Ethereum above ___ on March 28?
Crypto|$12.2k Vol|
time5 days 14 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on March 28? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+9.9¢
1,900(No)
+7.6¢
1,800(No)
+3¢
2,100(No)

Ethereum above ___ on March 28? AI analysis: • +9.9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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U.S. nuclear test by...?
Geopolitics|$545.3k Vol|
time7 days 22 hrs

U.S. nuclear test by...?

Top Undervalued
+0.9¢
March 31, 2026(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
0¢
Arbitrage
41.4%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' Plan Description: The current 'No' price is 99.1 cents, implying a 0.9% return. Given that there are only 8 days left ...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
With only 8 days remaining until the March 31 settlement date, conducting a qualifying underground n...
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Exotics
This is a highly exotic and unconventional question. The US has not conducted a yield-producing nuclear test since 1992 (only subcritical experiments). While geopolitical tensions are high, breaking a 30+ year moratorium within a 48-day window represents a drastic and largely unexpected scenario.
Hedging
Crude Oil
US 10Y Yield
Gold
S&P 500
Bitcoin
If the US were to conduct a nuclear test, it would be a massive escalation in global security tensions, signaling a breakdown in nuclear non-proliferation norms and triggering extreme risk-off sentiment. Gold would likely skyrocket as the ultimate safe haven. Equities (S&P 500) would likely crash due to panic selling. US Treasury yields would experience high volatility due to a flight to safety. This qualifies as an extreme 'Black Swan' event with financial impact comparable to the outbreak of a major war.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket event page to analyze the current bid-ask spread and order book depth. Combined with the recent 394k volume, assess the market's pricing of the 'US resuming nuclear testing' probability, and determine if there is irrational price volatility driven by recent geopolitical news (e.g., Russia/China actions).
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 23?
Weather|$23.4k Vol|
time1 days 10 hrs

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 23?

Top Undervalued
+10.5¢
26°C(Yes)
+10.5¢
29°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the event date (March 23) approaches, forecast uncertainty has significantly decreased. The marke...
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Movers
Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 22, 2026, '30°C or higher' crashed from 36c to 5c, and '29°C' fell from 29.5c to 10c. The reason is that as the resolution date neared, mainstream weather models did not validate the extreme heat scenario, causing the speculative bubble based on AccuWeather data to burst. Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 22, 2026, '27°C' surged from ~24c to a peak of 41.5c (settling at 37c), as capital fled the collapsing high-heat options and flowed back into the reasonable range aligned with mainstream forecasts (IBM/Wunderground). Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 21, 2026, '25°C' crashed from 26c to 1.25c, indicating the market's complete abandonment of lower-median temperature possibilities early on.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest weather forecasts for Shenzhen Bao'an Airport (ZGSZ) for March 23, 2026, and analyze the Order Book for this low-volume ($170) event to determine if current odds diverge significantly from meteorological predictions.
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 24?
Weather|$14.7k Vol|
time1 days 10 hrs

Highest temperature in Toronto on March 24?

Top Undervalued
+24.5¢
6°C or higher(No)
+9.5¢
3°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest forecast from Environment Canada (updated evening of Mar 21) explicitly predicts a high o...
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Movers
Throughout March 22, 2026, [6°C or higher] experienced significant over-speculation and subsequent pullback. The price peaked at 44.5c at 10:10 AM before retracing to 39c in the evening. This indicates that speculative capital attempted to pump this option despite a lack of supporting meteorological data, followed by profit-taking as fundamentals (forecasts of 3-5°C) held firm. From the early morning to late morning of March 21, 2026, [6°C or higher] climbed from 25.5c to over 36c, showing a market sentiment decoupling from official forecasts which remained anchored in the 3°C-5°C range.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Polymarket prices imply a ~40% probability for '6°C or higher', making it the favorite. Conversely, authoritative sources (Environment Canada) forecast a high of only 3°C, and commercial apps (The Weather Network) forecast 5°C. No major model supports temperatures exceeding 6°C, suggesting the market is pricing the event 2-3°C warmer than scientific consensus.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for this Event to analyze the Order Book and bid-ask spread given the extremely low volume ($5.0), and update the assessment of fair value based on the latest weather forecasts for Toronto Pearson Airport (CYYZ).
Highest temperature in Denver on March 24?
Weather|$13.9k Vol|
time1 days 10 hrs

Highest temperature in Denver on March 24?

Top Undervalued
+22¢
82-83°F(Yes)
+15.5¢
80-81°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Latest forecasts (Google, AccuWeather, 9News, NWS) consistently pinpoint the high temperature for De...
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Movers
March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of 82-83°F surged from 10c to 36c (settling at 28.5c) as weather forecast consensus solidified around the 82-83°F range closer to the date. March 21, 2026, the price of 80-81°F crashed from 41.5c to 15c as the market realized previous forecasts were too cool and capital rotated into warmer options. March 21, 2026, the price of 78-79°F saw high volatility, initially spiking from 11c to 28.5c before fading as updated forecasts pointed to higher temperatures.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for "Highest temperature in Denver" to analyze the order book activity given the low $209 volume, and verify the latest Wunderground forecast to determine if the market is accurately pricing the probabilities of the temperature ranges.
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23?
Indicies|$98.4k Vol|
time18 hrs 38 mins

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23?

Top Undervalued
+14.5¢
(Down)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current time is Sunday 22:11 UTC (18:11 ET), meaning US equity index futures (ES) have just opened. ...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for 'S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23' on Polymarket, combine it with post-Friday close S&P 500 futures (ES) trends and weekend news developments, and update the fair value assessment and arbitrage strategies for the 'Up' option.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
1,900
YesNo
80¢
20¢
70.1¢
29.9¢
0¢
+9.9¢
1,800
YesNo
90.5¢
9.5¢
82.9¢
17.1¢
0¢
+7.6¢

Expand to view all 10 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Negative Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0540, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0210, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Negative Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, -0.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, -0.0210, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 5: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0200, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

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