Ethereum above ___ on April 8? - AI Mispricing Alert

Crypto|$11.4k Vol|

6 days 9 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on April 8? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+8.4¢

1,900(No)

+6.7¢

1,800(No)

+4¢

2,000(No)

Ethereum above ___ on April 8? AI analysis: • +8.4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$60.4k Vol|

Nebraska Governor Republican Primary Winner

Top Undervalued

Charles Herbster(No)

Jim Pillen(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Incumbent Governor Jim Pillen has significant advantages: incumbency, strong funding, and a 'Complet...

Log in to see more

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Nebraska Governor Republican Primary Winner', analyze the current odds distribution, bid/ask depth, and user discussions for Jacy Todd, Charles Herbster, and Jim Pillen. Combine this with the latest campaign dynamics of March 2026 to assess if there is clear arbitrage space or mispricing.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Nebraska Governor Republican Primary Winner', analyze the current odds distribution, bid/ask depth, and user discussions for Jacy Todd, Charles Herbster, and Jim Pillen. Combine this with the latest campaign dynamics of March 2026 to assess if there is clear arbitrage space or mispricing.

Politics|$39.7k Vol|

214 days 17 hrs

FL-01 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican Party(Yes)

Democratic Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Florida's 1st Congressional District (FL-01) is one of the most solid Republican strongholds in the ...

Log in to see more

While the market correctly predicts a Republican victory (92.5%), it still prices in an ~7.5% chance of an upset. In contrast, mainstream political forecasting models (like the Cook Political Report) rate FL-01 as 'Safe Republican,' implying a flip probability of less than 1%. The market pricing remains overly conservative relative to fundamentals, failing to fully reflect the certainty of the seat.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: The current date (March 2026) is approximately 8 months away from the November 4th resolution date. Based on the current odds for the "Republican Party," calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) if held to maturity. Compare this against current DeFi stablecoin yields or US Treasury rates to determine if locking up capital for 8 months is economically justified.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest political developments for Florida's 1st Congressional District (FL-01), specifically the status of the Republican incumbent/candidate (e.g., Matt Gaetz or successor). Given the low market volume ($1200+), analyze the depth of the bid-ask spread to identify mispricing caused by illiquidity, and assess if the "Republican Party" price accurately reflects the district's historically deep-red nature.

[General] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: FL-01 is historically a Republican stronghold (approx. R+19 PVI). Deliberately search for "Why Democrats could win FL-01 2026" or "Florida 1st District Republican scandals." List the Top 3 "Black Swan" bearish arguments (e.g., candidate federal indictment, significant vote-splitting by an Independent) that could theoretically cause a Republican loss, to hedge against blind bullishness.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: The current date (March 2026) is approximately 8 months away from the November 4th resolution date. Based on the current odds for the "Republican Party," calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) if held to maturity. Compare this against current DeFi stablecoin yields or US Treasury rates to determine if locking up capital for 8 months is economically justified.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest political developments for Florida's 1st Congressional District (FL-01), specifically the status of the Republican incumbent/candidate (e.g., Matt Gaetz or successor). Given the low market volume ($1200+), analyze the depth of the bid-ask spread to identify mispricing caused by illiquidity, and assess if the "Republican Party" price accurately reflects the district's historically deep-red nature.

Politics|$16.9k Vol|

214 days 17 hrs

MN-05 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

MN-05 (Minneapolis) is one of the safest Democratic strongholds in the nation, with a Cook PVI of D+...

Log in to see more

[Category 3] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the settlement date of November 4, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying the 'Democratic Party' outcome at current prices. Compare this ROI against the ~4-5% risk-free rate (e.g., T-bills or DeFi stablecoin yields) to determine if locking up capital until the midterms is economically rational compared to safe passive income.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Combine the latest Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Minnesota's 5th District with an analysis of the Polymarket order book depth and spread (given the low ~$9k volume). Assess the slippage risk for large entries on the 'Democratic Party' and determine if the current odds fully price in the fundamental reality of this district being a 'safe blue' seat.

