Ethereum above ___ on March 29?
Crypto|$318.3k Vol|
time4 days 7 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on March 29? - AI Found +16.8¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+16.8¢
2,100(No)
+16.6¢
2,000(No)
+6.7¢
2,200(No)

Ethereum above ___ on March 29? AI analysis: • +16.8¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Highest temperature in Toronto on March 25?
Weather|$35.2k Vol|
time3 hrs 2 mins

Highest temperature in Toronto on March 25?

Top Undervalued
+13¢
7°C(No)
+5.5¢
6°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest Environment Canada forecast for nearby Oakville predicts a high of 6°C for March 25. Give...
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Movers
On March 23, 2026, the price of [6°C] surged from ~20c to 31c, while [5°C] remained strong. This move was driven by updated meteorological models (e.g., Environment Canada forecasting 6°C for Oakville) as the 36-hour window approached, shifting the market consensus from the cooler 4-5°C range towards the warmer 5-6°C range. From March 21-22, 2026, [10°C or higher] crashed from 25.5c to single digits as forecast certainty increased, eliminating the tail risk of extreme heat.
Divergence
Yes. The market favors [6°C] (31c), while the specific resolution source (Wunderground) currently forecasts 41°F (5°C) and local media (CP24) also predicts 5°C. This divergence suggests traders are betting on underlying meteorological trends (like the latest Environment Canada updates) and the 'inland heat island' effect to push the observed temperature slightly higher than current app forecasts.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event, and given the extremely low volume of $20, analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity depth, then update the fair value assessment of temperature ranges based on the latest GFS/ECMWF weather model forecasts.
Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election Winner
Politics|$35.2k Vol|
time15 hrs 2 mins

Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
People's Party(Yes)
+3.1¢
Union Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest data from authoritative pollster Spyr.fo (Feb/Mar 2026), the opposition Peop...
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Exotics
The Faroe Islands is a small autonomous territory. While an election is a standard political event, it is relatively niche for a global audience, making it a typical 'long-tail' geopolitical market.
Movers
March 20, 2026 - March 23, 2026: The price of the People's Party surged from 43.5c to 95c, while the Social Democratic Party crashed from 41c to 1c, and the Union Party collapsed from 40.5c to 2c. The reason is a massive market correction, finally digesting the polling reality that projected the People's Party winning 12 seats versus single digits for rivals. Previously mispriced as a tight three-way race (each ~40c), the market rapidly repriced to reflect the People's Party's absolute dominance as the election date approached and Spyr.fo data was validated.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest polling data for the 2026 Faroe Islands election, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spread given the extremely low volume of $210, and assess if the odds for favorites like the 'Social Democratic Party' deviate from fair value.
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 25?
Weather|$419.1k Vol|
time3 hrs 2 mins

Highest temperature in Seoul on March 25?

Top Undervalued
+67.5¢
13°C(No)
+34.8¢
14°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market significantly overvalues '15°C or higher' (current price 52.5c). While consumer apps like...
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Exotics
This is a typical weather prediction market. For the general public, betting on the specific temperature of a specific day is a niche novelty, not a mainstream topic, though it is relatively common within prediction market communities.
Movers
March 24, 2026 (03:45 to 07:00), the price of '15°C or higher' crashed from 66.5c to 49c. This correction was likely driven by morning model updates confirming a strong 'sea breeze cooling effect' for the 25th, dampening the excessive optimism generated by the previous day's warmth. March 23, 2026 (Intraday), '15°C or higher' surged from 46c to 61c due to the realized temperature hitting 15°C that day. This created a strong 'Recency Bias,' where traders incorrectly extrapolated the warm air mass persistence to the 25th without accounting for wind shifts.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Consumer weather apps (e.g., Google Weather) forecast 15°C for Incheon, supporting the market's high pricing of '15°C+' (~52%). However, professional aviation models (TAF/Windy), accounting for the airport's specific offshore wind conditions, forecast only 13°C. The market appears to be pricing based on generic forecasts rather than specialized micro-climate models.
AI Analysis
[Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment] Retrieve the latest data for the "Highest temperature in Seoul on March 25" market, and given the extremely low volume ($20), specifically analyze the slippage risk from the bid-ask spread and assess the fair value of current temperature odds against the latest weather forecasts.
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?
Finance|$12.5k Vol|
time6 days 12 hrs

Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?

Top Undervalued
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market price (76 cents) largely reflects the probability of beating conservative estimat...
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Hedging
NKE
This event directly drives the stock price of Nike (NKE). Earnings days typically trigger significant intraday volatility for the specific stock (often around 5%, hence Score 3), making it a direct target for single-stock options or spot hedging. While Nike is a key consumer stock, the impact of a single earnings report on broad indices (like S&P 500) is diluted and negligible.
AI Analysis
Mandatory Task: Visit the Polymarket page for this Nike (NKE) earnings prediction event to analyze the depth of the Order Book and core disagreements in user comments, then update your assessment of the fair value for the 'Yes' option based on the latest market consensus.
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?
Weather|$66.7k Vol|
time1 days 3 hrs

Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?

Top Undervalued
+20.5¢
17°C(No)
+19¢
18°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Consolidating latest forecasts from Weather.com (Google) and AccuWeather, the projected high tempera...
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Movers
March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of the '18°C' option crashed from 27c to 10.5c. This sharp decline contradicts meteorological forecasts (maintaining 18°C), likely due to traders misinterpreting 'rain' forecasts affecting high temps or panic selling amidst low liquidity. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of the '16°C' option surged from 17c to 32.5c, indicating market capital is incorrectly betting on a result cooler than mainstream forecasts. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the '15°C' option experienced high volatility, spiking from 16.5c to 27.5c before retracing to 17c.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream meteorological sources (Weather.com, AccuWeather) explicitly forecast a high of 18°C (65°F) for Thursday, March 26, with some sources suggesting 19°C. However, current market pricing implies 16°C is the most likely outcome (~30%), while devaluing the forecasted 18°C to only ~10%. This discrepancy offers massive Expected Value (EV) for traders trusting scientific forecasts.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest specific temperature forecast for Shanghai Pudong Airport (ZSPD) for March 26, 2026, from the designated Wunderground link, and analyzing the extremely low market volume (~5.71), assess whether the order book odds accurately reflect the meteorological forecast or if there is mispricing due to illiquidity.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
2,100
YesNo
73¢
30¢
53.2¢
46.8¢
0¢
+16.8¢
2,000
YesNo
90¢
12¢
71.4¢
28.6¢
0¢
+16.6¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0050, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0230, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, 0.0500, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0230, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 5: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0170, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

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