Ethereum above ___ on April 30?
Crypto|$11.1k Vol|
time5 days 9 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on April 30? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+9.8¢
2,200(No)
+5.1¢
2,300(No)
+1.7¢
2,400(No)

Ethereum above ___ on April 30? AI analysis: • +9.8¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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VA-03 House Election Winner
Elections|$18.5k Vol|
time191 days 17 hrs

VA-03 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+7¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+5.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
VA-03 is a stronghold for the Democratic Party with a Cook PVI of D+17. Incumbent Congressman Bobby ...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'VA-03 House Election Winner', analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread considering the low volume (~$624), and assess if the current odds reflect the district's historical partisan lean or if there is mispricing due to illiquidity.
Highest temperature in Milan on April 25?
Weather|$34.0k Vol|
time5 hrs 47 mins

Highest temperature in Milan on April 25?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
25°C(Yes)
+0.5¢
27°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of the morning of April 25, 2026 (Milan local time), the daily maximum temperature will be reache...
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Movers
April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of '25°C' surged from 28.5c to 63.5c (currently around 56.5c), as the latest weather forecasts further confirmed 25°C as the most likely high temperature for today. April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of '24°C' plunged from 31c to 12.5c. As the day approached, forecast models shifted the temperature median upwards, reducing the probability of 24°C being the maximum. April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of '23°C' crashed from 14.5c to 1.2c, as real-time tracking and updated forecasts essentially ruled out a maximum temperature as low as 23°C.
AI Analysis
How exactly does Wunderground finalize the daily highest temperature for the Milan Malpensa Airport station, and how does the platform round the data if it is recorded as a decimal?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 25?
Weather|$24.0k Vol|
time5 hrs 47 mins

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 25?

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
28°C(Yes)
+3¢
26°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest weather forecasts indicate that the maximum temperature at Ben Gurion International Airpo...
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Exotics
Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a random day is uncommon in daily life but represents a relatively standard, albeit niche, category in prediction markets (weather betting). The general public rarely pays attention to this absent extreme weather events.
Movers
April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026: The price of the 27°C option climbed steadily from 27.5c to 47.5c. This upward trend was driven by the nearing expiration date and short-term weather forecasts confidently pointing toward a high of around 27°C. April 24, 2026: The 28°C option experienced high volatility, dropping sharply from a morning high of 44.5c to 11.5c in the afternoon, before recovering to around 29.5c. This was caused by temporary divergences in intraday updates across various weather models before consensus was re-established.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria and win/loss conditions for the Tel Aviv April 25 highest temperature event in the simplest terms (ELI5).
Highest temperature in Munich on April 25?
Weather|$39.0k Vol|
time5 hrs 47 mins

Highest temperature in Munich on April 25?

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
21°C(No)
+1.5¢
22°C or higher(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts predict a high of around 20°C (68°F) for Munich (and EDDM airport) on April...
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Movers
April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026: The price of the 19°C option plummeted from around 10.5c to 0.9c, as the latest short-term forecasts eliminated the possibility of an unusually cool afternoon. April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026: The '22°C or higher' option surged from 7.5c to a peak of 30.5c, and the 21°C option rose from 19.5c to 56.5c. This was driven by updated weather models confirming strong solar radiation, which is likely to cause localized higher-than-expected temperatures at the airport weather station.
Divergence
There is a notable divergence. Mainstream weather sites (e.g., AccuWeather, Google Weather) forecast a maximum temperature of around 20°C (68°F) for Munich Airport today. In contrast, the prediction market prices 21°C as the clear favorite (56% implied probability) and views 22°C+ as the second most likely outcome. This discrepancy is typically due to traders accounting for the 'tarmac effect' or microclimate at the specific EDDM weather station, which often records slightly higher peaks than regional forecasts.
AI Analysis
Is the Wunderground data for the Munich Airport (EDDM) station stable, and are there risks of data delays or outages?
White House # posts April 24 - May 1, 2026?
Politics|$13.8k Vol|
time6 days 9 hrs

White House # posts April 24 - May 1, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+36¢
100-119(Yes)
+35.5¢
160-179(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The official White House X account (@WhiteHouse) typically posts around 10-20 times per day. Over a ...
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Exotics
Predicting the specific range of tweet counts for a government social media account in a given week is a classic hyper-niche and trivial novelty topic. Prior to seeing this market, the general public would never think about or track such obscure data.
Movers
Between 16:03 and 17:08 on April 24, 2026, the Yes price for the 100-119 option spiked from 4.8c to 17.65c, and the 160-179 option rose from 24c to 32.5c, likely due to small orders causing extreme volatility in a very low liquidity market. No significant price movements exceeding 10c based on fundamental events were observed in the last 3 days. The current anomalous price distribution is mainly due to chronic illiquidity rather than sudden events.
Divergence
The Yes prices for extremely high posting ranges (e.g., 160-179, 200+) on Polymarket are abnormally high, implying a daily post frequency of over 25-30. This contradicts the White House's typical routine of 10-20 posts per day. This divergence is driven by price distortion due to extremely poor market liquidity, not a change in fundamental expectations.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for this market in simple terms, specifically detailing how quotes, reposts, replies, and deleted posts from the @WhiteHouse account will be counted by xtracker.polymarket.com.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
2,200
YesNo
83¢
18¢
72.2¢
27.8¢
0¢
+9.8¢
2,300
YesNo
57¢
47¢
47.9¢
52.1¢
0¢
+5.1¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0780, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0090, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, 0.0220, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0090, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 1: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0080, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

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Ethereum above ___ on April 30? - AI Mispricing Alert