[Category 1] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search for MN-05 congressional election results over the past decade to calculate the average margin of victory for Democratic candidates (e.g., Ilhan Omar). Use this data to statistically verify if a Republican flip is a 'Black Swan' event, and determine if the market is overpricing the Republican odds (i.e., is there any lottery value in the underdog option).

[Category 3] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the settlement date of November 4, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying the 'Democratic Party' outcome at current prices. Compare this ROI against the ~4-5% risk-free rate (e.g., T-bills or DeFi stablecoin yields) to determine if locking up capital until the midterms is economically rational compared to safe passive income.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Combine the latest Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Minnesota's 5th District with an analysis of the Polymarket order book depth and spread (given the low ~$9k volume). Assess the slippage risk for large entries on the 'Democratic Party' and determine if the current odds fully price in the fundamental reality of this district being a 'safe blue' seat.

Politics|$16.4k Vol|

214 days 17 hrs

CA-14 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Despite the open seat created by incumbent Eric Swalwell's gubernatorial run, CA-14 remains a deep b...

Log in to see more

Market pricing (92.5%) diverges from mainstream political forecasting (e.g., Cook Political Report rates it Safe Democrat, >99%). This spread reflects a liquidity discount for the 7-month capital lockup in prediction markets, rather than a genuine probability of a Republican upset.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and, given the extremely low volume of $595.65 for CA-14, analyze the current bid-ask spread and depth. Is there obvious mispricing (e.g., Democrat odds below 90%)? Combine this with the context of CA-14 being Eric Swalwell's (Democrat) deep blue district to assess if current prices offer risk-free arbitrage opportunities.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and, given the extremely low volume of $595.65 for CA-14, analyze the current bid-ask spread and depth. Is there obvious mispricing (e.g., Democrat odds below 90%)? Combine this with the context of CA-14 being Eric Swalwell's (Democrat) deep blue district to assess if current prices offer risk-free arbitrage opportunities.

Elections|$18.3k Vol|

214 days 17 hrs

NY-20 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

NY-20 (Albany area) is a traditional Democratic stronghold (Cook PVI D+7) with a secure incumbent, P...

Log in to see more

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of November 4, 2026 (months away), calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital. Compare the potential ROI of betting on the current favorite (presumably the Democratic party) against the risk-free return of depositing the same amount into a DeFi protocol (like Aave/Compound) for stablecoin yield (approx. 4-5% APY), to determine if the trade remains Positive EV after deducting time costs.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest page data for the NY-20 House Election. Given the low liquidity of only $1500.34, strictly analyze the bid-ask spread and order book depth to determine if the current price reflects actual polling shifts or simply mispricing due to illiquidity. Also, combine this with the district's historical Partisan Voting Index (PVI) (traditionally a Democratic stronghold) to assess if the current odds offer a reasonable risk premium.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest ratings for 'New York's 20th Congressional District (NY-20)' from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, or Inside Elections (e.g., 'Solid Democrat' vs. 'Toss-up'). Compare these professional agency ratings with the current win probabilities on Polymarket to quantitatively analyze if there is a massive arbitrage opportunity caused by low market attention.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of November 4, 2026 (months away), calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital. Compare the potential ROI of betting on the current favorite (presumably the Democratic party) against the risk-free return of depositing the same amount into a DeFi protocol (like Aave/Compound) for stablecoin yield (approx. 4-5% APY), to determine if the trade remains Positive EV after deducting time costs.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest page data for the NY-20 House Election. Given the low liquidity of only $1500.34, strictly analyze the bid-ask spread and order book depth to determine if the current price reflects actual polling shifts or simply mispricing due to illiquidity. Also, combine this with the district's historical Partisan Voting Index (PVI) (traditionally a Democratic stronghold) to assess if the current odds offer a reasonable risk premium.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

1,900

YesNo

83¢

18¢

73.6¢

26.4¢

0¢

+8.4¢

1,800

YesNo

93.7¢

7.1¢

86.2¢

13.8¢

0¢

+6.7¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Positive Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0420, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0070, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, 0.0780, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0070, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 5: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0290, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$60.4k Vol|

Nebraska Governor Republican Primary Winner

Top Undervalued

Charles Herbster(No)

Jim Pillen(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Incumbent Governor Jim Pillen has significant advantages: incumbency, strong funding, and a 'Complet...

