depth and bid-ask spreads, then combine this with historical posting data to assess the fair value of median options like '60-79' or '80-99'.

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Ethereum above ___ on April 3? - AI Found +25.6¢ Mispricing