Ethereum above ___ on March 26?
Crypto|$11.5k Vol|
time4 days 13 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on March 26? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+9.2¢
2,000(No)
+8.9¢
1,900(No)
+5.8¢
2,100(No)

Ethereum above ___ on March 26? AI analysis: • +9.2¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
Weather|$128.4k Vol|
time1 days 9 hrs

Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?

Top Undervalued
+2.6¢
34°C(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
6¢
Arbitrage
1460%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy '31°C or below' (66.5c) + Buy '32°C' (27.5c) Plan Description: This is a Low Risk Yield combination. Wunderground currently forecasts 31°C, while some local models...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
The core resolution source, Wunderground (IBM Data), currently forecasts 87°F (approx. 30.6°C) for L...
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Exotics
This is a typical weather derivative market. While focusing on the exact temperature of a specific city on a single day is somewhat niche for the general public, it falls within the common and mature 'natural events' category of prediction markets, rather than being an absurd or novelty question.
Movers
From March 19 to March 21, 2026, the price of '31°C or below' surged from 27.5c to 66.5c, as the market confirmed the cooling forecast following the actual rainfall on March 20, eliminating high-heat possibilities. From March 19 to March 21, 2026, prices for '33°C' and '34°C' crashed from ~17c to 5c and 3.9c respectively, because the evaporative cooling effect from post-rain soil moisture makes it extremely difficult for temperatures to rebound to 90°F+ in such a short window.
AI Analysis
Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the latest odds for Lucknow's March 23 temperature, cross-reference with the specific Wunderground forecast for the VILK station, and assess the order book depth and risk of price manipulation given the low volume of $255.
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 23?
Weather|$29.0k Vol|
time1 days 9 hrs

Highest temperature in Wellington on March 23?

Top Undervalued
+8.4¢
23°C or higher(No)
+6.5¢
22°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
MetService New Zealand, in its latest update issued at 10:10 AM on March 21, has explicitly upgraded...
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Movers
March 19, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of [23°C or higher] crashed from 25.5c to 6c, as the market corrected a likely geolocation error (confusing Wellington, NZ with warmer namesakes in SA or USA) and aligned with realistic NZ autumn expectations. March 19, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of [18°C] plummeted from 23.5c to 3c, as forecasts solidified around a high-pressure system bringing fine, warmer weather, eliminating the cold tail risk. March 19, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of [21°C] surged from 14.5c to 31.5c, as capital consolidated around the 20°C-22°C range following forecast upgrades from major agencies like MetService.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. MetService (NZ Official) explicitly forecasts a high of 22°C for Monday, whereas AccuWeather predicts only 66°F (~19°C). This 3°C gap has caused the market to spread liquidity across the 19°C-22°C range, with pricing currently favoring the compromise of 21°C (31.5c) and the official forecast of 22°C (25.5c). MetService's local models are typically superior at capturing Wellington's terrain-induced wind warming effects, suggesting AccuWeather may be underestimating the high.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page to analyze the extremely thin Order Book ($5 volume) and wide spreads; simultaneously, visit the designated Wunderground resolution link and cross-reference with MetService NZ to assess the fair value temperature range for March 23 and identify any significant odds discrepancies.
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 22?
Weather|$117.6k Vol|
time9 hrs 31 mins

Highest temperature in Toronto on March 22?

Top Undervalued
+1.1¢
12°C or below(Yes)
+0.4¢
13°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current Toronto time is 9 PM on March 21. The forecast for March 22 indicates a high temperature aro...
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Exotics
This is a specific date weather prediction market. While weather forecasting is common, betting on the exact temperature value for a specific city on a specific day is a niche 'novelty' market, appealing mostly to weather enthusiasts or locals, rather than the broad appeal of elections or sports.
Movers
March 18, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of '12°C or below' surged continuously from 65c to 99c. The reason was that as the forecast date approached, meteorological models eliminated earlier uncertainties, and the market corrected a previous misjudgment caused by erroneous Metcheck data (pointing to Toronto, Australia), finally confirming a consensus for cold weather (around 0-1°C).
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Retrieve the latest weather forecasts for Toronto on March 22, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth given the low volume ($10), assess the bid-ask spread, and determine if current odds are mispriced relative to meteorological data.
Denmark Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Politics|$17.5k Vol|
time1 days 21 hrs

Denmark Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

Top Undervalued
+14.5¢
Liberal Alliance(Yes)
+11.5¢
Danish People’s Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With only 3 days left until the March 24 election, polling (Verian/Megafon) has solidified: Social D...
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Movers
March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, Danish People’s Party surged anomalously from ~6c to 17c. This move lacks fundamental support (polls are unchanged) and likely stems from retail confusion regarding the '3rd Place' definition or pre-election speculative pumping. March 19, 2026 - March 21, 2026, Green Left experienced a rollercoaster, crashing to 7c, rebounding to 19c, and settling back to ~12c. This reflects extreme market uncertainty and liquidity games regarding whether they remain securely in 2nd or slip to 3rd. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, Conservative People’s Party experienced a flash spike to 12.8c before quickly reverting to a rational 1-2c range, primarily driven by illiquidity and irrational pricing.
Divergence
The primary divergence concerns the Danish People's Party (DF). Polymarket prices imply a 17% probability of them finishing 3rd, whereas all authoritative polls (Verian, Megafon) show them polling around 5%, far below the threshold for 3rd place (occupied by Liberal Alliance or Venstre at 9-11%). This suggests market participants are ignoring polling data or misunderstanding the ranking rules.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest polling data for the 2026 Danish Parliamentary election, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the liquidity risk behind the extremely low volume of $10, and combined with the specific '3rd Place' ranking rules, assess whether the current bid-ask spread offers any entry value or potential arbitrage opportunities.
Denmark Parliamentary Election Winner
Politics|$486.9k Vol|
time1 days 21 hrs

Denmark Parliamentary Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+0.7¢
Green Left(Yes)
+0.2¢
Social Democrats(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 2 days remaining until the Danish Parliamentary election on March 24, recent polling ...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Denmark Election Market Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the current odds and order book depth for major parties like the 'Social Democrats' and 'Liberal Alliance'. Combine this with the latest Danish polling data (e.g., Voxmeter or Epinion) to assess if the prices reflect the true race, specifically considering the potential impact of Faroese and Greenlandic seats on the final majority, and identify any arbitrage opportunities arising from low liquidity ($210.8 volume).
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
2,000
YesNo
73¢
30¢
60.8¢
39.2¢
0¢
+9.2¢
1,900
YesNo
89¢
14¢
77.1¢
22.9¢
0¢
+8.9¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Negative Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0590, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0180, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Negative Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, -0.0560, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, -0.0180, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 5: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0330, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

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Ethereum above ___ on March 26? - AI Mispricing Alert