Log in to see more

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Nebraska Governor Republican Primary Winner', analyze the current odds distribution, bid/ask depth, and user discussions for Jacy Todd, Charles Herbster, and Jim Pillen. Combine this with the latest campaign dynamics of March 2026 to assess if there is clear arbitrage space or mispricing.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Nebraska Governor Republican Primary Winner', analyze the current odds distribution, bid/ask depth, and user discussions for Jacy Todd, Charles Herbster, and Jim Pillen. Combine this with the latest campaign dynamics of March 2026 to assess if there is clear arbitrage space or mispricing.

Politics|$39.7k Vol|

214 days 17 hrs

FL-01 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican Party(Yes)

Democratic Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Florida's 1st Congressional District (FL-01) is one of the most solid Republican strongholds in the ...

Log in to see more

While the market correctly predicts a Republican victory (92.5%), it still prices in an ~7.5% chance of an upset. In contrast, mainstream political forecasting models (like the Cook Political Report) rate FL-01 as 'Safe Republican,' implying a flip probability of less than 1%. The market pricing remains overly conservative relative to fundamentals, failing to fully reflect the certainty of the seat.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: The current date (March 2026) is approximately 8 months away from the November 4th resolution date. Based on the current odds for the "Republican Party," calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) if held to maturity. Compare this against current DeFi stablecoin yields or US Treasury rates to determine if locking up capital for 8 months is economically justified.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest political developments for Florida's 1st Congressional District (FL-01), specifically the status of the Republican incumbent/candidate (e.g., Matt Gaetz or successor). Given the low market volume ($1200+), analyze the depth of the bid-ask spread to identify mispricing caused by illiquidity, and assess if the "Republican Party" price accurately reflects the district's historically deep-red nature.

[General] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: FL-01 is historically a Republican stronghold (approx. R+19 PVI). Deliberately search for "Why Democrats could win FL-01 2026" or "Florida 1st District Republican scandals." List the Top 3 "Black Swan" bearish arguments (e.g., candidate federal indictment, significant vote-splitting by an Independent) that could theoretically cause a Republican loss, to hedge against blind bullishness.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: The current date (March 2026) is approximately 8 months away from the November 4th resolution date. Based on the current odds for the "Republican Party," calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) if held to maturity. Compare this against current DeFi stablecoin yields or US Treasury rates to determine if locking up capital for 8 months is economically justified.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest political developments for Florida's 1st Congressional District (FL-01), specifically the status of the Republican incumbent/candidate (e.g., Matt Gaetz or successor). Given the low market volume ($1200+), analyze the depth of the bid-ask spread to identify mispricing caused by illiquidity, and assess if the "Republican Party" price accurately reflects the district's historically deep-red nature.

Politics|$16.9k Vol|

214 days 17 hrs

MN-05 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

MN-05 (Minneapolis) is one of the safest Democratic strongholds in the nation, with a Cook PVI of D+...

Log in to see more

[Category 3] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the settlement date of November 4, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying the 'Democratic Party' outcome at current prices. Compare this ROI against the ~4-5% risk-free rate (e.g., T-bills or DeFi stablecoin yields) to determine if locking up capital until the midterms is economically rational compared to safe passive income.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Combine the latest Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Minnesota's 5th District with an analysis of the Polymarket order book depth and spread (given the low ~$9k volume). Assess the slippage risk for large entries on the 'Democratic Party' and determine if the current odds fully price in the fundamental reality of this district being a 'safe blue' seat.

[Category 1] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search for MN-05 congressional election results over the past decade to calculate the average margin of victory for Democratic candidates (e.g., Ilhan Omar). Use this data to statistically verify if a Republican flip is a 'Black Swan' event, and determine if the market is overpricing the Republican odds (i.e., is there any lottery value in the underdog option).

[Category 3] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the settlement date of November 4, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying the 'Democratic Party' outcome at current prices. Compare this ROI against the ~4-5% risk-free rate (e.g., T-bills or DeFi stablecoin yields) to determine if locking up capital until the midterms is economically rational compared to safe passive income.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Combine the latest Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Minnesota's 5th District with an analysis of the Polymarket order book depth and spread (given the low ~$9k volume). Assess the slippage risk for large entries on the 'Democratic Party' and determine if the current odds fully price in the fundamental reality of this district being a 'safe blue' seat.

Politics|$16.4k Vol|

214 days 17 hrs

CA-14 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Despite the open seat created by incumbent Eric Swalwell's gubernatorial run, CA-14 remains a deep b...

Log in to see more

Market pricing (92.5%) diverges from mainstream political forecasting (e.g., Cook Political Report rates it Safe Democrat, >99%). This spread reflects a liquidity discount for the 7-month capital lockup in prediction markets, rather than a genuine probability of a Republican upset.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and, given the extremely low volume of $595.65 for CA-14, analyze the current bid-ask spread and depth. Is there obvious mispricing (e.g., Democrat odds below 90%)? Combine this with the context of CA-14 being Eric Swalwell's (Democrat) deep blue district to assess if current prices offer risk-free arbitrage opportunities.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and, given the extremely low volume of $595.65 for CA-14, analyze the current bid-ask spread and depth. Is there obvious mispricing (e.g., Democrat odds below 90%)? Combine this with the context of CA-14 being Eric Swalwell's (Democrat) deep blue district to assess if current prices offer risk-free arbitrage opportunities.

Elections|$18.3k Vol|

214 days 17 hrs

NY-20 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

NY-20 (Albany area) is a traditional Democratic stronghold (Cook PVI D+7) with a secure incumbent, P...

Log in to see more

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of November 4, 2026 (months away), calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital. Compare the potential ROI of betting on the current favorite (presumably the Democratic party) against the risk-free return of depositing the same amount into a DeFi protocol (like Aave/Compound) for stablecoin yield (approx. 4-5% APY), to determine if the trade remains Positive EV after deducting time costs.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest page data for the NY-20 House Election. Given the low liquidity of only $1500.34, strictly analyze the bid-ask spread and order book depth to determine if the current price reflects actual polling shifts or simply mispricing due to illiquidity. Also, combine this with the district's historical Partisan Voting Index (PVI) (traditionally a Democratic stronghold) to assess if the current odds offer a reasonable risk premium.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest ratings for 'New York's 20th Congressional District (NY-20)' from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, or Inside Elections (e.g., 'Solid Democrat' vs. 'Toss-up'). Compare these professional agency ratings with the current win probabilities on Polymarket to quantitatively analyze if there is a massive arbitrage opportunity caused by low market attention.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of November 4, 2026 (months away), calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital. Compare the potential ROI of betting on the current favorite (presumably the Democratic party) against the risk-free return of depositing the same amount into a DeFi protocol (like Aave/Compound) for stablecoin yield (approx. 4-5% APY), to determine if the trade remains Positive EV after deducting time costs.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest page data for the NY-20 House Election. Given the low liquidity of only $1500.34, strictly analyze the bid-ask spread and order book depth to determine if the current price reflects actual polling shifts or simply mispricing due to illiquidity. Also, combine this with the district's historical Partisan Voting Index (PVI) (traditionally a Democratic stronghold) to assess if the current odds offer a reasonable risk premium.

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is PolyPredict AI and how can I access it?

2. How does the AI determine the "Fair Value"?

3. What makes the "Arbitrage Plans" unique?

4. What is the difference between Event and Live Markets?

5. What are the key differences between the Free and Pro versions?

6. Can I use PolyPredict AI on Telegram?

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Market data provided by PolyMarket.

© 2026 SynthMind AI Limited.

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner

Apex Omni

PolyPredict AI Robot